What will happen between Pujols and the Cards this year?

Okay, that’s possible. I said I’d be shocked if he goes to FA, but I guess what I mean is I’d be shocked if he seriously entertains other offers. His value is higher in St. Louis than anywhere else, and I think both he and they know that.

Gotta say, I don’t see that. He’s the best hitter in either league, and probably will be through at least the first half of his contract. That has serious value anywhere.

God I hope Pujols is in it just for the money, so the Orioles can sign him. We’ve got money to blow - we gave Vladimir Guerrero eight million dollars, for crying out loud, when we already have a DH who hits better than he does.

No question he’d be valuable to anyone (although to teams like the Yankees and Sox, who have very good first basemen under contract, there’s the question of how much of an upgrade he would be). But the Cardinals are built around him for there’s the whole “he’s our guy and we love him” thing. That matters to some players. The thing here is that Pujols probably already feels he gave the Cardinals a hometown discount on his current contract, so they’re not going to get one this time.

He’s more valuable to the Cardinals than any other team for marketing purposes, as a long-standing superstar with one team. It’s the same dynamic that makes Derek Jeter more valuable to the Yankees than he would be anywhere else.

On-field value is well-quantified in baseball (though defensive evaluation needs work), and for unrecognized journeymen players, that is their value from the team’s point of view. The calculations are more complicated with superstar players, names that people who aren’t baseball nuts might recognize. These are the players whose names and images can be used to promote the team. The best of them keep bringing value for their teams even after they retire.

If you look at the way teams do their marketing, the way player-branded merch sells, the long-term image of a team and its relationship with fans (read: local broadcasting contracts and season tickets), it becomes clear that having established stars stay with one team expands off-field value even more. The Pujols and Cardinals brands enrich each other in a cumulative way that can’t transfer elsewhere.

Think of Henry Aaron at the end of 1974. He was among the biggest names in baseball, had just set an all-time record. The Milwaukee Brewers could buy (trade for) a little of his shine for a couple years, and benefited from Aaron’s prior association with the city. But the bulk of his star value remained in Atlanta, with the team he played twenty-one seasons for. The Braves continue to make money directly and indirectly from Aaron to this day, and happily pay him a sinecure salary to put on a cap a couple times a year and maintain the association.*

It occurs to me that the teams that paid the big money for the last contracts with brands like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens aren’t going to get their money’s worth on those.

  • Aaron’s actual playing contracts, of course, were vastly smaller than what an equivalent star would be paid today, though Aaron was for a time the best-paid player in the game. The point here is the accumulation and non-transference of the intangible star value.

They can make a move for Pujols if they DH him. Pujols would be a significant upgrade over last year’s aggregate Yankee DH and the DH whom they used the most last year (and the most successful), Marcus Thames, is gone. They probably won’t make a move for Pujols (I’m sure Pujols wants to field), but I don’t think Teixeira would be a limiting factor.

He’s going to the Cubs. For spite.

Don’t tease me bro. I could imagine an incentive (and desire) to go to the Cubs; if he did and they won the World Series, ostensibly because of him, he’d be the all-time hero of Chicago and Cubs fans.

Plus it’d be some measure of retribution for Lou Brock. If I’m the Cubs I at least make sure to bid the price up far enough to financially handcuff the Cards for years to come.

The deadline has been pushed back a day. Stan The Man is getting the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Tuesday, and the club and Pujols say they don’t want to distract from Stan’s day with contract news. I think this is a nice move. Stan’s not going to be with us much longer, and he should get to be the center of Cardinal Fandom’s attention one more time. Good for Stan!

As for the negotiations – the (presumably) bad news for Cards fans is scheduled to be delivered at 11:00 Central Time on Wednesday.

See, I still don’t buy it. Jeter is a different case from Pujols because Jeter is clearly in the fading years of his career; he’s still a good player, and he might have one more MVP-style season in him, but that isn’t the way to bet. His nostalgia value for Yankee fans is more important than anything he’s likely to do with the rest of his career.

Pujols would be a huge part of the marketing for whatever team signed him (even the Yankees); depending on how he did, he could end up as a legend for his new team, although he would probably remain identified with the Cardinals after his career. I just don’t see the marketing angle as having an actual dollar value to either Pujols or the Cardinals beyond the fact that the Cardinals would be a much weaker team without him.

I’d say the ultimate reaction to players’ team-switching is much more likely to be driven by their personalities, relations with the media, and general PR abilities. Joe Morgan played the last five years of his career for four different non-Reds teams, and played less than half his career games in Cincinatti; he’s not any less identified with the Reds for all that.

The Cubs being the Cubs, Pujols would sign for immense bucks and, like Broglio, wake up two weeks later unable to lift his arm.

Or he’d remain healthy but, for the first time in his career, perform badly, .236 with 18 HR, 68 RBI, and the Cubs (again) contend with the Pirates for upside down first place. Then they’d trade him to Kansas City just before the deadline for a set of minor leaguers.

That would be possible since the Yanks’ #1 DH this year may well be Posada. I just can’t see spending that much for a DH. If you’re going to spend that kind of money, I think you need to get a player who fields a position that you’re weak in.

He’s definitely going to be the primary DH. The Yankees still have Cervelli and two catching prospects, and they signed what’s left of Russell Martin in the offseason. Posada is going to make around $13 million this year as their DH. He’s going to be 40 this season. I don’t think they expect him back next year, but any way you look at it, they have players and money committed to DH (since they have A-Rod under contract for a long time and don’t expect him to play at third that much longer) and Teixeira at first base. And as great a hitter as Pujols is, you’re giving away some of his value if you DH him, which makes it that much harder to justify his salary.

I don’t see either the competitive or marketing as angles to sign with the Cardinals.

The Cardinals have been a very good team over recent history, but a lot that reason is Albert Pujols. Pujols has been an 8 win player, add that to most teams and they will be competitive. I don’t see much of a difference between say the Blue Jays and Cardinals minus Pujols. This is also going to be a 8-10 year contract, so current talent isn’t as important as future talent. The Cardinals have limited young talent, a weak system, and are in a small market. There are many teams I’d rather sign with if I wished to win than the Cardinals.

Marketingwise I assume most Cardinals who want Pujols jerseys already have them. Short term, every other team could make revenue from Pujols than the Cardinals. That isn’t really a big issue though. Pujols is a star and will be a star everywhere. Simply put stars are more valuable in bigger markets. That is why the yankees payroll is so high. It isn’t that they have more money to spend, but rather that winning gives them a much greater return than it would for the pirates or cardinals, so they have a greater incentive to sign star players. As for the franchise icon, you don’t have look past Griffey to see Pujols can still be a Cardinal for life if he wishes.