It occurs to me that several of the picks I’d made or heard bandied about in armchair-handicapping O’Connor’s replacement were Fifth Circuit judges - both of the Ediths, for example, and Emilio Garza. (The Fifth Circuit, of course, is seated in New Orleans.)
Regardless of the high-minded discussion of filling the vacancy with the best judge available, there have been changes in the political climate which will likely be reflected in President Bush’s nominee to fill Justice O’Connor’s seat. For one, even Laura Bush suggested that replacing O’Connor with a woman would have been desirable; I was quite surprised to see a white male nominated for the seat. President Bush essentially gets a do-over on this one. Considering that Edith Brown Clement (did I get that one right?) was considered so close to being nominated that one of the major networks - ABC, I believe it was - went out of its way to mention that she had not been nominated, is it likely that she’ll get the nod here for political reasons in addition to her expertise and judicial philosophy?
Would the President be as well-served politically by nominating a minority male judge? I’ve heard Emilio Garza mentioned as a Hispanic strict constructionist. The Miguel Estrada debacle is still fresh in some voters’ minds, and nominating Garza would seem to be a significant way for Bush to rally Hispanic voters.
Is there much to be gained by nominating a Fifth Circuit judge to the Supreme Court? Are different issues at play in handicapping this nomination than were involved in the original round?