I couldn’t figure out how to find a definitive stat on this, but I’m sure someone has figured it out at some point. I’m particularly thinking of Baseball, but the question can apply to other sports as well.
Anecdotally, it seems to me that when the team facing elimination wins Game 6, they tend to go on to win Game 7 as well. Two famous examples are the 1986 World Series and the 2003 NLCS. Both the “Buckner Game” and the “Bartman Game” were game 6. In both cases, game 7 was anti-climactic. The Red Sox and Cubs seemed to have been spent, while the Mets and Marlins completed the “Team of Destiny” scenario. Everybody remembers these Game 6’s but nobody ever seems to mention that they still had to play another game. I fully expect the same thing to happen in St. Louis tonight.
But, of course, I could very easily be suffering from confirmation bias, and I’d like to know if my perception is on target. Is “Game 6 Momentum” a real thing?
World Series game 7 result for game 6 winner
2002: W
2001: W
1997: L
1991: W
1987: W
1986: W
1985: W
1982: W
1979: W
1975: L (Carlton Fisk to no avail)
1973: W
1972: L
1971: L
1968: W
1967: L
1965: L
1964: L
1962: L
1960: L
Interesting. 10-9 since 1960, but that combines an 8-1 since 1979 with a 2-8 from '60 to '75. I’m thinking random chance here, since I see no reason why the psychology of Game 7 would be different after 1975 than before.
An interesting correlation. The shift seen in the late 1970s was also seen in home field advantage. The home team was 3-8 in seven game series from 1960-1979, but 8-0 since. This means that when the home team is down 3-2 going into game six and win game 6, if I counted correctly, they were 1-6 from 1960-1979, but 7-0 since. I know there was a recent thread on home field advantage in baseball. Has it changed significantly over the last 30 years?
Adjusting to use the same breakdown (1960-1975/1979-2002) as Tom Scud, we see 3-7/8-1 and 1-6/7-0, since Pittsburgh didn’t have HFA in 1979.
Another interesting factor from this is that the home team is 14-5 in non-clinching Game 6’s since 1960.
Regarding home-field advantage in the World Series, the DH was adopted in 1973; I wonder if this might be a factor. Ron Washington definitely seemed out of his element trying to manage the pitcher’s spot in the late innings last night. Conversely, NL teams may be less likely to have a big bat on the bench for DH use in the AL park.
How many of those W’s on Tom Scud’s list from 1973 on were by the home team? (I’d look myself but no time right now, sorry…)
Home team won Game 7 in 1960, 1964, 1973, and every one since 1982. This was the AL team in 1973, 1985, 1987, 1991, 2002. The NL team hosted Game 7 and won in 1982, 1986, 1997, 2001. 1975 and 1979 were Game 7 victories for the visitors, both these games were in AL parks.
2002: W
2001: W
1997: W
1991: W
1987: W
1986: W
1985: W
1982: W
1979: L
1975: L
1973: W
1972: L
1971: L
1968: L
1967: L
1965: L
1964: W
1962: L
1960: W
That’s so weird. 11-8. Kinda sorta a toss up, but if you look at them you’ll see that, like the statistic above, the shift is radical around 1979 to the point that in the last 30 years homefield advantage has been 100% for game 7 winners.
FTR, here’s some more:
1958: L
1957: L
1956: L
1955: L
1952: L
1947: W
1946: W
1945: L
1940: W
1934: L
1931: W
1926: L
1925: W
1924: W
1921: L (Game 8)
The MLB’s been 2-3-2 since 1924. You might be remembering that the NBA switched in the 80s.
Regarding Wheelz’ point, it’s worth pointing out that the World Series didn’t use the DH until, you guessed it, 1976, even though it existed in the regular season before that. First it was used in the Series every other year until '86, when it went to the home-field rule. So 1982 would’ve been the only DH-on year with a game seven until 1986.
