there is no doubt to me that the terrorist attacks were done to purposely alter the elections of an american ally.
there is also no doubt to me that they will try to do the same to us.
i’m thinking july 8th, 119 days from march 11, would do the trick to get bush out of office. but it might be a little early. 119 days before the elction is july 6th which a couple days earlier.
i’m not sure when they will do it, but these fuckers like numbers and will try something before our election.
What makes you think AQ want to get rid of Bush?
He’s doing such a grand job recruiting for them, constantly publicising their cause.
And, of course, he’s a proven appeaser, pulling troops from Saudi Arabia in response to their demands.
Remember kids, a vote for Bush is a vote for Osama…
Whee, second post and already a Bush-bash.
I think the best time is during or right before the Republican National Convention, using a method that has been used elsewhere in the world (thereby opening up the Administration to charges that they should have foreseen that pigeons could be used as missiles or something). The Convention will turn into a requiem and be under even more attack by protestors. The Repubs will either have to go along with the mourning and miss putting out their message or try to continue with business and look like insensitive creeps.
But I can say one thing for sure–within months, President Kerry will be being blamed by Al Qaeda for everything that they do too.
i agree 100%
don’t you remember those al queda videos of those morons shooting at pictures of Clinton?!
I would imagine a terrorist attack would actually strengthen Bush’s standing with the American public.
Polls show that Kerry is favored over Bush on the economy, protecting social security and such. However, Bush is favored on national defense and fighting terrorism.
Another attack would bring terrorism back to the main stage, and that would be a good thing for Bush.
Avenger’s post raises a valid point. Why would AQ want to affect the American vote?
The Spanish election seemed to offered two clearly different outcomes, the American one does not. Besides bombs generally drive everyone to vote for the Leader, who happens to be Bush.
The only way a terrorist attack would hurt Bush’s election imho, is if it was a reverse of the Spanish situation. ie that it was actually done by domestic terrorists and especially if Bush gets caught trying to shift the blame to AQ.
I don’t think domestic terrorism is going to do it. I can see the reverse happening. I also do believe AQ would not want Bush out of office. His anti-arab (I’m sure that’s how it’s viewed) stance is exactly what terrorism needs. The US is a great scape goat to rally these other smaller nations (or just the population) to do whatever it takes to get rid of US troops.
What I can see working (if they really wanted Bush out) is to continue hitting the troops in Iraq. I don’t know why it’s not normally reported on CNN but Canadian news sources keep reporting trickle fatalities of US troopers due to bombs. If AQ can hit more military targets (including maybe killing someone “higher up” like a General or something) it might be enough to make Americans back out of Iraq (and thus hurt Bush’s little war).
I can see that happening for Japanese troops. If AQ wanted to hurt the political party sending Japanese troops to Iraq (something I personally don’t support, I’m Japanese) all they would have to do is kill a few dozen Japanese troopers to destroy support in Japan (IMO).
Well, if you really want to go there, Bush is still living under “Tecumseh’s Curse”, which has been followed and charted by astrologers, among others. Here are some “predictions” from various sources:
Bush/Tecumseh’s Curse “Critical Day” (Saturn Conjunct USA Sun):
June 11, 2004
Other proposed “Critical Days” for Bush in 2004:
March 19-21
April 3-4
April 13
May 19-20
May 28-31
June 14
July 5-6
July 16
August 8-10
August 21-25
September 1
October 6-8
October 17-20
November 2-3
November 20-22
December 1
December 23-26
Would any of these numbers work out as per your theory? I’d attempt it myself, but my dog ate my tin foil hat… 
Well badmana I still think a big domestic terror act could be damaging to Bush. It would indicate his failure on the home front with a pet project(ie War on Terror).
I’ll agree with your point about military casualties in Iraq. A big showy increase in attacks in October could give the admin trouble.
I’m still unconvinced that getting rid of Bush would be a useful goal for AQ. Is it the accepted wisdom that ObL voted Gore?
It occurs to me that if I knew the answer to the OP’s question, I’m not sure I’d wanna put it on the World Wide Web.
I really don’t think an attack would alter the election.
IMHO, Bush is gonna win. If we are attacked, it’s just gonna piss people off and cement those who are going to vote for Bush, and make those who are considering voting for Kerry think twice because he’s a wimp when it comes to defense.
An attack would help Bush, not hurt, but it wouldn’t “win” him the election because he will probably win anyway, attack or no. If we’re attacked and Bush ends up winning, though, I’m sure the democrats will be there claiming that Bush planned it or somehow knew about it.
“Waaah we had the election in the bag before we were attacked and it turned things around for Bush!”
America may be a split country these days politically but it’s possible to piss us off enough to band together in an effort to piss off the terrorists. That’s all an attack would do, give us enough fury to make sure that we do what is necessary to see to it that they don’t get what they want: Kerry for President.
Just MHO.
I agree that a terrorist attack would help, not hurt Bush’s re-election chances. Indeed, a sufficiently serious one close enough to the election might force Kerry to effectively throw in the towel. Kerry would not be able to actively campaign in the wake of a 9/11 scale tragedy.
But these guys aren’t terrorists because they’re smart. They’ve consistently demonstrated that they have a political tin ear. They have certainly been given the impression that their “intervention” in the Spanish election was successful. I very much expect them to try something similar in the U.S.
So since a number of people here feel that a terrorist attack on USA soil would be helpful to Bush AND, if Bush is doing badly in the polls say, around October, would Bush operatives try to create a terrorist incident themselves to turn the tide in their direction?
I think that
A) An Al-Qaeda terrorist attack would help Bush in the election
B) Al-Qaeda favors Bush as he has done everything they could have asked of him.
Therefore, I think an Al-Qaeda attack timed to affect the election is likely, especially if as also seems likely, the numbers are close after the conventions.
iamme99, come on, I am a big time Bush hater, but even I don’t even consider the possibility he would stage something. He would definitely play up a small event into a larger one if it were to occur though. I was going to say that no one believes he would do this, but then there are those who think he staged 9/11.
annaplurabelle, really hedging your bets aren’t you?
No doubt most people would use the hypothetical attack to cement their pre-existing views.
“Bush let another one happen on his watch! Vote the bastard out!”
“This shows how dangerous these times are; we need a war-hawk like Bush more than ever!”
Yep, you nailed it! The consortium of Cuban, CIA and Mafia operatives that knocked off JFK is still intact. They’d do this simple little trick for Bush just for the fun of it. :rolleyes:
Don’t be surprised if they are also trying to bury some WMD’s they got from Pakistan or Libya in Iraq so they can be found in the next few months.
The thing more like to surprise me is…what will iamme99 say next. 
To the OP: Well, there are several threads on this that I’ve put in my 2 cents, but here goes again:
I don’t think we can gage whether or not a terrorist attack on US soil will help or hurt Bush’s chances…it all depends on whether exactly what form the attack takes, how sever it is, and the perception of the people as to whether or not its Bush’s fault…i.e. could it have been prevented. If Bush et al come out with one of their patiented Terror Alerts and an attack happens, you can bet Bush will get another 4 years.
I have serious doubts that AQ is capable of launching another such attack in the time frame we are talking about. Such attacks take time and money to bring off successfully, and its a bit hard to plan such things when you are being actively hunted. Its also a bit harder to bring off when the nation you are trying to strike is awake and alert, than when they are inner focused and pretty much asleep (as we were prior to 9/11). Kick a sleeping lion in the balls is fairly easy (but watch out when it lashes out). Kicking a hunting lion in the balls is a bit more tricky though.
I have my doubts as to just how much understanding of the US political (or hell, anything else really about the US) system AQ has over all. I doubt they make much distinction between Bush or Kerry (if they even know or care who Kerry is)…they both represent the US, so whoever is in office thats who they will focus on. So, I doubt whether Bin Laden gives two camel shits if its Bush or Kerry in the end. Remember, I’m talking from a strategic/leadership level here…I’m sure there are AQ members or operatives that know quite a bit about the US. However, I’ve seen no real indication that ObL has a real clue as to how the US really operates, and I doubt many of the other top guys do either.
-XT
This news is so passe! They finished burying the WMD’s weeks ago. OBL has been captured, and he’s being hidden in a cave under Area 51. Two weeks before the election, he’ll be flown back to Afghanistan. Then we’ll see a photo-op of GWB, with his trusty Colt .45 in hand, pushing a chained OBL down some dusty mountain trail.
It all makes sense when you have (whisper) [sub]inside information.[/sub]