I rarely agree with our eight legged colleague, but he was responding to a post that spoke of certainty, not possibility. Yes, an attack is possible. No, it’s not certain. “War” is far from certain.
The balance of peace in the nuclear age is a lot more fragile than people realize. You oughtta watch Fog of War, the Erroll Morris documentary with Bob McNamara. I’m sure there’s a lot more to some of the events discussed in the film than just McNamara’s version of events, and I’m also pretty sure that some people who lived during the LBJ years would probably just as soon pull down their pants and urinate on their TV screens at the sight of him, but I thought it was pretty informative, reflective, sobering.
It wouldn’t take that much to go from trash talk to the brink of a massive hot war, and the bad news is, in terms of personalities, we’ve got exactly the wrong kinds of people at the helm of their respective countries. Both Kim Jung Un and the Donald are very proud of their status, their power, and their military’s perceived capabilities to deliver massive pain through a range of ordnance. The rhetoric is already going well beyond where it should. It’s getting closer to building a dangerous pretext and a moment in which a false move, something that could be interpreted the wrong way, could set off a massive chain of events.
This is very, very serious.
I think that is the danger - that NK does take Donald Trump seriously and begins the escalation and activity the likes of which we haven’t seen, possibly causing an overreaction. Or maybe NK overreacts first. Or maybe there’s a breakdown the chain of command and some idiot sails a vessel where they shouldn’t, initiates a procedure when they shouldn’t. We’re getting closer to the point where mistakes can lead to a massive chain reaction.
This is not entirely without precedent, as Bill Clinton and then Sec of Def William Perry dealt with an increasingly bellicose Kim Jong Il. But they were careful not to overreact and they actually were moderately successful in reaching out diplomatically.
What is without precedent is the colossal incompetence of this administration. The thing that is so fucking horrifying right now is knowing that there is absolutely no apparatus like that in Donny Dumbass’ White House. He’s already a significant number of WH staffers who were with him on January 20, has extremely tense relations with many more, and doesn’t seem to trust anyone other than his family and Wall St. billionaires. This is a nightmare waiting to happen.
I will give credit where credit is due and tip my hat to Nikki Haley and Rex Tillerson for succeeding in getting a coalition together to get tough on NK. But they seriously need to put a muzzle on Trump or he’s going to undo it all.
Well, now he has to do something or look like his threat was empty - since NK just threatened Guam.
THis is the problem - NK is unlikely to throw the first rock, but this will not end well since Trump now has to appear to do ‘something’ since he told them to stop and they didn’t.
Regaurdless of what he orders or what happens next - none of this is a good sign.
[quote=“asahi, post:22, topic:793136”]
The balance of peace in the nuclear age is a lot more fragile than people realize. You oughtta watch Fog of War, the Erroll Morris documentary with Bob McNamara. I’m sure there’s a lot more to some of the events discussed in the film than just McNamara’s version of events, and I’m also pretty sure that some people who lived during the LBJ years would probably just as soon pull down their pants and urinate on their TV screens at the sight of him, but I thought it was pretty informative, reflective, sobering.
It wouldn’t take that much to go from trash talk to the brink of a massive hot war, and the bad news is, in terms of personalities, we’ve got exactly the wrong kinds of people at the helm of their respective countries. Both Kim Jung Un and the Donald are very proud of their status, their power, and their military’s perceived capabilities to deliver massive pain through a range of ordnance. The rhetoric is already going well beyond where it should. It’s getting closer to building a dangerous pretext and a moment in which a false move, something that could be interpreted the wrong way, could set off a massive chain of events.
**This is very, very serious.[/**QUOTE]Well said. And Trump would love an ego boost and distraction right now. Interestingly, he has no concept of numbers or consequences.
Maybe I’m misremembering, but I could have sworn there was considerable jeering from the right side of the aisle when Obama didn’t follow through on a “red line” statement concerning Syria. So, to avoid getting the same treatment, Trump is now obligated to carry out his threat, eh?
IOKWARDIa
I’m singing the thread title to the tune of Teen Angst by Cracker. Am I the only one?
I really, really hope some more rational minds get to work on both the demented leaders. I can see this easily turning into everyone’s worst nightmare, and I’m scared.
The problem is Kim Jong-un is likely to interpret any kind of military attack on North Korea as a sign the end is nigh and launch everything he has at once. Even if he can’t get a single nuke in the air that’s still going devastate South Korea. Even if Trump resists the urge to turn Pyongyang into glass afterward the former North Korea is going to collapse into anarchy, and we’re going to end up sharing occupation duties with the Chinese for a generation.
Is the ability to say “Fuck you, Democrats!” so ghod damn precious to you that you would risk even this much chance of nuclear war? What the holy hell does this orange monkey have to say and/or do to get you to say “Nope-that’s it. Take the fucking button away from him now!”?
Now hold up. They didn’t really give Trump the real button did they?
As much as Kim needs pushback, it’s still a Very Bad Thing™ that the US is now “led” by someone even more narcissistic, impulsive and childish than he.
Do you know when this shit became “notfunny”?
When this dangerous hothead took the oath of office.
Now that Trump has decided that the best way to take care of a rat is to corner it, threaten it publicly and otherwise antagonize it, why don’t you give us another “humorous” quip instead of looking directly at a very real problem that is just as likely to effect you and yours as it will anyone/everyone else.
Why? Because our comments on an internet message board aren’t going to influence events one way or another. I am just not 100% certain that Trump is going to nuke North Korean unlike some paranoid people in this thread.
Do you think the chance is 100%? If you don’t I don’t see what your issue is with me saying I don’t think the chance is 100%. Sorry, I’m not part of the hive mind.
I think if Kim nukes Guam there is a very high probability the US will nuke North Korea in return. So the question then becomes one of whether or not North Korea will actually nuke the island. Or some other US territory.
What Trump did, though, was threaten to retaliate if they “make any more threats”. That’s just stupid. Obviously, they weren’t going to stop making threats, and now whatever speck of credibility this administration had left is flushed down the drain.
I suppose in the future he can always go with “Don’t launch a missile, or we’ll unleash the fire and fury, and I really, really mean it this time.”
So you aren’t going to give a shit until the chance of atomic disaster reaches 100%?
That is exactly the point where what you do or say won’t mean jack shit…because the disaster will already have happened.
And you are accomplishing what, exactly? Aside from appearing a bit hysterical and overly nit-picky.
And why are you going off on random tangents?
I’m not really sure what Czarcasm is establishing but you, OTOH, are clearly establishing that you are nothing more than a partisan dumbass.
Clearly you don’t care about anything other than being able to proclaim that your “side” is wiiiiinnning!!!1!
Dipshit.