So, if Iran produces weapons-grade nuclear material, and Israel strikes the reactor at Bushehr Osirak-style, what are the political and military ramifications? How will the world community respond - the US, EU, Russians, Arabs, UN? Assume some sort of credible proof is provided.
Side questions: Would it be justified? Does Israel have any other choice? ISTM that a nuclear Iran is untenable. The Iranian government has openly called for the destruction of Israel, and the production of nuclear weapons is an obvious huge step towards that goal. It would be ridiculous for Israel to try to count on cooler heads prevailing in a nuclear Iran. But I am interested in what the potential consequences would be if this happened. I have my own predictions but I’d rather hold them and consider the ideas of others for now.
In short, it would spark a chain of events that would eventually lead to the end of the world as we know it.
It is highly unlikely that Israel would be able to get permission from any country to use their airspace for an air attack (although some speculate that Turkey would allow it, but that is highly doubtful considering Iran’s non-aggression pact with Turkey). The more plausible scenario would include Israel’s new German subs and their cruise missiles.
Iran will have nuclear power and weapons within 2-5 years and there is nothing that the US or Israel can do about it. If there is an attempt at any type of strike, then the US will definitely steer clear of it. If the US provides assistance (either logistic or primary) they will have to answer to the international community (and also to the wave of martyrs from sympathetic Islamic nations).
The Russians will be quite upset and will probably veto any attempt at legitimizing the attack in the UN. The only enemies that Iran has in the world are the US and Israel. The rest of the world (including all of Europe) has strong cultural and economic ties with Iran.
The reason that Iran should have nuclear weapons is very simple: stability. The region is unstable because one bully has all of the weapons. Iran is the region’s leader and will finally bring stability to the Middle East.
It is foolish and naive to believe that Iran would use those weapons against anyone (including Israel). No Iranian has ever been a terrorist and the government of Iran is not a terrorist state. Iran merely funds causes that furthers her interests. Exactly as the United States does.
The Mullahs and fundamentalist Islam are hurting one of the world’s greatest civilizations but the fact remains that Persians are Iranian first and then Muslim second. This provides a backdrop for two important facts. First is the fact that any attack on Iran is an attack on every single Persian in the world (minus the terrorists in the MEK). Second, Persians not only influence Arabs and Muslims, but also many western and African nations due to linguistic and historic ties.
To wrap things up, Israel will not attack and if they attempt (meaning that they will not succeed), then Israel will quickly be wiped from the earth and most of the world’s oil reserves will quickly become radioactive.
I find 2thicks assesment of the situation highly unlikely and unrealistic.
We’re talking about an “Axis of Evil” nation here. The question is not what Israel would do, but rather, how will the USA handle that threat. There is no way that Iran will be permitted to have WMD, in my opinion.
When the time comes, Israel would either act alone, as they did when they took out the Iraqi nuclear reactor a number of years back, or the USA would take action, while urging Israel to show restraint, similar to the current Iraq war.
There is no reason to believe that Iran would not use those weapons, as they have supplied the Palestinians with illegal weapons before. Also, given their friendship with various terror groups, there is nothing in stopping Iran from giving weapons away.
Simply put, I doubt they will ever be allowed to have such weapons.
I do find the comment that Iran acquiring such weapons would lead to stability in the region, to be highly comical. Yeah, let’s let a bunch of terrorist supporting Mad Men acquire Nukes ! That outta make the whole region safer, lol.
I respectfully submit that Israel won’t be asking for anyone’s permission to neutralize any potential threat of being vaporized. Whether it’s 2-5 years or 2-5 months, it simply won’t happen. Backlash from the international community will mean nothing to them. And it will be done in a way that will not involve the United States.
This is inane. It is no secret that when backed into a corner, Israel will, shall we say, take the final option. Israel is fully capable of destroying Iran’s nuclear reactor before anyone knows it’s even happened. What possible recourse would any Arab nation have against them without writing their own death warrant.
I am convinced you work for the government of Iran.
OK, perhaps I’m wrong, you’re just very passionate.
I agree that Israel will not ask for permission. As for the backlash from the international community, that will also fall on deaf ears (in Israel). The logistics for such an attack greatly limit the options for Israel. This means that Iran will know exactly how Israel will attack. This is a complicating factor, to say the least. If there were more viable options for such an attack, it would still not happen because even though the Lukid party controls the government, the majority of secular and moderate Israeli have everything to lose in this situation and will strongly resist such an unilateral attack.
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You see that Israel is not backed into a corner. At very worst Israel will only lose much clout in the region.
Also, for your information, Iranians are Persian and not Arab.
The US will do nothing. They signed a non-aggression act with Iran in order to release the hostages in the early 80s.
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Iran provides weapons to Palestinians just like the US supplies weapons to Israel. there is no difference. In fact, the US sold weapons to the Nazis for the first 2 years of WW2. Does that make the US a Nazi nation?
Iran has not attacked anyone in at least 100 years. Why would they start now?
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Just like N. Korea and Pakistan, right?
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If Israel continues it’s aggression against Middle Eastern nations and bombs an Iranian nuclear facility, perhaps someone will blow up Israel’s nuclear stockpile at Dimona. 2 Thick is right, why is Israel the only ME terrorist state allowed to have nuclear weapons?
E72521, what evidence do you have that Iran is a terrorist state, other than they purchased weapons from known international terrorist and traitor Oliver North?
Axis of evil? Pleazzz…think for yourselves peoples…
I am sure Iraq thought they would have nuclear power/weapons, pre-Osirak. How wrong they were. If either Israel or America decide to put an end to Iran’s nuclear program, it can be done with relative ease.
‘Answering to the international community’ is something that Israel and America don’t worry about, and rightfully so. Probably because there is no ‘international community’, but thats another topic.
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The UN cannot ‘legitimize’ anything. They are not the final arbiters of right and wrong in the world. Regardless, do you really think Israel (or America) would give two shits about what the UN has to say?
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The Middle East has been unstable long before Israel got its first nuke. It will be unstable long after Israel takes out the Iranian nuclear program.
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So the Iranians imported terrorists when they took the Americans hostage back in the early 80’s?
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Who do you think would nuke Israel for taking out the Iranian nuke program?
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Cite for the non-aggression pact?
The first half of your statement is an incredible display of moral euivalence.
The second half desperately needs a cite. I am rather intiimate with the Nazi German TO&E, and I cannot think of any weapons that America sold to it. Educate me.
Here is an interesting angle. This article claims that Iraq’s reactor at Osirak was not for the purpose of weapons proliferation, and they had followed international regulations. Israel bombed them anyway. AFter the bombing, Iraq began in earnest to develop a bomb. Talk about unintended consequences. Sometimes one’s paranoia leads to actions which create a world that justifies it.
The US will do nothing. They signed a non-aggression act with Iran in order to release the hostages in the early 80s.
I did a google search inorder to read this non-aggresion act, but I didn’t find anything. Can you provide a link to this act ? Perhaps Iran has already broken the terms, as North Korea did with their agreements which they have signed.
Like it or not, Iran has been a leading humanitarian and weapon supplier to Muslim refugees and insurgents around the world. It is in a way the US of Muslim foreign aid. They were the main supporter to the Bosnians during their conflict with Serbia. NATO came in just when Bosnia turned the tide. That is a reason why US and other western nations tiptoe around Iran, even when they may have reasons to invade: invading Iran may trigger a true world-wide Crusades.
You have your opinion and only time will tell who knows more about this situation.
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There were no acts of terrorism in the early 80’s. It was a game of political chess. I am sure that you would agree that the suspected Taliban/Al-Qedia in Guantanamo Bay also constitute US terrorism, right?
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Pakistan
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It is buried in my paperwork (so I will find it tonight or tomorrow and post it). Plus, it is not well-known because the US did not want its citizens to know that they gave in after Iran foiled their attempt at rescuing the hostages.
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Educate yourself. This is not a cryptic piece of information. This is common knowledge.
I’m not sure exactly what you are asking a cite for. That Iran is a terrorist sponsoring nation ? The USA certainly thinks so, which is evidenced by this link: http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/pgtrpt/2000/2441.htm
Are you asking for a cite that the leaders are madmen ?
In that case, I refer to the link that I just gave. I do not believe it is unfair of me to characterize the leaders of one of the main terrorist supporting nations on the face of the earth as madmen.
If one takes offense to the term madmen, then perhaps one of these terms would be better suited to describe Iran.
You seem to be slightly misinformed on this issue.
Also, depending on the state department to tell you who supports terrorism is quite foolish considering that the USA state department openly supports the MEK which is a terrorist group (according to the US state department).
Iran is not just a sponsor of terror, it is one of the largest state sponsors of terrorism in the world. Aside from the hostage taking, Iran has been implicated in the Khobar towers bombing. Iran help create Hezbollah, and heavily supports it today. Iran also funds Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Iran has been implicated in bombings of Jewish cultural institutions in South America.
Iran was caught trying to smuggle a whole carge of weapons aboard the Karine A to Palestinian radicals.
Iran has been funding Kurdish separatist groups, and funding terrorist groups in Africa and elsewhere.
The notion that Pakistan would attack Israel for bombing an Iranian reactor is ridiculous. Aside from the fact that Pakistan has no reason to do so, the fact is that Israel is fully capable of defending itself, and of wiping the floor with Pakistan. Israel may have as many as 200 nuclear weapons.
Oh, and why is it acceptable for Israel to have Nukes and for other nations in the region to not have nukes? Simple. Because there is no risk that Israel will A) give its nukes to terrorists, or B) launch a nuclear strike against other countries. It is also politically stable, with a modern defense force that is in full control of those weapons. The same can not be said for Iran, Syria, North Korea, or Iraq, who simply could not be trusted with such weapons.
Huh. Nobody even went for the easy shot. You guys going blind?
One paragraph…
Next paragraph…
Can’t have it both ways 2thick. The membership of MEK are Iranian, you know. Every country, maybe excepting Andorra or Nauru, have produced at least a terrorist or two. To assert otherwise is just silly.
Further the “they do it, so why can’t Iran do it” argument for supporting terrorist groups like the PIJ ( I’m less sure of the extent of support for Hamas, who have a political rivalry with the PIJ and other sources of funding ), is neither terribly mature nor intelligent. I consider the U.S. position re: the MEK to be highly disingenuous myself. That doesn’t absolve Iran from supporting some true nasties. And being in the same bed as Saudi Arabia re:funding violent Palestinian groups, is no mark of high moral standing, either.
I also consider the “Axis of Evil” nonsense just that - it is overheated and unhelpful rhetoric. But again, that doesn’t absolve the Iranian government from it’s many, many unsavory vices. Quite frankly your revisionism in regards Iran is just as stupid as those who cast it as the very heart of MENA instability. It is neither a paragon of virtue, nor the nastiest country in history. It is instead an ademocratic theocracy, with powerful grass-roots democratic leanings, that is trying to find its feet between two ( dozen ) contradictory impulses. Unfortunately one of the least savory parts of Iran is currently running the show in the venues that count.
As far an attack on Iran goes, I sincerely hope it does not occur and I cannot predict what the result would be. One thing, I’m pretty certain of, though. Pakistan would not so much lift its little pinky figure to retaliate against Israel for Iran. They have absolutely no compelling interest in doing so.
Man, this place has been wacky the last couple of days - first the repugnant “let’s bomb Mecca” garbage, then december out the door, now this extreme Iranian revisionism. Must be the Mars passing so close.
