Unemployment numbers are seasonally adjusted. Cite. That means that hiring by retailers for the Christmas season doesn’t result in an “artificial” decrease in the unemployment rate, and layoffs of farm workers in the winter doesn’t create an “artificial” increase in the unemployment rate.
One interesting thing I just read is that aside from the unemployment numbers that people usually gauge the economy on, the broader measure of unemployment took a sizable dip, too. As you all know, the traditional unemployment numbers exclude people who aren’t actually looking for work. The broader measure, or the U-6, includes these discouraged workers. And that stat went from 16.2% in October to 15.6% in November. Link. It would seem to me that brushing the news off as bad news (“Look how many people no longer want jobs!”) rather than a ray of hope in a still-cloudy sky is a position that’s probably heavily influenced by election-year politics, rather than hard-nosed statistical analysis.
Personally, I’m hopeful that this is the start of a sustained hiring trend in the US. But if it turns out to be just a blip, well, I wouldn’t be surprised, either.
“Assuming” a full-time job traditional came with salary and benefits, a part-time job now comes with a salary. No benefits. It’s a “win” for the company. So someone has two part-time jobs in order to get back to a salary close to what they once had. This time, no benefits. Now only do we have underemployment, those employed full-time with two part-time jobs must now also fully fund their own medical and retirement, something a traditional full-time may have had with company assistance.