I dunno who will still be around in 100 years, but if there’s any justice in this world, Britney Spears will be long forgotten. I think we’ll still listen to The Beatles, The Rolling Stones, Led Zepplin, etc., but we’ll think of their music in the way that we think of Classical music now - it will seem really old and only nerds and music professors will listen to it. But I think that in one hundred years, we’ll know who the really great musicians are because all of the less than spectacular artists will have faded into obscurity.
Good Lord, Cisco. 311? You must be kidding, right? I’ve seen them three times, and I’m already starting to forget who they are. I seriously don’t think their music will last.
Let’s not forget show tunes. I cannot image a world where an Andrew Lloyd Webber musical isn’t playing somewhere.
As for whose music I think will be around for a long time:
John Coltrane
Johnny Cash
Miles Davis
Willie Nelson
Patsy Cline
Ella Fitzgerald
Louis Armstrong
Duke Ellington
Frank Sinatra
The Beatles (don’t venerate them, but I’d be silly not to recognize their influence)
James Brown
Marvin Gaye
I also happen to think that this past century has seen radical musical change, and that forms of music from the earlier parts of the century served as stepping stones for later types. This has been aided by technology, but that’s another thread. Therefore, in a very real way, some of the earlier forms of music will live on through their influence on the later music. A particular artist of today may be all but forgotten, but their influence on more famous latecomers may be invaluable. Some examples (IMHO) of these types of artists are:
Nina Simone (still sings in Atlantic City, and is unbelievably expressive and prolific, but no one seems to remember her…sigh.)
Robert Johnson
Howlin’ Wolf
Mississippi John Hurt
W.C. Handy
Leadbelly
There are thousands of others I could name. In a manner of speaking, we’ll be listening to these people’s music for a long time to come, whether we know it or not.
Ogre - the reason i think 311 will be around…well, first let me say they may not be around in 100 years (but then again i personally dont believe the human race will be around in 100 years) but they will be around for awhile. I kind of think of them as my generations Rolling Stones. Like, i saw them when i was a teenager and i would bet my kids will probably see them when they are teenagers. The reason is they tour, all the time, and when they arent touring theyre making an album. They make albums to promote their tours and then they tour to promote their albums. All they know is music, none of them have ever had “real” jobs and after 12 years of making music and touring they show absolutely no sign of slowing down. Personally i think they are just getting started but thats just ‘my humble opinion’
I’ve noticed that no one has really listed any Reggae, what about Fredrick “Toots” Hibbert? (he literally invented reggae) i think his music will live forever, at least in me.
By the way Ogre, my great uncle knew Huddy Ledbetter. Isnt that cool?
Ike, you, Eve, and I are anti1quarians, as well as oddballs, and the fact that we listen to crap like Rudy Vallee means nothing in the greater scheme of things.
I am not so sure about the survivability of the Beatles, for instance. Interest is already waning. If you doubt that then count the number of Beatle songs you hear in one day.
I know that I asked for citations of specific artists and songs rather than genres. Perhaps I should broaden that. I only chose the specific because my assistant was playing some Ella Fitzgerald and I was thinking that she has stood the test of time better than the music of her contemporaries. This was because of her undoubtable talent. Sinatra, OTOH, was not much of a singer and few people younger than sixty can see his appeal.
Asking about specific artists also skews the results because so much depends on their interpretation of the material. This is especially unfair to those artists who write their own music. Like Sinatra, Bob Dylan’s singing is an acquired taste. Notwithstanding the occasional success of covers like Guns n Roses’, will his music still speak to our great-grandchildren?
Greater permanence can be gained by songwriters like Porter and the Gershwins, or even Webber (gaak!), simply because their music can be reinterpreted by succeeding generations. They are not tied to the moment, like Dylan or the Beatles are to the Sixties. Robert Johnson’s influence is still far greater than his success while alive, and he may be rediscovered by subsequent generations.
I, however, am still trying to accept CSN&Y as a permanent part of the musical landscape. (I don’t think so.) And any continued interest in 311 beyond next spring is unlikely. But Ogre’s list is pretty close to mine.
Cisco, that’s very cool. BTW, I agree with you about Toots and the Maytalls. I should be ashamed of myself for not putting them in my second list.
Anyhow, my definition for “lasting music” (and I know this is all IMHO) is music which is readily accessible to all types of listeners, deeply emotional, and at least somewhat original. I used to be a big 311 fan. The first time I saw them, I’d never heard of them, and I was blown away. They played a three-hour show, and I couldn’t stop dancing. It was one of those shows where I simultaneously didn’t want them to stop, and I was praying that they would, because I was exhausted, dehydrated, and feeling much like a burnt potato chip. I went out promptly and bought both “Music” and “Grassroots.” I was disappointed. I didn’t hear that fantastic spontaneity. I heard a lot of “filler” songs that sounded alike. It sounded overblown, and I didn’t hear that “catch,” the one song that you can’t stop listening to. Later, after they’d changed up their sound, I saw them again, loved them again, and bought the third album. Again, I was disappointed. It just wasn’t memorable. Now, they’ll live in my memory as a fantastic live band, but unless they can record that perfect album, the magnum opus, they one where it doesn’t sound like monotonous, overproduced fuzz, I doubt they’ll have that large an impact.
Again, IMHO. 
Counting the ones that play on the oldies station, the classic rock station, the easy listening station, the new rock station (new songs by old Beatles), and my Napster playlist, I can hear anywhere from 10-40 Beatles songs in one day.
A good criterion for a lasting musical group is if they get significant playtime on a variety of radio stations.
Diver
NOT MUCH OF A SINGER???
(and, yes, I’m way younger than sixty)
I once heard Frank and Ella live, together. It was the most awesome concert I’ve ever been to. They are both truly immortal.