It’s more a matter of who is going to make them?
There is a mass of 25,000 armed men with significant military capacity. There is no useful Russian military force in reach, and one suspects no real interest from the conventional military in getting involved. Avoiding conflict on Russian soil was a large part of the compromise.
If the Wager forces can make it into Belarus, or have by now, nobody is going to be wading in and sending them back.
Prior to the mutiny, Wagner forces were in camps in the rear in Donetsk after having been pulled off the front lines at Bahkmut, and there have been various videos showing their columns headed back in that direction. Belarus is 1000km the opposite way.
Wagner is 100% dependent on the Army for logistics. While they were in control of various facilities in Rostov-on-Don they could have re-supplied from there, but since they’ve left Rostov they have whatever supplies they have, and if they don’t toe the line they won’t be getting any more. While they were mutinying they could also just steal fuel from gas stations along the way. But that option isn’t there any more, at least not without re-mutinying. Which they could still do, but barring that, if they want supplies, they have to mostly follow orders, including the orders to subordinate themselves to the Army chain of command.
That will make the choices a bit grim.
Hard to know what any individual may think of his options. I’m going to bet a lot will be thinking hard about ways to vanish in the night.
And they have any objection to breaking the law?
Not really. But the point was that the Wagner organization was in effect made illegal and was going to be dismantled. Leaving 25,000 unhappy individuals with no job. At least assuming anyone in the Russian government / security / legal hierarchy actually follows the Duma’s laws.
Some may choose to resort to warlordism and banditry on either side of the UKR / RUS border. Some may try to sign up with other Russian PMCs, of which there are several.
But it appears Putin has decapitated Wagner, and the upper echelons of what was Wagner are next. What those folks do, and how much control they actually have over their equipment and their fate will be very interesting to watch.
You mean made double illegal, kind of like double secret probation. Wagner was already illegal per Article 359 of the Russian Criminal Code:
PMCs are technically illegal under Article 359 of the 1996 Russian Criminal Code, which states: “Recruitment, training, financing, or any other material provision of a mercenary, and also the use of him in an armed conflict or hostilities, shall be punishable by deprivation of liberty for a term of four to eight years.”
The next sentence from that cite is semi-out of date as it was written in September of 2022:
Because of this, Russian PMCs are not legally registered organizations and do not pay taxes to the state—meaning that they are not recognized as a Russian entity and do not officially exist.
That changed in January this year when Wagner officially came into legal existence with a rather odd description of its activities, and of course no explanation of what role tanks, artillery, etc. fulfill in carrying out said activities:
In its registration documents, PMC Wagner Center described its activities as including business and management consulting, publishing, media, scientific development, and the leasing of ships and airplanes.
Yeah. There’s not much point in discussing the written legal niceties as if Russia was a country with laws, courts, prosecutors, defenders, etc., that work anything like we tend to assume US or other civilized countries’ legal systems do.
But within the lawless parameters of whatever the hell is going on in Russia, your average Wagner goon is suddenly facing a very uncertain future with little in the way of landmarks to navigate by. Decisions will be made, and lots of separate ones. By rather ruthless dudes used to getting their way and skirting the edges of officialdom doing it.
Consider also the most senior Wagner leaders, Prigo’s immediate deputies and their deputies, plus whatever passes for management back at HQ distinct from the fighting forces in the field. Those folks have a very different set of decisions than does Ordinary Rifleman #23,432.
Gonna be verrrry interrrrresting as Arte Johnson’s silly pretend Wehrmacht soldier used to say on Laugh-In. But this time it won’t be funny; that’s pretty well guaranteed
Not to worry. They can get out anytime they want. Just gotta sign up to dance with Ukrainian lead for 6 months.
The BBC is reporting that Putin has announced that the Wagner troops “could choose to join the regular military, return to their families, or go to Belarus.”
Just what the logistics of this is not clear. And just how enthusiastic the Belarusian populace might be isn’t clear either.
Or be assigned to find land mines with a stick. I think many of them will take a pass on this opportunity.
Nobody’s mentioned the logistics of moving 25,000 men (and equipment) to a “safe” third country, even if Belarus wants a competing military force on its soil. The Russian military arn’t going to provide the aircraft. That’s dozens of packed flights at least. Or a dozen special trains. I suspect the Russians have no intention of releasing anyone other than a small bodyguard and some top staff to go with Prigozhin. The rest, as already decided, will join the Russian military and have no choice but to like it - especially if mercenary pay is replaced with standard Russian recruit wages, that should motivate them in some way.
Less obvious is what happens to the command structure. Do lieutentants or colonels suddenly become Russian officers, or get dropped down to NCO’s? They will be motivated too.
The other point was how badly disrupted supplies were by all this since Rostov was the main supply base. How Just-In-Time is material supply in the Russian military front lines? What sort of reprisals await the Rostov contingent who did little to stop Wagner? (Or even cheered him?) Will supply lines be severely disrupted as those people are interrogated, and the ones who know where all the supplies are and how to send supplies A to point B get rotated out to the front lines and replaced?
It wouldn’t be that much of a task to overcome if Wagner were allowed to conduct its own logistics for the move. Prigozhin has said that one of his goals in his ‘march for justice’ was to show the Russian military how it’s done and should have been done in the war special military operation. It was a rather impressive feat of logistics that they were able to walk across the border from Donbas into the Rostov oblast, take control of the city of Rostov and then road march to Voronezh in a day. Of course, they were able to freely move military equipment on the Russian roadway without regard for any damage it caused, loot fuel along the way, and actually encountered no resistance from the Russian military, unlike the situation in Ukraine February of last year.
One speculation I heard earlier today was that Wagner could do operations attacking from the north from Belarus. Advantage is that it still isn’t Belarus soldiers so no public outcry there, and it forces Ukraine to devote some troops and material to that front …
The last I knew, Ukraine had already been devoting a significant number of troops to the defense of their northern border. Even if Wagner attacks, Ukraine will be far better prepared than they were 18 months ago.
Devoting a significant portion of resources to where there is no active front line and no significant build up of opposition forces would be surprising to me. Happy to learn otherwise if you have a source. Left completely unprotected of course not, but defense against a Wagner brigade would more than that.
Perun touched on this issue in one of his early videos when the Russian excuse for the disaster as Kiev was that the whole thing was a diversion to draw Ukrainian forces away from the Donbas. One of the (many) reasons this was clearly bullshit is that a significant part of the Ukrainian forces they faced in their failed drive at Kiev were territorial defense forces that couldn’t be moved from the Kiev area regardless. Also, the regular Ukrainian forces that defeated the Russians at Kiev could be redeployed to Donbas just as fast if not faster than the Russian forces could be moved from the retreat goodwill gesture of abandoning their gains near Kiev and moved to Donbas, as the Ukrainians had the advantage of interior lines.
An attack from Belarus is an attack from Belarus. Letting someone else use your territory to mount an attack is just as much an act of war as mounting it yourself.
The issue per that commenter (The Intelligence, an Economist podcast) is not how Ukraine or the world interprets it, but how the citizens of Belarus do. Neither Belarus or Ukraine want the Belarus military getting in the action. Russia wants that but so far agreeing to host tactical nukes is the biggest deal.
Doesn’t matter. If the Ukrainians have to pursue Wagner into Belarus, including remote bombarment - missiles, air attacks (as they did earlier against Russian air force) I don’t think the citizenry or the Blearus military will be happy about being dragged in Notce for all of Lukashenko being a Russian toady, he carefully stayed out of Putin’s war. AFAIK there is no shelling or other activity from Belarus itself now.
Then there’s thw whole issue of ammunition and supplies - even in the main war, Wagner seems to have disliked the amount they were getting.
I suppose that’s the question. How many big aircraft do they have? How happy are the Russian military to give/lend them any, when each man moved is one less gratis trained recruit already in the field? Same for things like artillery and tanks… should the army keep those or let Wagner take them? How likely they want another force with another own front which may show unfortunate comparisons of results?
BTW - did all 25,000 head to Moscow, or was the whole thing including Rostov a token force of a few thousand?
let alone to permanently feed (and upkeep) them 25.000 beds, etc… that is basically a mid-sized town being established overnight … in a country that seems to be very 3rd worldish …
I assume they also want to get paid month after month and need transport… so I cannot fathom an auspicious scenario for significant numbers of wagernerttes in Belarus …
IOW 25.000 rude men without a clear objective/game plan are a huge LIABILITY and not a WAR ASSET … and if in a 3rd country, even moreso