So what’s going to happen to Powell? Is he going to go into retirement? I’m wondering if he’s a prime contender for the VP slot once the incumbent resigns, followed by a presidential campaign. OK so he appears to have been wrong about WMD, but that is explainable in several ways - and it’s amazing how disarming a simple admission can be.
So Powell has two years in the ‘wilderness’, ‘finding himself’. Cheney then resigns for health reasons and Powell steps in. In 2008 he runs with Condoleeza as his running mate. How are the Dems going to react to - let alone counter - that?
He’d be 71 in 2008, almost certainly too old. His last realistic chance to run was in 2000, and both the stated and speculated reasons for his demurral then would still apply. Add to that the loss of his credibility as a truth-teller, and the loss of his credibility as a forceful, effective leader, and there’s no way.
I think both Condoleeza and Powell are pro-choice. If so, then that would make it very unlikely that they would be choosen as the Repub nominees in 2008, especially after this years election in which, rightly or wrongly, the religious right was belived to have been such a large factor in the Repub victory.
As mentioned in a few of the other threads on Powell, he will be in his early 70’s in 2008, a bit old to be looking at a run for president.
And even more then his 2003 UN presentation, I think the last four years have hurt Powell in that he’s been seen as impotent in effecting the policies of the Bush Admin. I don’t think that Americans will vote for a guy with a reputation of not being able to make a difference, even if, by 2008, the majority of Americans agree that he was correct in his misgivings.
Finally, if Powell wanted to be President, the time for him to make the run would have been 1996 or 2000, when he still had the halo from winning GW1. The fact that he didn’t try to run then, when his chances of winning were best, makes me think he just doesn’t want the job. Can’t say I blame him. And I doubt very much that his experiences in the last four years will have changed his mind.
Powell was always a popular choice because he is someone even most Democrats can settle with. He’s lost a lot of that shine, as well as the other issues.