What was the last word on the possibility of a stolen 2004 election?

[adaher]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a close election that required recounts adjudicated well. That’s just the nature of close elections.

[Frylock]

@Left_Hand_of_Dorkness

It seems pretty clear to me that the 2000 elections were an absolute travesty of democracy and will be remembered in the history books as a completely embarrassing failure of our system.

The 2004 elections, not so much. I mean, sure, we elected the wrong guy, but the evidence of shenanigans is pretty close to nonexistent.

What do you think of the kind of arguments offered in Kennedy’s Rolling Stone article?

[Ibn_Warraq]

So basically we have an article from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.(a true non-partisan) an anti-vaccination whacko and a link to a truther website and some people insisting that exit polls are never inaccurate.

Sounds like an open and shut case to me.

[Shodan]

Not so loud - foolsguinea is afraid someone might kill your children.

Regards,
Shodan

[BigAppleBucky]

One of my daughter’s friends waited 8 hours in the rain to vote in 2004. Her voting district was mainly Oberlin students. Were they purposely given too few machines in order to reduce Kerry votes?

Who knows?

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

@Frylock

What do you think of the kind of arguments offered in Kennedy’s Rolling Stone article?

I read some of them after the election, and I found them unpersuasive then. They struck me as the sort of conglomeration of coincidence, innuendo, and faulty reasoning that exemplifies conspiracy theory.

The arguments against a Bush victory in 2000 were much clearer and more straightforward. These? A bunch of lack of proof.

[foolsguinea]

I have never had to wait over two hours to vote. Ever. But there have been elections in my state (2006?) where people in other precincts were sent home without getting to vote. And they were in urban black districts.

This sort of thing shows a flaw in the system that people don’t care to fix. So if it’s not deliberate disenfranchisement, what is it?

Oh, I forgot, Democrats are just liars, and those negroes were bussed in to stuff ballot boxes. We can just use that explanation every time, right? Every time.

[adaher]

Usually I get in quick, but in 1992 I had a three hour wait. It doesn’t really matter though. This idea that voting should be as easy and convenient as possible is just nonsense. The government doesn’t try to make anything else easy or convenient, so obviously there’s a partisan interest in one party worrying about their voters not having enough commitment.

[Smapti]

I have never in my life seen a line at a polling place, and now that I live in a state where all voting is done by mail I don’t even have to put my pants on in order to exercise the franchise.

[TriPolar]

@adaher

This idea that voting should be as easy and convenient as possible is just nonsense.

Why is this nonsense? Without that, we don’t really have democracy. If you believe the democratic process is not the best way to select our representatives, then say so.

[adaher]

I support democracy fully, I just don’t see the point of the drive to make it easier and easier. If they’d put this much effort into making jury duty easy…

[Accidental_Martyr]

In 2004 I had to vote on The University of Alabama campus. I got to stand in line with a bunch of frat boys and sorority girls wearing “Greeks For Bush” T-shirts. That was fun.

[MaxTheVool]

@adaher

This idea that voting should be as easy and convenient as possible is just nonsense.

Arguably an interesting topic for another thread. BUT, it is crystal clear to me that it should be equally easy and convenient to vote for all voters, and it CERTAINLY should not be the case that it is easier to vote in some districts than others, with the breakdown “coincidentally” coinciding with party affiliation.

[Evil_Captor]

@adaher

Stealing an election is very hard to do, because our system is so decentralized and it’s hard to know in advance which state or states will be pivotal. Let’s say you fix Florida. Oops, there goes Ohio, you risked 20 years in prison for nothing. Now if we ever adopt the crazy idea that we should have national elections, no electoral college, then we’ll see some election fixing. Just stuff some ballot boxes in LA and Chicago and there ya go.

I am not buying that one. Political junkies have already been predicting the battleground states for months, and that is in fact where the campaigns have been concentrating their media buys. Are you saying that these predictions are often wrong? So far as I know, these predictions of which states will be close tend to be very accurate: cf., 2000 which turned on Florida, and 2004 which turned on Ohio, both of which were regarded as battleground states well in advance of the election.

[Evil_Captor]

@Tom_Tildrum

The pollsters’ own conclusions, from 2005, are reported here.

Tom, the net result of that article can be summed up precisely in this phrase: “We don’t know.”

They said they found no evidence of vote rigging or vote fraud, but of course, one of the devilish things about computerized voting is that it’s virtually indetectable, one done. The report ascribes the difference to a higher rate of reporting in among Kerry voters than Bush voters. But they have NO idea why or how this happens:

“Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average within-precinct error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. . . . While the size of the average exit poll error has varied [in past elections], it was higher in 2004 than in previous years for which we have data,” Lenski and Mitofsky wrote.

But they acknowledged in the report that they remain at a loss to explain precisely why Bush supporters, or Republicans generally, were more likely to refuse to be interviewed than Kerry voters.

Really, that is the equivalent of a shrug my friends.

You know what WOULD explain the difference between the numbers for Bush supporters vs. Kerry supporters? Vote rigging or vote fraud.

[Evil_Captor]

@Ibn_Warraq

So basically we have an article from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.(a true non-partisan) an anti-vaccination whacko and a link to a truther website and some people insisting that exit polls are never inaccurate.

Sounds like an open and shut case to me.

Sounds like a closed mind to me.

[Evil_Captor]

@Left_Hand_of_Dorkness

It seems pretty clear to me that the 2000 elections were an absolute travesty of democracy and will be remembered in the history books as a completely embarrassing failure of our system.

The 2004 elections, not so much. I mean, sure, we elected the wrong guy, but the evidence of shenanigans is pretty close to nonexistent.

Actually, the circumstantial evidence is pretty close to overwhelming. Why were the exit polls very accurate in Kerry precincts but wildly inaccurate in Bush precincts? Why were the exit poll discrepancies “higher in battleground states, higher where there were Republican governors, higher in states with greater proportions of African-American communities, and higher in states where there were the most Election Day complaints”?

Taken individually, the tendency would be to shrug and go “meh.” Taken together, they are indicative of vote fraud.

[adaher]

@Evil_Captor

I am not buying that one. Political junkies have already been predicting the battleground states for months, and that is in fact where the campaigns have been concentrating their media buys. Are you saying that these predictions are often wrong? So far as I know, these predictions of which states will be close tend to be very accurate: cf., 2000 which turned on Florida, and 2004 which turned on Ohio, both of which were regarded as battleground states well in advance of the election.

The battleground states are always known in advance, but no one knows which state will be the one that turns the election, or even if it will come down to one state. Fixing a national election would be easier than fixing multiple state elections.

[Ibn_Warraq]

@Evil_Captor

Sounds like a closed mind to me.

You think people who think anti-vaccers and truthers aren’t credible are close minded?

“Gullible” is not a synonym for being “open-minded.”

[adaher]

As for the exit polls, whose exit polls? CNN’s exit polls showed Bush winning the popular vote overall:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

Also, other exit pollsters that got bad results said that Republican voters were refusing interviews in large numbers:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22188-2005Jan19.html

and unlike with Florida 2000, the exit polls were not so badly off that it caused a state to be incorrectly called by any networks, which rely on exit polling for their projections.