With the increase of violence between Shiite/Sunni and possibly the Kurds what will a full blown civil war mean for the US troops in Iraq? Will they pull back to bases? Try to separate the different factions, at a great cost of life?
Since day one, my biggest concern was that civil war would erupt, and sadly, it looks like it may be inevitable now.
Will Kurds try to come in from Turkey to help there comrades if it breaks out? Will Iran’s Shia come across to help there comrades?
Basically is this actually as serious as my pessimistic outlook is making me think it is?
Its pretty damned serious. I’d say Iraq is right on the verge of an all out civil war…with the US caught squarely in the middle. If there is a silver lining here I’m not aware of it.
What will the US do? Probably be sucked into staying there even longer to try and prevent all the wheels from falling off. I’m unsure it will do much good but I’m fairly certain that pulling out would be worse. I doubt we’ll pull back to our bases and just watch from the sidelines as Iraq goes completely tits up…we’ll probably be right in the thick of things unfortunately.
And of course all this plays right into the hands of the maniacs who blew up that mosque
My guess is, American troops will be in the middle, killing and being killed by all sides. Withdrawing to the bases or from Iraq would amount to Bush admitting he’s wrong, and I honestly think he’d rather die. He’ll certainly let others die.
Well my pessimist outlook is correct judging from your replies. That sucks. The other half, will Iran’s Shia population, Turkeys Kurd population get involved? And with that a whole new can o’ worms for me to distress over.
(I still have a sibling in the Army, and one still on IRR)
Of a group of 8 best friends, there are 5 of us over there.
I wonder how they can sit and let someone tear up their own country and walk right into the trap? Maybe someone else does, because I don’t.
From the Sunni point of view, the problem is there are no definite ends to be achieved by a civil war. They don’t want the country split up – but it is impossible for them to win a return to the status quo ante bellum, when a Sunni elite ruled all. So I don’t think there’s really going to be a civil war, just an indefinite series of bombings and so on.
Depends on what you mean by a civil war. I doubt there’ll be clear front lines, the way there was in the American civil war. But if two or more organized, well-armed factions trying to kill each other in large numbers constitutes a civil war, then it looks as if it’s already underway.
A serious question – how would not pulling back to our bases work (“work” as in “be successful”)? Assuming open conflict between factions, how do US troops possibly engage without enflaming both sides?
I suppose it would depend on your definition of ‘successful’. To be honest I don’t see pulling back to the bases by the US as working reguardless of definition though.
As for the second part of your question, obviously we’d have to choose sides. My guess is we’ll come down on the ‘side’ the majority of the government is on…i.e. we’ll weigh in somehow or other on the Shi’ite side against the Sunni. I’m sure we won’t make many Shi’ite friends by doing so and we’ll continue to piss off the Sunni, but thats how I see it.
A good question to ask though is…what would happen if the US decided at this point to pack it in and call it a day? Would things completely fly apart? Or would they be better…perhaps simmer down? Bottom line…what effect, positive or negative would the US decision to bring the troops have in Iraq?
Myself, I don’t know…sounds like the devil and the deep blue sea…
One of the things that suck about politics is the things you have to hope for, unless you are an utter cynic (not Cynic…cynic). I have to hope that this means that the nationalist insurgents will turn on the foreign jihadists to the detriment of both. That all sides in this conflict will shudder at the brink and form a centrist, federalist governance that is acceptable to all concerned. A puppy, and a collective maypole dance would also be nice.
Should such a miracle come about, the Bushiviks would smugly claim that thier brilliant scheme of geopolitical tinkering had worked precisely as they had planned, and peace and prosperity for all. Its hard to be happy when you’re puking yer guts out. But I’d try, Lord, I’d try.
Far be it from me to dis-believe such an attempt at a heart felt and teary eyed admission 'luci, but seems more a win/win for you when you put it like that. If it all flies apart you can sit back with a facade of deep mouring, tearfully accepting that you’d been right all along. If somehow it manages to work out you can sit back and grimly say you are happy, while pointing out (repeatedly no doubt) that Bushco just got lucky.
I’m sure none of this ever crossed your mind though.
Dunno 'bout the 'luc, but in my own case, the outbreak of a full-scale civil war costing at least tens of thousands more Iraqi lives and probably thousands more US troop lives wouldn’t require any damn “facade” to produce the appearance of deep mourning. I’m pretty sure I’d be able to get there without even trying.
Similarly, I will have absofuckinlutely NO difficulty feeling genuinely happy if the Iraqis manage to pull the chestnuts out of the fire on this one. I think the Administration has already amply proved that it didn’t know what the hell it was up to in Iraq, and I won’t begrudge it to them if they get lucky for a change. Given the lives that would be saved, that one’s a no-brainer. (Sure, I’d still point out repeatedly that the Administration just got lucky, and why not? If they or their supporters think that they can argue otherwise, let 'em try.)
Yeah, the Sunni want to rule 100% of the country eventhough they represent like 40% of the population. Until the Sunnis can accept that they’re never going to be able to exist as a minority-elite again we’re going to have problems.
I’m not necessarily sure partitioning the country would be a bad idea except for the fact the Kurds would want their own country if that was done, which would enrage Turkey to no end.
No no, xt, it was funny enough. I meant my reply to sound humorously feisty instead of aggressively bitter, but while I was typing it I got kind of depressed thinking about the situation and didn’t have the heart to add smilies. Didn’t mean to snap at you.
Actually a lot fewer than that. Half of that Sunni population is Kurdish. The Sunni Arabs that ran things was more like 20% of the population ( incidentally the Arabs are mostly Hanafi, while the Kurds are mostly Shafa’i, not that such is a huge difference or the source of much partisan dispute ).
The problem is, is that according to people that have done interviews with average Sunni Arab citizens on the ground, many ( perhaps most ) Sunni Arabs think they are in the demographic majority. They used to run things, right? So they must have been the majority. This is why there was so much anger at the last election - how could they, who are in the majority and were finally agreeing to participate, not come out on top in the election? The Shi’a, Kurds and their American stooges must have rigged things.
There is a huge disconnect there and it is just one of a number of confounding issues on which intercommunal trust quickly founders.
let us pause to recall the the last time in recent memory that members of the Turkish armed forces were disarmed and held (if momentarily) as prisoners was when we (82nd? 101st?)intervened to back them off of some Kurds they were expressing interest in, several kilometers across the Iraq-Turkey border.
