What will be the general issues in the 2014 U.S. elections?

[BrainGlutton]

@Kolak_of_Twilo

Not the point. If the Court rules in a way limiting the use of recess appointments it will be used by the Fox spin machine and R’s like Issa to scare their base. Did you read the story I linked to? Issa goes on about Obama’s “imperial presidency” and what a threat he is to the nation. I expect this line of blather to pick up steam as the fall elections approach. A Supreme Court ruling against the Obama administration in this case will be pointed at as just another case of how undemocratic and power hungry he is.

But it won’t get any traction beyond their base, not even among LWs likewise apprehensive of the “imperial presidency.”

[BrainGlutton]

Relevant article from Salon: Apparently the Republicans have given up on getting anything done this year, or even trying to.

After House Speaker John Boehner put immigration reform back on ice a couple weeks ago, the most obvious assessment was that the GOP had completely suspended its own agenda, at least until after midterm elections. That the Republican party’s political strategy will consist solely of an eight-month long bet that the Affordable Care Act will doom Democrats in November.

That was definitely my assessment. I know others shared it. But in case you’re looking for third-party validation, conservative reporters back us up.

The Washington Post’s Robert Costa concludes: ”Comprehensive immigration reform, tax reform, tweaks to the federal health-care law — bipartisan deals on each are probably dead in the water for the rest of this Congress.” He reports:

“We don’t have 218 votes in the House for the big issues, so what else are we going to do?” said Rep. Devin Nunes (Calif.), an ally of House Speaker John A. Boehner (Ohio). “We can do a few things on immigration and work on our principles, but in terms of real legislating, we’re unable to get in a good negotiating position.”

Added Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster who works closely with party leaders: “It is an acknowledgment of where they stand, where nothing can happen in divided government so we may essentially have the status quo. Significant immigration reform and fundamental tax reform are probably not going to happen.”

It’s not so uncommon for legislative activity to slow down ahead of an election, so I won’t pretend this is some kind of extraordinary phenomenon.

But February is a little early for one party to make a total transition from policymaking to politicking, particularly when the other is actively rolling out a positive, popular agenda.

The Senate’s already passed a comprehensive, bipartisan immigration reform bill and the Employment Non-Discrimination Act. If Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid uses the Senate to pass (or to force Republicans to filibuster) another bill renewing emergency unemployment compensation, a Voting Rights Act patch, an equal pay bill, a minimum wage bill, and so on, it’s going to start to look extremely awkward if the House has literally nothing to offer in return other than comparably picayune gimmicks.

[adaher]

@2ManyTacos

:dubious:

Dude, the Democrats are not going to override their own President in order to get rid of their greatest achievement as a party since the Johnson administration.

That will never, ever happen in any conceivable universe.

They’d be willing to lose in 2016 to keep ACA? They can lose both, you know. Then where does that leave them?

Mind you, I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but if 2014 went extremely badly due to ACA, then that would logically tell us that 2016 can go the same way.

[BrainGlutton]

@adaher

. . . but if 2014 went extremely badly due to ACA . . .

I’ll tell you a secret: It won’t.

[adaher]

How do you think it will go? Will the polling for Democrats improve, or will it only be a major disaster(losing the Senate) as opposed to catastrophic(losing the Senate and then some)?

[ElvisL1ves]

If 2012 went very well for the Dems on the basis of ACA, which it did, which may be why you’re pretending it didn’t happen while 2010 did, what makes you think 2016 will be the opposite?

[BrainGlutton]

@adaher

How do you think it will go? Will the polling for Democrats improve, or will it only be a major disaster(losing the Senate) as opposed to catastrophic(losing the Senate and then some)?

At this point I think it could go any way, including party-control of both houses changing – but, you’re asking a question that really belongs in a different thread.

What I’m sure of is that very few swing voters are going to vote R because of the ACA; if it has any effect on them at all, it will get them to vote D. Nor will the ACA be a significant factor in voter turnout.

[adaher]

Why did independents go for Rs so overwhelmingly in 2010? It’s hard to argue against ACA being the biggest issue in 2010. That cannot be said for 2012. Especially since Obama managed to tie Romney to the idea as a method of inoculating himself. Plus nothing was taking effect. Now voters are feeling the pain.

[BrainGlutton]

@adaher

Why did independents go for Rs so overwhelmingly in 2010? It’s hard to argue against ACA being the biggest issue in 2010. That cannot be said for 2012. Especially since Obama managed to tie Romney to the idea as a method of inoculating himself. Plus nothing was taking effect. Now voters are feeling the pain.

They are also getting the benefits. You will find it outweighs the pain.

[Chronos]

Why did independents go for Rs so overwhelmingly in 2010?

Because the “independents” in 2010 mostly were Republicans.