It’s given that ten years from now Brittany Spears will be Brittany Who? and N’Sync will be heard as often as Menudo and The New Kids on the Block. It’s ephemeral music and not intended for the ages.
Classic Rock will die with the Boomers like Big Bands are dying with The Greatest Generation. Rap has a couple more years and it will be gone, the difference being that it will not even be listened to by those who listen to it now–it’s tough getting old!
But what of our contemporary music will be listened to fifty or a hundred years from now? Is all modern music made for the moment, only to vanish after a few years? Some have called Jazz our modern classical music, but much of the NEW stuff sounds pretty dated already, much less the old stuff.
So specifics, people. What music of the 20th century will be enjoyed by non-antiquarians at the end of the 21st?
I’ve lived through various stages of pop, rock and roll, heavy metal, disco, punk, new wave, new age, new romantic, bubblegum, acid, funk, rap, hip hop, et al. There’s been pretty much only one constant throughout my life as far as music (other than classical and “regular” jazz):
Country.
I’m not a big fan, and I don’t know the names of any artists in particular (not counting Shania, Faith and the other divas) but I’m guessing classic country will be around forever.
Who will still be listened to in a hundred years? Twenty? I’m looking for specifics. Clue: It won’t be Van Halen.
Do you listen to Country recorded fifty years ago? Who besides Hank Williams? Is he “for the ages?” Is proto-Country from the 1920s interesting to the average listener?
The average listener has heard of Bach and Mozart. He can identify a Beethoven composition–maybe two. That was music for the ages. But for every Mozart there were plenty of Salieris–competent, more popular in their day, even. But they became footnotes in musical history and filler during slow parts of the Classical music day.
Actually, I don’t regularly listen to anything from fifty years ago.
But despite the fact that, as I mentioned, I am not a country music fan per se, I do, in fact, have CD’s of Williams and Cline. Not exactly timeless, but certainly not forgotten.
How about Johnny Cash?
Other possibilities: George Jones (if nothing else, I imagine He Stopped Loving Her Today has a good chance of sticking around), Roger Miller, Merle Haggard
Almost everybody knows a Hank Williams song or two; same for Bob Dylan. They might not know it’s Hank or Bob, but then you say Beethoven counts, and many people don’t know it’s Beethoven but they do know the music. shrug Ask somebody if they know any Hank Williams songs. If they say no, sing a few bars of “Your Cheatin’ Heart” or “Hey Good Lookin’”. Everybody knows Hank Williams, even the young’uns.
I’m going to cast my vote for Buddy Holly, Elvis, and the Beatles (to name a few) based on the criteria presented by racinchikki. Even if someone couldn’t name a song by these musicians, chances are they would recognize the music.
In general, I think a greater percentage of music from this century will “last”, as opposed to the music created in the era of Mozart. They had sheet music and live performance. The average person did not see a performance of a Mozart opera during Mozart’s lifetime. It took years for his music to spread through Europe, and later, the world. With current technology, billions of people have access to radio, and millions have access to the internet. Even within this century, we have gone from having two or three radio stations from which to choose … to Napster. If you never listened to a CD again, you would still hear music every day, in commercials, in soundtracks to TV show and movies, at bars and restaurants, at political conventions (!!) Without regard to the quality of the music, there will simply be more ways to preserve the music of today.
And I’m not sure that big band music is dying at all, if anything, it’s experiencing a new popularity.
Ultimately, good songwriting will make the difference. When all the fads and nostalgia are gone, a good, solidly written piece of music will stick around.
I will discuss this in terms of “classic rock,” for obvious reasons.
Knocking on Heaven’s Door by Bob Dylan has been re-recorded and covered countless times since it was originally released. It is a great song. (My favorite version: Guns’n’Roses!) In 100 years, I doubt anyone will be listening to Axl and the boys. But I wouldn’t be surprised if some version of that song was still around.
“Good Songwriting” is subjective, of course, but I’d like to propose two criteria:
Wide Appeal
The song should be like by a wide variety of people of different ages and backgrounds. The latest Britney song may be popular, but its appeal is mainly limited to one group.
Cover-ability
A “good song” should be able to be performed well by different people. Much of today’s popular music depends on the charisma of the performer for its appeal–the song and the video and the performer are bound together. I doubt anyone will be covering Britney’s songs.
What will survive? Songs by Bob Dylan and Paul Simon and John Hiatt and Carole King and the Beatles. What won’t survive? Sadly, I don’t think they’ll still be listening to Pink Floyd and Led Zeppelin in 100 years.
In terms of not-classic-rock, I think we can count on a lot of the Broadway show-tune repertoire hanging around. I agree that a lot of “classic country” will remain popular. We will still be listening to Gershwin in 100 years. We will still like “Take the A Train.” Motown will never die.
But today’s “divas,” like Celine Dion and Barbra Streisand will seem as dated then as Jenny Lind does now.
BTW–The Big Bands are definitely not “dying.” How could you say that, what with the humongous swing-dancing craze of the last few years?
van Halen is your example for classic rock?
You want specifics? Rolling Stones, Beatles, Led Zeppelin, Allman Brothers, CSN&Y, etc etc. These are all people that are still playing and still popular. They not only will still be popular in 20 years but long after that. Their music has real instruments(a rarity today), actual singing that doesn’t make your head hurt, and (gasp) they can put on a good live show! And get this folks, the people who write the music are singing it!
Ray Charles. Elvis. Johnny Cash. Hank Williams. Patsy Cline. The Beatles.
I guarantee you these will survive. Some of this has already been around for 50 years and there’s no reason to think it’ll be gone in another 50. As far as comtemporary bands, who knows? Tell you what. I’ll stick around for a couple’a hundred more years and find out for you.
Well I think you have your answer. Your OP seems to be asking what genre will survive. But experience seem to show only the very best of ANY genre is interesting forever.
I think people will still listen to Bob Marley in 100 years.
And, ok, no one is going to understand my reasoning for this so go ahead and kick me in the ass but…i think people will still listen to 311 in 100 years too.
IMHO, Artie Shaw and HIS band could beat Benny’s boys black and blue. And that’s just comparing honky clarinet-playing bandleaders. Now, if you want to bring Jimmy Lunceford and Count Basie into it…
Wait, I gotta ask…what do you mean by “survive?”
Which music will be taught in university-level music history classes? Which music will be kept in print by the record/CD companies? Which music will still have the teenagers boppin’ and finger-poppin’?
Oddballs like Eve and me still put on Rudy Vallee records and sing along to “The Maine Stein Song” and “Betty Co-Ed.” Does Rudy Vallee therefore count as a “survivor,” seventy years after his heyday? Or does the fact the 49 out of fifty people you’d ask in the street have never heard of him count him out?
Right now I’m listening to Josef Suk’s ASRAEL SYMPHONY, first performed in Prague in 1907. Fewer people have heard of Suk than of Vallee. Does this make Vallee the greater figure in the history of music?
The music that survives is entirely dependant on who listens to it and how committed they are to continueing to perform and listen to it. That being said …
JS Bach is a great example of fabulous, interesting music that nearly died out. I have no specific cite for this, but I remember reading that his music fell out of fashion after his death and was not really even continued by his own children, some of whom became composers in their own right. Anyway, I believe Carl Maria Von Weber is credited with rescueing JS Bach from the music waste-bin, and rescucitating interest in the technical and mathmatical genius that exists in his music.
I do believe that a quality piece of music (playability, crowd appeal, uniqueness are all a factor) has a better chance of surviving now because of the overwhelming availability of recordings and print music. Some things I expect my great-grandchildren to still listen to:
JS Bach (we’ve got him back and he’s here to stay)
Vivaldi
Handel
Beethoven
Mozart
Brahms
Stravinsky
Wagner (and it pains me to say that)
Copeland
(FTR I think that impressionist composers may not last – Debussy and Ravel are wonderful but they just don’t seem to get the play time)
Selected tunes by the Beatles, Rolling Stones, Bob Dylan, etc.
Big Band sound never died at my house and I expect that it will continue to get it’s share of popularity in a waxing and waning fashion. Jazz greats like Duke Ellington, Louis Armstrong, and Dizzy Gilespie can be re-played ad infinitum in High School and Community Jazz Programs around the country.
I’m also placing a bet for Hank Williams, George Jones, Patsy Cline, and Johnny Cash.
Re-makes keep a lot of songs alive. Films keep a lot of classical and jazz music alive. For that matter, John Williams will probably have many of his film scores used over again someday in a different context.
I agree that too many people seem to be thinking only mainstream pop when they think music. Although people may be unclear on the Rat Pack, they’ll still be listening to standards by Sinatra, Tony Bennett, Margaret Whiting, Julie Wilson, Shirley Vaughn, etc. I don’t think their numbers will be very large, of course, but the recordings will still be obtainable in whatever medium exists then.
Musical theatre will still be around: the 45-year-old “Bells Are Ringing” is being revived next year on Broadway, for example, and community and regional groups might still be doing “Grease” (1976), “Cabaret” (1966), “Annie Get Your Gun” (1946), “Showboat” (1927), “Company” (1970), “Fiddler on the Roof” and “Hello Dolly”(1964), etc. With my luck stuff like “Cats” and “Miss Saigon” will also get revived, but somehow I don’t think they’ll survive as well. Sucess d’estime stuff like “Saturday Night Fever” and “Footloose” probably won’t make it but decent pop like “Aida” might be around. Of course, all this stuff will probably sound pretty different covered by actors born in 2070 or so!
And, having watched “Avalon” on Encore last night, I hope Randy Newman’s stuff will always find a new audience.
