I realize many people have been abducted in Iraq and none deserved their fate. But if central casting had been asked to pick somebody whose death would most outrage the American public, they would have picked Jill Carroll. Do the insurgents realize that if they kill her, American public opinion will demand massive retaliation? People will be calling for airstrikes against Iraqi towns suspected of having insurgent camps and mass round-ups of potential insurgents. Do her abducters think they will somehow benefit from this?
The problem is you are trying to apply logic to a situation where none exist.
I find it hard to believe the war will get any more converts at this point.
The pro-war people will want revenge and anti-war people will say she wouldn’t have been there in the first place but for the war.
I don’t expect anyone to change sides over this. Possibly those already on the extreme of ether side will become more so. Overall “American public opinion” will remain unchanged.
The insurgents will benefit from any reaction- that is the strength of their position. Effecctively, in chess terms the US is in Zugzwang:
“In chess, zugzwang (German for “compulsion to move”, IPA: [ˈtsuːk.tsvɑŋ]) occurs when one player is put at a disadvantage because he or she has to make a move — the player would like to pass and make no move, but the fact that the player must make one means being forced into a weaker position.”
If that actually happened, it would be a massive boost for the resistance. Indiscriminate killing and imprisonment hasn’t won us any friends yet; doing it on a larger scale will just make it worse. They may even be hoping for such a reaction.
My outrage-meter isn’t really pinging much on this one. Not that it isn’t a horrible thing, but I’ve really gotten used to the notion that terrible things happen regularly in Iraq (most of them to Iraqis). Years of occupation and violence have somewhat numbed me, I fear. If that’s true of other Americans, don’t expect much response.
Actually, it will be interesting to see how the press plays this.
Does this mean the terrorists are now worse people, or their cause more discredited, because they targetted a journalist? And if it means, “we should pull out of Iraq, now”, then why don’t the media pull their people out of Iraq, now?
Regards,
Shodan
Probably about the same thing that happened to Daniel Pearl, the journalist who was IIRC killed last year. Not much.
This time it’s interesting, from what I’ve heard on the news, anyway, that a number of Muslim groups and individuals are quoted as saying she should be released.
Becuase news is happening in Iraq; therefore, the newspeople need to be there. Obviously.
No, it won’t, and no, they won’t. People have pretty much made their minds up about Iraq, I think. They’re not getting more disgusted as far as I can tell, and I think they’re pretty well inured to the ransoming and killing of hostages. The insurgents have done it so many times that it saddens, but fails to shock. Even if you think the hostage in question is someone out of central casting.
Pearl was killed four years ago.
That’s precisely what Al-Qaida is hoping for.
I think the reaction is being underestimated. Dozens of abductees have been killed but none have been cute white girls. Jill Carroll is newsworthy the same way that Jessica Lynch and Laci Peterson and Natalee Holloway were. It may not be fair but it’s an undeniable fact.
If Jill Carroll is killed, her face will be on the cover of Time and Newsweek and People magazine next week. And people who have been saying things like “Why don’t we just pull out and leave Iraq to the Iraqis?” and “I’m not completely comfortable with this whole torture thing” and “Why are we bombing Pakistan if they’re supposed to be on our side?” will suddenly be saying “Those damned ragheads killed that little girl! I say we give 'em a taste of their own medicine! Let’s nuke Baghdad and see how they feel about it!”
I think that this is an overstatement. The reason that we’ve heard about Carroll is that she’s in the media, not because she’s a cute white girl. The media always goes crazy when one of their own is kidnapped or killed. I can only think of two specific individuals that were killed in Afghanistan, Pat Tillman the football player and Daniel Pearl the journalist. I believe that there will be disgust and outrage on that part of the media (and rightfully so) but that the reaction of the public at large will be minimal fading quickly to non-existant
and guess which outcome Al Qaeda would prefer. :rolleyes:
They want the US to be thinking like that. It is that sort of response that plays directly into their hands. Intellectual questioning of the war movement does nothing to fulfil Al Qaeda’s aims; what they want and need is massive over reaction and further atrocities.
I’ve always wondered: What is it that al Qaeda **doesn’t **prefer?
The ‘that’s exactly what the terrorists want’ line, I’ve heard over and over.
It might be helpfull to know what makes al Qaeda disgusted and miserable.
About Jill Caroll: I truly hope she isn’t a second Susanne Osthoff
Wait, I thought you pro-war folks were the ones who were answering this every time you spoke. They hate freedom! And democracy! And puppies!
They certainly would hate freedom and democracy, because both foster debate which puts bullshit (especially their extremist variety) to rest.
What they like, and Bin Laden has already stated so, is disorder. They can hide and operate in disorder (Afghanistan, Sudan, Iraq) far better than where there is law and order. And nothing pads their enrollment like some senseless collective punishment.
**Little Nemo[/b}:
what makes you think this one will provoke such a strong reaction? From what I recall, the first one of these to be widely reported in the west was Nicholas Berg. And the outrage seemed more directed at the videotaped beheading than the death. Since then, there have been many more kidnappings resulting in death including Margaret Hassan who was seen as practically a saint without anything nearing the reaction you’re predicting. You think Americans are going to go nuts because this girl is mildly attractive?
In my opinion, among other things : Peace, religious tolerance, civilized discourse and behavior.