Inspired by this thread: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=334953
The next presidential election is still three years away. But it’s just a little over a year to the next Congressional election. Over what issues will it be fought? Iraq and the GWAT? Tax policy? Energy policy? Civil liberties? Will abortion and gay marriage play important roles? And what positions are the major parties likely to take on the issues as they emerge?
If gas prices remain high, the Dems will clobber the Pubbies about them. If they have the likely effect on the economy, look for more clobbering (this all presupposes that the Dems have sense and balls, neither of which have been much in evidence over the last few election cycles).
Barring the unforeseen, the war in Iraq will also be a major issue. So long as soldiers keep getting shipped home in body bags, it’ll be an issue … as it should be. Dems leaders will probably not press this one as strongly as they should, being gutless.
Pubs will make a strong attempt to brand Dems as the party of gay marriage, but the Dems, remembering the overwhelming numbers it was rejected by in the last election, will have none of it. It’s the right thing to do, but nobody’s gonna do it with those numbers out there.
Abortion will be important exactly to the extent that it looks as if Roe v. Wade will be overturned. If it IS overturned, look for a real donnybrook.
Look for the Dems to use Iraq and the Katrina response debacle as an indictment of Republican competence. The Pubbies have been in power long enough to fuck up, and they have, royally. Look for the Dems to capitalize.*
*Once again, presupposing the Dems aren’t rock-stupid. I would NEVER make such a supposition based on recent history.
Given the deep, deep divide in the country I suspect “issues” will play even less of a role in the coming election than they have in the past. It’ll be a straight-up referendum on the current administration.
What he said.
Hold everything!
Bathroom Break Issue, long suppressed, finally burst forth, not to be denied any longer!
(I’m for it)
Being the wide eyed optimist that I am (not), I expect it to be America lovers vs America haters, freedom lovers vs freedom haters, loyals vs traitors, left vs right, straight ticket Dems vs straight ticket Repubs. In short, all spin, lies and bullshit with lots of personal attacks tossed in. Business as usual. I preditc there will be one or two wedge issues that are pure bullshit, and we will still be deeply divided and at each other’s throats.
The juggernaunt of incumbency will roll once again and the House and Senate will remain in Republican hands.
Slick hair, nice ties, American Flags, & Ja-HEEEZ-us.
But no substance, no.
Well, there’s a safe prediction.
Historically the President’s party loses ground in 2nd term midterms.
Issues? Still largely local and state-oriented but the War will be an issue and economics if gas is still high.
It’s a safe prediction because the Republicans have used creative redistricting to give their incumbents some very nearly unassailable positions. (Can’t blame them … Dems do the same thing all the time.) There’s no way the Dems can win the House, though they can certainly make inroads. They might conceivably get the Senate, but it’s not a likely proposition, no matter how mad everybody but the tighty-righties are at Bush.
Not a fundamentally insoluble problem. See this thread: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=314742&highlight=gerrymandering
The issues will be this:
Democrats: Are you better off now than in 2001?
Republicans: Vote for us or else gays get married.
Likely this will work. Opposition to gay marriage is strong.
lol…then the Republicans will win I’d say. I figure unless the economy totally tanks in the next few months that most folks WILL think we are better off now than when the dot com bust went down. That was a pretty bleak frigging year with the economy tanking, recession, 9/11, etc.
I doubt it will be a major issue to be honest unless the Democrats push this next year…which I doubt. My guess is both sides will avoid this issue. If the Republicans are stupid enough to hammer on this even if the Dems back off of it, then it will probably hurt them…could just be wishful thinking on my part of course.
Short and to the point…and hits the main points IMHO. I doubt we are going to see a sea change in '06, and I’ll be shocked if in general there is a major change from what we have now. Maybe in '08 the Dems will finally manage to put someone in the Presidency…depends on if they finally decide to run a moderate non-senator, though thats just my opinion. Maybe running a far lefty is really whats going to put them over the top…certainly that seems the consensus here at the SDMB. 
Issues? We don’t need no stinking issues! Not when we have partisan politics as usual. I doubt there is going to be a ‘main’ issue, not in '06…nor do I believe this is going to be a ‘referendum on the current administration’, least not in THIS election. '08 might be a different kettle of fish though.
-XT
The opposition is so strong that it WON’T work. The only Democrat I can think of who won’t look at the numbers and immediately decide he or she opposes gay marriage is Barney Frank. The Pubbies might try to run a Swift Boat-style disinformation campaign accusing the Dems of supporting gay marriage, and it may work, but the Dems if they have any sense might even put a plank opposing gay marriage in their platform. Gonna have to be some groundwork laid before this baby gets off the ground, and the only thing the Dems will get for supporting it is the avid thanks of 2-5 percent of their constituency and a lot of “better luck next times”.
OTOH, if they do oppose gay marriage too strongly, and especially if they oppose half-measures such as civil unions, that small, but political active and affluent, section of the left might bolt, and either support a third party or simply not show up to the polls (or even worse, not support teh party financially). Dems can’t win by losing.