never mind this
Play Ribbentrop to Putin’s Molotov? That would fry the circuits of the post-World War II international order. That would be not just game over, it would be junking the machine the game is played on.
Dump tried to bully Ukraine, because that’s what he does. That’s all he knows. Zelenskyy called his bluff, knowing it’s in America’s best economic interest to keep the international system running and to trade favorably with Ukraine. Russia has nothing comparable to offer. According to this guy Paul Warburg:
And any other president but Trump would understand that. Trashing the international system is a feature for Trump rather than a bug, and with his zero-sum “thinking” he believes all international trade is a scam unless the U.S. is unquestionably “on top”.
I get the feeling that you’re probably not aware of just how depressingly small of a figure that actually is.
France: 215 in service, 184 in storage
UK: 213 in service, none in storage, being reduced to 148 by 2027
That’s right, the world power projecting nation of Spain has the largest tank inventory of the three of them.
By way of comparison, the US has 3,700 Abrams in storage, in addition to the 2,640 in service.
This is exactly what I meant about the stock values of US versus European defense contractors, while being interesting, is pretty much meaningless when it comes to the ability to supply Ukraine in the current war, and why I seriously wish Europe could magic the enormous stockpiles of weaponry it had built for the Cold War back into existence. Unfortunately for Ukraine, it can’t.
Also, it occurred to me to add that this tidbit, which I’ve frequently seen bandied about, is quite simply nonsense. If being on a war footing is truly the only thing keeping Russia from economic collapse (it isn’t), what makes you imagine Russia is going to stop being on a war production footing once the war ends? Its consumption of war materials vastly exceeds its production of new war materials; the only thing enabling it to continue prosecuting the war at its current tempo is the depleting stockpile of Soviet era equipment. It is going to take Russia at least a decade production to begin recouping the losses it has sustained in the war.
Well I’m certainly not an economist so I’m simply parroting the opinions I’ve read. I suppose part of the stimulus propping up the Russian economy are the wages being paid to soldiers. So perhaps a post-war Russian government can try to keep the heat in the economy using peace time equivalents like state handouts. The Russian economy is primarily focused on the needs of the state rather than the prosperity of its people so it might be an interesting twist to see the Russian state having to give money out to the people in order to keep itself healthy. If recent Russian history is anything to go by this will be accompanied by fraud and embezzlement on an industrial scale and so only the wealthiest will actually see any of it.
We should not forget that Trump was all in favour of Putin invading Ukraine in the first place, saying: “a very savvy move, pure genius”.
I’m not sure where this best lives, but … anybody else catch this??
Zero punches pulled, and the NY Post is certainly nobody’s idea of a liberal rag:
Which is it- Putin has spent so many military lives that he has to resort to mercenaries from China and North Korea to wage war, or, once he conquers Ukraine it’s inevitable that he rolls over the Baltics on his way to Poland? With what army? Every place he conquers has to stay conquered. That takes a lot of manpower.
Yep; I note even that article started with the veiled criticism of Biden that this conflict would not have started under trump.
I’d love to see their working on that one…
Because trump would have…stood up to Putin? 
Yeah I see why they leave completing that thought as an exercise for the reader.
But overall, it was a good article / analysis. I think at least one of the 10 points could have been about the specific money claims: Trump lied about the money the US has spent, and the money Europe has spent, and the idea that half the money is “missing”. But at least the overall message is the article is very clear.
Exclusive: US could cut Ukraine’s access to Starlink internet services over minerals, say sources
This is horrible.
whereas I fully support your principal reasoning, imho, RU is in no condition to significantly replenish anything (except prob. purchasing drones from other countries) that is armory in a timeframe of below 15-20 years. In a way they have the same globalization problems (lack of heavy industry with ALL its ecosystems)
They are being bled dry already - but they cannot really project any significant offensive force.
Of course there are the 3 baltics, (ignoring the NATO aspect), which might be small/weak enough to just be wrestled ground down on its own, but I clearly see other countries stepping in there way more vigorously than today.
I think this is clear, also to RU.
Poland bought Starlink for Ukraine, as noted by a Polish government minister today:
“Poland acquired Starlink, which it transferred to Ukraine. We are paying and will continue to pay a subscription fee for satellite internet for Ukraine. I can’t imagine how anyone could decide to terminate a commercial agreement for a service to which Poland is a party,”
Although Ukraine does have alternatives, I’m not sure how reliable/good they are.
The point was just that this is one of Russia’s aims.
I agree that the feasibility of being ready to invade other countries is a very different story.
Though I suspect the US will be assisting with that covertly if not overtly.
Thank heavens we aren’t going further down the path towards peaceful multinationalism. Far more short term profit can be made if everyone rushes into an arms race!
For some crazy reason, even if the US reduces its commitments towards historic allies AND those countries we abandoned ramp up their arms production/purchases, I bet the US does not meaningfully reduce its own military spending.
‘In order to make up for Sleepy Joe’s invasion of Russia with Ukrainian mercenaries the beautiful United States will be paying Russia for all the damage done to their great country’’
~ DJT
Yep! Nor will the U.S. defense industry get a significant share of that arms purchasing. Nations that planned to be fighting alongside U.S. forces against a common enemy bought our weapons. Now that pretty much everyone knows we’re not coming to anyone’s aid and they’re expected to buy their own weapons, they’re going to buy them from their own arms industry or those of actual trustworthy allies.
European nations will be buying weapons from European manufacturers. U.S. companies who were funneled contracts as U.S. foreign military aid won’t get that business. (Same as U.S. farms and agricultural businesses who were funneled contracts to feed poor people here and abroad won’t be getting that business.)
Again, this is operating from the mistaken assumption that said European manufacturers actually exist and/or are capable of ramping up production to meet a vastly increased demand. They don’t. They are going to need to be vastly expanded to meet what is essentially the demand of the Cold War, which they downsized from due to the perception that there would be no meaningful threat to European security in the foreseeable future. The US on the other hand didn’t downsize its military-industrial complex. Ramping it back up from the sorry state that Europe has allowed it to decline to is going to take a significant number of years to do.
Take for example Poland, which responded to the Russian invasion of Ukraine by taking the threat very seriously, planning on doubling the size of its army and making major purchases of military hardware. You might imagine it turned to the European defense industry to meet its demands, ordering Leopard 2s and PzH2000s from Germany since they already have for example, Leopard 2s in service that they acquired from the Bundeswehr when Germany was selling off almost all of its Cold War stocks at fire sale prices. They didn’t, for the simple reason that Germany has neither the inventory in stock, nor the ability to produce more than a tiny fraction of such a demand.
Instead, they turned to South Korea and the US, both of which still have large defense industries capable of meeting the demand. They placed an order for 250 M1A2 SEPV3 Abrams tanks along with associated equipment totaling $6 billion because the US could actually provide that number of tanks:
Poland – M1A2 SEPv3 Main Battle Tank | Defense Security Cooperation Agency
They placed an order for 486 HIMARS rocket systems to augment the 20 already in its inventory, because again the US could actually fulfill such an order:
Poland placed a $10 billion dollar order for 96 AH-64 attack helicopters, because again, you guessed it, the US could actually fulfill such an order sometime this century:
They signed a $16 billion dollar order with South Korea, the largest foreign military sale in South Korea’s history for a wide range of weapons from K2 MBTs, K9 self-propelled artillery systems, Chunmoo multiple rocket launch systems, and KA-50 advanced trainer/light combat aircraft. Why? Because not only was South Korea capable of fulfilling the order, but it was also willing to allow technology transfer and the establishment of factories in Poland for indigenous production.
And how many major defense orders has Poland placed with European defense contractors in the three years the European defense industry has had to go about rebuilding itself since Ukraine was invaded? None.
Everything you say is true, but I also agree with what @John_Bredin was saying.
What I mean is: European nations will be both increasing their capacity now and looking for alternative sources than the US. Investing in European defence manufacturers looks a pretty wise bet right now.
But yes it’s also true that neither of these things will happen overnight. We’re talking decades for Europe to have comparable military strength to the US, even being able to indefinitely deter a weakened Russia is not given right now.
The trump term is going to (continue to) be very messy. Europe is quickly realising they need to go it alone, but can’t. And the US will want to cut them loose but the MIC is not going to like the crater in their profits and share price. So there will be begrudging deals for a while.
I wish I could share your optimism. Europe has had three fucking years since the Russian invasion of Ukraine happened to get its act together, revitalize and ramp up its defense industry production, increase its defense budgets and expand its military capabilities. For some nations, mostly those most threatened by proximity to Russia like Poland, the Baltic States, and the newest members Finland and Sweden, it has. But again, they have turned to US and other non-European manufacturers, not European ones because those European nations that have traditionally had the largest defense industries, namely France, Germany and the UK have largely sat on their asses in this area for the past three years. Far from ramping up its ability to fight a major conventional war, the UK for example is reducing the number of tanks it is going to be fielding from 213 today to a planned 148 in 2027.
I applaud countries like the UK and France for leading the way in providing Ukraine materials deemed ‘escalatory’ and shaming the rest of NATO and the US to follow suit. The reaction in other areas such as defense spending, expanding production capacity of defense goods and the size of their own militaries has frankly ranged from indifferent to piss poor. Much as it makes me ill to say it, TFG has been praising Poland as an example of what NATO should be doing. A stopped clock is right twice a day and all that.
Why would the US want to cut them loose? TFG, being the dangerous, narcissistic moron that he is will continue to damage US, European and Ukrainian security. Not even he is going to have any problems with the US defense industry continuing to sell all the hardware it can though, that’s money coming into the US. And the fact remains that those European nations taking rearmament seriously can’t look to the European defense industry to provide for them, they have to look abroad because NATO disposed of its Cold War stockpiles and drastically drew down its ability to produce military hardware in any substantial quantity.
It is going to take the Westernmost nations of the West the better part of a decade to ramp up their defense production, and they’ve already pissed away three years that they could and should have been doing this. And it’s not hard to imagine them cooling their heels again if the White House swings away from MAGA again in four years.
ETA: Ironically, the Polish deal with Korea could potentially make Poland the largest manufacturer of tanks in Europe in the next decade.