What share of the white vote will the Democratic Party receive in 2016?

Politics & Elections
61

I think there are a lot of people like that cabbie. Hillary did much better among the white working class in the 2008 primaries than Obama, I think it’s reasonable to assume she will do so in the 2016 general election than Obama did in either general election. A lot of folks have Democratic leanings but just couldn’t pull the lever for the black guy.

62

Ya think?

63

…which sickens me, but yeah, it is true, even in 2015.

64

But will they find it any easier to pull the lever for a white woman?

65

I’m guessing yes. Judging by Hillary’s dominance over Obama in the 2008 primaries in some of the larger states I think she’s more than capable of picking up some voters that Obama could not.

66

Sexism is not smaller problem than racism, not least because more people are willing to admit that racism still exists.

That said, I dont’ think it’s a bigger problem. I expect the number of racists who won’t vote for a black man are about equal to the number of sexists who won’t vote for a woman (and some of them, at least, will be the same person), so it will all work out about the same.

67

They have a counterpart in the sort of awful upper-middle class/professional whites (NOT blacks mind you who love the Clintons even if they might prefer Obama) who won’t vote for Hillary even as they enthused over the “post-partisan” Obama because she was “corrupt” or “ruthless” or whatever (as if there was any noticeable ideological distinction between the two candidates). For example, the father of the President of the Brandeis Democrats (nice enough person but she says silly stuff like thinking Jim Webb is some sort of a white supremacist roflmao) from the Bay Area apparently would have voted for McCain over Clinton as long as Palin wasn’t his running-mate. Just goes to show you that there are lots of voters who care about “image” more then TRUMP supporters.

68

And the degree of less repulsive is probably important as well. I mean, there are probably lots of folks out there who probably would vote for Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio or even Lindsey Graham, but who would literally vote for anyone other than Donald Trump or Ted Cruz.

69

I think they’ll get what they need. If the polls read tight, more whites will come out.

There’s enough sane people left to maintain a margin.