Will Al Gore power brokering before the convention help or hinder the Obama Campaign? According to this article Gore has reason to broker in Obama’s favor. However, with the party’s deep divide among voters I’m wondering who will gain the nod in the fairest way. Clinton has a lot of supporters, Obama has a lot of supporters - their platforms are essentially the same with some differences. Clinton is by all accounts not as inspiring and doesn’t give people the warm and fuzzies as much as Obama does [IMHO]. Clinton has had a lot of years to make enemies and to garner some friends I wonder who has the most pull in the end? Her enemies or her supporters. The polls show they are in a veritbale neck and neck race. So obviously people like both candidates - Obama is currently enjoying a moderate lead and after tomorrow’s primaries in HI and WI we’ll see if he can go 10 for 10. He is expected to do so, so I and the rest of the nation must sit by and watch what happens in TX, OH, PA in the coming weeks. If Obama can keep it close he may force the hand of the superdelegates in his favor.
What do people think Gore and other Dem leaders will do to power broker the candidate most likely to win? Pelosi is already calling for the FL and MI seats to stay ‘unseated’ so this may not bode well for HRC, but can she win it anyway?
The MI/FL thing has already been a mistake by the Dems. To now count them when only one candidate really ran would compound the mistake by making it worse.
How much power does Gore have with the party? Isn’t it significantly less than Pelosi or Clinton herself? I would think Gore has no more sway at this point than Edwards.
I’m not so sure, his environmental initiatives gained him a lot of support over the last few years. And if he had no clout with dems, why would certain washingtonites be touting his brokering anything. Personally, I think an endorsement by him may be a sweet, sweet topping to anyone’s pie. That could be the dirt worshipping treehugger in me, I dunno.
Power brokers are people who are still in the political game. Gore has pretty much taken himself out of the game, so I don’t see why those who are still in the game and who very much want to position themselves as power brokers would invite him to step to the front of the line.
Is Gore a superdelagate? I would assume so; I don’t really expect to see him step in at all untill the end of the primaries and only to support who ever was the pledged delagate and/or popular vote winner.
All though, should Clinton pull of a coup of the nomination with the superdelagates and/or Florida and Michigan, I could maybe see Gore stepping in and running as a third party, perhaps even coaxing Obama on to the back of the ticket.
Hmm… :dubious:
…come to think of it, maybe I should start rooting for Hillary.
I seriously doubt Gore will form a third party run. If he wanted to be prez, his best course would’ve been to seek the Dem nomination, he didn’t, so I don’t think he wants to be prez, and probably wants even less to fracture the Dem party vote in November.
I imagine he’ll stay uncommitted so long as there is no clear frontrunner. His primary desire these days seems to be to fight Global Warming, and the best course for him to do that is to stay on everyones good side and then help campaign for the Dem nominee in the general election.
If Gore came out and publicly supported Obama over Clinton, that would be a huge blow to her. If he supported her, it probably wouldn’t do her as much good and might damage him.
Damn straight. I’m not sure what they’re calling “a knockout punch,” but any scenario where the candidate who wins a majority of pledged candidates and the popular vote isn’t the party nominee would be disastrous. The only case in which they could possibly sell a brokered decision is if the popular vote and the pledged-delegate count go different ways – has anybody figured the probability of that happening?
As another dirt worshipping treehugger*, I am purposely trying to remain objective about how important he is at this point. I could see his endorsement if it was strong and ringing help to sway some green voters, but I doubt it will sway the run of the mill Democrats and as John Mace pointed out, he doesn’t have much sway in the party at this point.
Jim
I find Obama has the best grasp of the Green issues and making them work in the real world and is one of the two main reasons why I support him. I think this country needs an energizing leader and speaker after the current admin’s world disgrace and the domestic embarrassments of Bill.
I think that would only become a concern if the Florida and Michigan results are included. Here are the numbers so far.
Without Florida and Michigan, Obama has a popular vote lead of 703,830, which would be difficult for Hillary to overcome. (Perhaps impossible to overcome without Hillary also taking a delegate lead.)
If Florida and Michigan are included, Obama still has a lead of 80,749, but that lead could be overcome by Hillary with even relatively narrow victories in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. That could leave her with more popular votes (though not legitimately so, in the eyes of most), while Obama would likely still hold the delegate lead.
That is why we can expect the Clintons to work very hard to seat Michigan and Florida, to provide some veneer of credibility to those party insiders who want to give her the nomination in spite of the delegate count.
I think, however, that in the event of a brokered convention, even Hillary supporters would be turned off enough not to stick around. Add to that the appeal of, finally, a more than viable third party ticket, and the ‘do it over’/‘what could’ve been’ appeal of a Gore Presidency, and the ‘golden child’ as VP; I think it would be a lot closer than you imply. I know it’s a pipe dream anyway, but I just really like to imagine a Gore/Obama ticket; YMMV.
What is Gore’s day-to-day, working relationship with the Democratic Party like right now? Particularly its leadership? Is there anyway the Green Party could go about recruiting him? With a leader of his status, I imagine that, if he wanted to, he could really build that up into a strong, competitive party.
I have no idea. On some days, I am not cynical enough to believe it. On other days, I am.
What I do know is that if they hand the nomination to Hillary in spite of an elected delegate count that favors Obama, they will destroy the party’s chances in November-- and perhaps for years to come.
But I would never understimate the proclivity of my party to shoot itself in the foot.
If Hillary got even 10% of the Democratic vote, that would probably be enough to hand a win to McCain. And my guess is she’d get closer to 50% than 10%.
