Ukraine’s President said today that Ukraine has intelligence indicating a planned Russian invasion of a NATO country next year.
Seems likely to me. It’s clear Trump plans to collapse NATO and quite possibly invade Canada and Greenland. Collapsing NATO will allow Russia to take Eastern Europe, so there’s probably a deal in place.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth pretty much telegraphed this:
Cite:
Here’s what I don’t understand. If Trump and Hegseth have already basically said that they’ll begin bargaining with Putin from a position that:
What could Putin possibly gain from invading another country?
/s
If Russia does attack NATO, that would be the best thing for Ukraine in multiple ways. Zelensky should be hoping hard that this happens. It would stretch Russia’s forces much thinner, divert forces away from Ukraine, and get a whole lot of nations involved, even if the US stays out.
The AP article I linked indicates that Hegseth, at least publicly, is saying that this is not the case (emphasis mine):
I think we said the same thing:
Apologies, I misread your post. Nothing to see here… 
Because he’s a megalomaniacal dictator who likes invading places?
I don’t buy the 2026 timeline personally he absolutely will invade somewhere else next if he’s allowed to keep his acquisitions in Ukraine. But he has absolutely destroyed the Russian army and it’s equipment in this war, I don’t see it being remote ready for another invasion that soon.
But that’s just a detail this is going to happen. This is what Trump wants and it’s what the US people voted for 
A prerequisite for this would be Ukraine being forced to concede everything the Russians have taken by force (at least), and finish the war. Which is exactly what Trump has said he’ll do (and is doing)
After that Putin can heavily fortify the occupied regions and withdraw the majority of troops, lead a few victory parades celebrating the troops and the brave leader who led them to victory over fascism, then start planning the next invasion (probably Baltic states)
As I said I don’t think 2026 is realistic as the Russian army f*cked beyond all recognition by this war, but absolutely before Trump leaves office
This is why 2026 is unrealistic IMO. But as soon as Trump’s Munich Agreement v2.0 is signed (sorry that’s too harsh on Chamberlain, this is more Molotov-Ribbentrop v2.0) Putin will be building back up his ruined army to the point he can invade somewhere before Trump leaves office. The Baltic states are much smaller than the Ukraine and completely isolated by Russia, so that’s where my money is.
Also Bhutan would be just about the hardest place for Putin to invade, no matter how big is army is 
I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility, but Zelenskyy has a certain Baghdad Bob element to his proclamations.
I feel like if it’s going to happen, it’s going to be some years after any sanctions are lifted and Russian industry can rebuild their forces.
I guess it comes down to how in the dark he really is about the true state of affairs in the Russian military. It’s been clear to me since the first days of this war that, were he facing a NATO power with no constraints on their military actions, he’d have lost in a very short period of time. Every column he sends into a NATO country will get the Highway of Death treatment. He only got away with as much of Ukraine as he did because no one in NATO wanted to be the first to pull the trigger directly against Russian forces, but if he’s invading them directly, that decision will be made.
Given what he’s facing I’m not judging him for being a little bit pessimistic in his predictions. It’s going to happen, just probably a bit later than he says. And saying that is probably more productive than just screaming “what the fuck are you doing, you fucking idiots” over and over which is where I’d be at right now
Without the US? In a tiny Baltic state a completely surrounded by Russian forces. I’m not so sure. With the US the Russian Air Force is smoldering rubble the first day. Without it, it’s not a walkover but it’s not a for-gone conclusion either. The Air Force of the other NATO members (particularly the part able to be deployed overseas) is far far smaller than the US’s. And Russian Air defense is not completely useless even if they have not lived up to their vaunted reputation.
The oft repeated factoid is the largest air force in the world is the USAF, the next is the US Navy, and the third is the US marine air corp.
Putin and Musk have clearly divided up the world. Russia’s attack on the Balkan states will coincide with America’s attack on Canada and Greenland. Nato will be faced with invasions by two nuclear powers and will have to decide whether to fight or concede.
Russia is in demographic and economic collapse, and has essentially no sustainable industries; even their military and petroleum extraction industries which were once the mainstay of Soviet Union are so heavily dependent upon external equipment and expertise that they are revenue negative propositions. While it seems highly unlikely that Russia could effect an actual invasion of any NATO member nation based upon the logistical constraints alone, even Romania, Finland, or Sweden (much less one with a large and robust military such as Poland), Putin might see it as necessary to put up a show of Russian ‘strength’ for his domestic audience, and then back it up with nuclear saber-rattling in an attempt to gain some concessions and declare a moral victory. It isn’t rational for the long term viability of Russia, but then Putin gives fuck all about a Russia after his demise, and regardless of what he does Russia will not exist in the nation as currently constituted in the next two or three decades.
Well, that is the optimistic view. I think the realist view is more along the lines of escalation to nuclear posturing and potentially even using a non-NATO Ukraine for target practice pour encourager les autres, especially if he can obtain assurances from Hegseth and Trump that there will be no American retaliation (and confidence that Europe’s two nuclear powers, France and Great Britain, will not respond as long as they are not directly threatened). That this would be insanely destabilizing and unthinkable in prior eras is no longer a constraint where Russia is facing collapse and deconsolidation, and Putin’s media mouthpiece Dmitry Kiselyov has literally said, “Why do we need a world if Russia is not in it?” in a context widely interpreted as a thinly veiled threat of unilateral nuclear escalation.
Stranger
Sad to say, I wouldn’t be shocked to hear that Trump’s strategy is “we take the Western Hemisphere*, Russia and China wrestle over the Eastern Hemisphere.”
*This already stated doctrine in this administration.
It seems clear that a Russian/American axis has been formed. How the democracies respond to the threat will be the challenge of the 21st century.
Huh? No he doesn’t. At all. Baghdad Bob was just flat out lying in the most absurd way, anmd in the direction of optimism. Zelenskyy is say8ng absolutely plausible things that people should be worried aboout.
Ah yes, the Peter Zeihan prediction that Russians couldn’t possibly figure out how to get oil out of the ground. Zeihan has been so wrong about so many things now that it’s almost funny.