What do you think the US should do about Venezuela?
In its current state, I think we should do nothing beyond recognize Guaidó. I don’t think it is our job to be the world’s policeman. There is suffering in other countries because their leaders are dickheads. It has always been and will forever be. We can’t fix it.
The rest of the world will say we are just after their enormous oil reserves and it will do nothing but increase anti-US sentiment and radicalize violent actors.
Agree? Disagree? Does the above finally prove what you have always suspected (that I am a complete idiot)?
I think that military action by the US is the quickest surest way to rally the people in Venezuela against Guaidó.
We do not have a particularly good reputation as a bringer of peace, democracy and stability in South and central America. The best we can do is offer aid to refugees and, if allowed, to the residents of Venezuela, but leve the rest up to the Venezuelans and neighboring countries.
Right. We are coming up on the 30th anniversary of the US invasion of Panama in December 1989. Even though Panama was a total mess at the time and most people hated Noriega, I’m sure there will still be anti-US protests by some on the anniversary.
The Chavez-Maduro regimes have been absolutely devastating to the country, and have systematically destroyed its democratic institutions. But the US can’t possibly rectify the situation from outside or by invasion. It has to come from inside the country. If things got so bad that there had to be an intervention, it would have to be by a coalition of other Latin Americans - although they wouldn’t, because of their own bad experiences with US intervention. The US is like an abusive ex-husband - no matter how desperate things are, no one is going to ask for our help.
Yeah, I think at this stage there really isn’t anything that the US could do that we should do. Any US action at this stage would be a bad idea. Hell, even recognizing Guaido has had a lot of downsides.
Sadly, China and Russia don’t feel as constrained, and Maduro is basically giving away Venezuela’s future and their oil for a pittance. The Chinese are going to be there to exact the payment, and the Venezuelan people are going to pay the price in the long run…and keep paying it. It’s a pretty steep price for stupidity, but sadly there is zero chance of a happy ending for anyone in this mess. The US getting more involved would just make it worse, unfortunately.
China has dibs. They are going to pick up the entire (state owned) Venezuelan oil system for something like $1.5 billion. That SOUNDS like a lot, but it’s a ludicrous sum for that. But they are going to get it, anyway. Hell, they already have their hooks in. And Maduro is begging for more, which they will be happy to give him.
Um…well, we DO buy oil from Venezuela. They are a major exporter to us, and in fact if their oil infrastructure wasn’t collapsing under it’s own weight we’d probably be buying more. And we almost certainly will buy oil from them when China takes over their oil industry sometime in the next few years. In fact, we’ll almost certainly buy more oil from them, since presumably once they have it they will invest heavily (using Chinese labor of course) in it. It will be a crown jewel in their over seas expansion plans in fact. Won’t help the Venezuelan people much, of course, as the profits will go the China, as will most of the jobs, but we will still get our oil and folks will be happy that it isn’t the US putting it’s nose in. China is so much better, after all…
*Go on and cry Venezuela,
Hugo fucked up beyond endurance
Go eat some rat meat
And drink your oil
If we showed up now
You’d only hate us
More than you do nooowww…/I]
Who is going to sell it to us? Maduro is, basically, in charge as long as the military, especially the army supports him. HE is the one selling off pieces…and he’s not asking the US for bids. He’s asking Russia, China and, to a lesser extent, Cuba, though they are a bit player these days. Mostly, Russia and China. There are a few others (Turkey, interestingly enough), but those two are going to get the lions share.
I know you are mostly tongue in cheek with this…so am I to an extent, though I did have to roll my eyes but also smile at Der’s comment…but the reality is that this isn’t a thing. The US can’t even do more on the humanitarian aide front at this point wrt Venezuela…this, despite the fact that a lot of our more recent immigration issues are directly because of a destabilizing Venezuela. It actually is, for once, something that is affecting us in a noticeable way. But there is nothing we can do to help. Oh, there is tons we COULD do. We could use our military forces, or our covert forces or we could leverage a ton of other things (economics or political force in the region or world wide), but none of them would help.
As for space, well…that seems so far down the road wrt the actual issue that it’s not something I think we need to actually fret about at this point. Bigger things are afoot, and the US has stomped on our dick with our big golf shoes wrt the region, so we have opted our selves right out of options to do anything without a huge blowback.