What will happen in Gaza now that Trump won?

Great Debates
21

…I think the evidence I’ve posted in the thread so far overwhelmingly supports my position in comparison to the evidence that you’ve provided, which appears to be…nothing.

Are you planning on asking everybody who states a position here in Great Debates to pre-emptively apologise? Or are you just singling out me?

And would pre-apologising (or not pre-emptively apologising) bring this tangent any closer to being about Trump?

Can we agree on a set of facts?

  • The IDF claim there are no civilians left in the north of Gaza. That it has been cleared of civilians.
  • Because there are no longer any civilians in the north, the IDF have said no aid (including food, water and medicine) will be allowed through to the north.
  • All of the humanitarian agencies are saying that this isn’t true. There are still hundreds of thousands of people, still trapped in the north.
  • The IDF have stated that Palestinians will not be allowed to return to their homes in the north.
  • The IDF are systematically destroying homes, schools, mosques, etc in the north, either by bombing, controlled demolition, bulldozer or burning them down.

Do you agree with those facts? I’ve provided cites for all of these things in this thread.

I think characterising me as “freaking out every time they move” in Gaza is unfair and not accurate, especially in relation to this particular thread. And it isn’t particularly helpful.

I actually should be “freaking out.” So should everybody else. Especially when what is happening on the ground, which has been described by the IASC as “imminent risk of dying from disease, famine and violence”, is being characterised by you as nothing more than “every time they move.”

But I’m not freaking out. Because I think this thread is important, and I very much want to keep this thread on topic, so if you want to accuse me of “freaking out because they are moving people around” I’m happy to discuss that further in another thread if you like.

Because the reality is there is nowhere for all of those people to go. Which is why, despite the claims from the IDF that all of the civilians have been “evacuated” from the north, many people have remained, risking dying from dying from disease, famine and violence.

This is what is happening under the Biden administration. And I think it will continue under Trump. The area is being cleansed of Palestinians. The IDF are claiming they’ve already cleansed the north.

22

I’m not interested in your gish gallop. You made a very specific claim, a few months ago: that Israel was going to starve hundreds of thousands to death. Of course, that never happened; there was no starvation in any kind of large number; so now you’re making up new claims - that Israel will remove all of the Palestinians from various parts of Gaza and annex them.

That, too, will not happen. And when that becomes clear, rather than admitting you were WRONG, you will be here, making new claims about the vile things Israel is going to do.

Yawn.

When you acknowledge that you were wrong about mass starvation in Gaza, and take a critical look at the way you consume media that led you to believe something so ridiculous would happen, then we can have a conversation about Israel’s current strategy and how I feel about it.

Until then, I have 0 interest.

23

…if I allegedly made a very specific claim, would you mind addressing that in the relevant thread?

Because I’m making very specific claims in this thread. That are related to the topic of this thread.

My claim in this thread is that the IDF have stated they have already removed all of the Palestinians from the north. And my source is the IDF.

Do you dispute this? Or do you think the IDF are lying?

And I think that under the Trump administration, they will annex northern Gaza. Its just my opinion based on the rhetoric coming from the Israeli government, the strategy they are undertaking, and analysis from people I follow. I could be wrong. But I make no apologies for stating my opinion here, especially as this thread calls for speculation on what will happen to Gaza with Trump in charge.

So I’m curious to hear what you think will happen. Now that the IDF are claiming that they have depopulated the north and won’t allow Palestinians to return to their homes, and they are now destroying those homes, what do you think will happen next? What will happen in Gaza now Trump is in charge?

Have the IDF cleared northern Gaza or not? Because if they are telling the truth, then the first part of this has already happened.

The IDF claims they have depopulated the north. Do you want to address that?

24

Yeah, and once again, they are sensationalist, ridiculous claims. The fact that you have a history of making such erroneous claims is very relevant when analyzing your latest gem.

They evacuated civilians from the north, for the second time, because they want to fight Hamas without killing the civilians Hamas likes to hide behind. When the war is over, those civilians will return to the North of Gaza.

That’s completely detached from reality.

The IDF will continue to fight Hamas in northern Gaza; the more civilians comply with the evacuation order, the fewer will die, which is a good thing; eventually Hamas will either surrender or completely fall apart, at which point the war will end and Gazans will return to all parts of Gaza.

The evacuated northern Gaza to prevent civilian casualties, just like they did previously, and are now fighting Hamas there.

I hope that civilians continue to evacuate so that civilian casualty rates are reduced. Once the war is over, they’ll go back to northern Gaza.

Now that I’ve addressed all parts of your gish gallop, are you going to address the fact that your hysteric predictions about the Israel Palestine conflict have historically been wrong wrong wrong? Or are we just gonna brush past that again?

25

…in this thread?

I’ve provided cites for my claims in this thread. And this thread invites speculation, and I’ve speculated.

This alleged “history” isn’t relevant to this thread. Feel free to take it to the pit.

Do you believe them?

Do you believe the claims that there a no civilians in the north any more? Which is why they are no longer allowing aid to the north any more?

So why are the hospitals under siege in defiance of the Geneva Convention and International Humanitarian Law? Why are they destroying Jabalya? Bombing and burning down homes?

Why did the IDF say that Palestinians will never be allowed to return to those homes?

From my cite earlier in the thread:

The title of the article is literally “Palestinians will not be allowed to return to homes in northern Gaza, says IDF.” From the article:

" In a media briefing on Tuesday night, the IDF Brig Gen Itzik Cohen told Israeli reporters that since troops had been forced to enter some areas twice, such as Jabaliya camp, “there is no intention of allowing the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return to their homes”."

Can you show me where he said “after the war they will be allowed to return?”

And if they are destroying their homes, you know they won’t have any homes to return to? Is Israel going to build them new homes?

You are entitled to your opinion.

But they never fully “evacuated” northern Gaza the first time. That never happened.

What’s changed this time is Israel are determined to depopulate the north this time. They are claiming they already have, even though every humanitarian agency on the ground have said it isn’t true. Even the AP article I quoted early outright said the IDF claims are untrue.

So civilians are still in the north of Gaza. And aid has been effectively cut of for a month, and now Israel have said no more aid will be allowed through.

You didn’t address what I said. The IDF claims they have depopulated the north. There are no civilians in the north so there is no need for aid to get sent there any more. Is that true or not?

This isn’t gish gallop. And you haven’t addressed the one thing I asked you to address. The IDF have claimed they have depopulated the north and because of that, they will no longer be allowing aid to go through to the north. Do you believe there are no civilians in the north?

I don’t think any of my predictions have come out wrong. Feel free to address any of these alleged predictions that I’ve made in the appropriate thread because I honestly don’t know exactly what you are talking about.

26

To be clear. A brigadier general is quoted as saying that and the government has claimed that he is being quoted out of context, that such is not the intent or policy.

I get that some think he just said the quiet part out loud. Still the IDF as an organization continues to deny that as a long term objective.

@Babale, I would guess you recognize that I am a Zionist. And I am not convinced that your portrayal of Hamas being completely responsible for the failure of completing a ceasefire agreement is completely accurate. My sense is that if Bibi wanted one accomplished terms could be found, the bodies of hostages and any left alive returned, and carnage ceased. It has not served his interests is all.

I am not convinced that general said the quiet part out loud but I am not sure he didn’t either. Especially with the recent dismissal.

Bibi has no interest in stopping the conflict. He has set no achievable goals for stopping it and still has no clear exit strategy articulated.

Only domestic pressure will achieve that. His reluctance to do anything that might have helped Harris was an impediment too. Is there any chance that domestic pressure will increase to the necessary degree?

27

I don’t believe YOU, since your own cite says:

“Getting closer to the complete evacuation” is very different than “there are no civilians left”.

I think getting civilians out of the areas where the heaviest fighting is taking place is a very good idea. There’s a reason why Hamas shoots at civilians who try to evacuate; they don’t want to lose their human shields. When they do, more terrorists die, fewer civilians do, and fewer Israeli soldiers die. Win win win.

Because those hospitals are being used by Hamas, in defiance of the Geneva Convention and International Humanitarian Law, which widely make provisions for the situation where an enemy group fights you from within a hospital, and makes fighting back not actually a war crime.

They didn’t say that Palestinians will never be allowed to return to those homes; that’s yet another erroneous statement.

They said that since this area had previously been evacuated, then cleared of Hamas, but now both civilians and Hamas have returned, leading to more fighting and more civilian casualties - this time the evacuation will continue until Hamas surrenders and the war is over.

The IDF didn’t say that they’d never be allowed to return.

Despite breathless proclamations that 60% of houses are “damaged or destroyed”, where “damaged” could mean broken windows, most of Gaza is not destroyed.

The parts that are will be rebuilt, likely by Egyptian companies who are already salivating at the prospect, but much of the money will come from Israel, yes.

Right, because Hamas shot at people trying to evacuate and useful idiots in the West fed the narrative that if the Palestinians leave Israel will take the land forever. Great job driving up civilian casualties there.

We really, really aren’t. But you can keep insisting we are until the war ends without taking Gaza, at which point you’ll seamlessly switch to a new narrative.

That’s because you’re presenting me with a pyramid of false statements built on a foundation of nonsense.

Per your own article, that’s not true.

The reason they are sending the aid in to the south and not the north is because they want civilians to get out of the north where the heavy fighting currently is. It’s really not that hard to figure out.

28

…I’ve cited two people, on the record, IDF Brig Gen Itzik Cohen and from the AP article Elad Goren, from COGAT, who both said the same thing. The spokesman from your article is unnamed, and doesn’t explain exactly how the statement was taken out of context. It doesn’t say much at all, to be honest.

Again: I’ll direct you to the joint statement from the IASC, where they state, unequivocally, “The entire Palestinian population in North Gaza is at imminent risk of dying from disease, famine and violence.” We’ve got footage of the complete destruction in the refugee camps. Of the burned out houses. There will be nowhere for people to return to.

29

When you say “ceasefire”, what are you referring to? A long term end to the fighting, or a temporary pause?

Israel has offered to trade hostages, or bodies of hostages, for a temporary ceasefire, dozens of times by now. Hamas is entirely at fault for this not coming to pass.

A longer term cessation of hostilities requires an agreement on whether or not Hamas will remain in charge of Gaza or not, and there are currently irreconcilable differences there that have nothing to do with Bibi. No Israeli prime minister is going to agree to completely end the fighting while Hamas remains the ruling power in Gaza. After Oct 7, that’s impossible.

30

They quite literally did not, though.

31

“War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it; and those who brought war into our Country deserve all the curses and maledictions a people can pour out.”
– Gen. William Tecumseh Sherman

It is not realistic to think that Israel could have responded to the Hamas attacks with essentially a giant civilian police raid. Hamas deliberately set up their own people as involuntary martyrs, an entire population of human shields. Israel simply got tired of being suckers. The fighting will end when Israel is satisfied that Gaza is no longer a staging area for invasions and massacres of Israelis.

32

(Too late to update previous.)

Heck, read Sherman’s entire letter on the subject– he could almost be talking about Israel and Gaza.

https://cwnc.omeka.chass.ncsu.edu/items/show/23

ETA:

The fighting will end when Israel is satisfied that Gaza is no longer a staging area for invasions and massacres of Israelis

Or more to the point, when Israel is satisfied that Gaza will not immediately resume being a staging area the moment the IDF withdraws.

.

33

…the people that are shooting Palestinians as they are evacuating are the IDF.

The people that are using human shields are the IDF:

“Every accusation is a confession” has gone beyond parody now.

https://www.savethechildren.net/news/gaza-massacre-reportedly-kills-50-children-underscoring-urgent-need-global-intervention-save

They aren’t “killing terrorists.” The reports coming out from the refugee camps are consistent: entire families are being wiped out.

How many terrorists do you think are in Gaza? And how many of them are children?

Entire bloodlines gone. Were everyone in the family terrorists?

From the AP:

Hospitals can lose their protection under certain circumstances.

But here’s the thing. You can’t keep those circumstances secret. That isn’t how International Humanitarian Law actually works.

There is no evidence that Hamas are fighting from the hospitals in the north. The warcrimes here are all on the IDF.

Then why are they systematically destroying those homes?

The damage to Gaza is significant and ongoing.

The estimated 41,000 dead people in Gaza so far were not killed by “Hamas shooting at people trying to evacuate.” There weren’t ever more than a handful of alleged reports of this happening early in the war. But its a bizarre thing to bring up now in the context of this particular thread.

This thread invites speculation. And that’s what I’m doing. I think the evidence overwhelming suggests that I’ll be proven correct. I hope to actually be proven wrong.

Nope.

Conceded.

Elad Goren claimed in the AP article that “areas like Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya” have no population left. Is that true?

There are existing humanitarian corridors. There are sick, injured and dying people in those hospitals and with the refugee camps being bombed daily, who else is going to treat the people who need treatment?

Under what legal theory is denying humanitarian resupply of the hospitals in the north in order to depopulate the north are you operating from? They are incapable of escaping. Requests to transfer patients are regularly being denied. And the sick and the injured keep coming. There is absolutely no reason to stop the aid going through.

34

You seem to be taking Netanyahu at his word. I find that interesting.

35

Not at all. I’m just familiar enough with Israel and the political situation there to know that it’s completely unrealistic.

Netanyahu’s base doesn’t want to annex Gaza. The base of his weakest coalition members does, but he’s not going to piss off the majority of his coalition with something they are so against to appease Ben Gvir and Smotrich, whose polling results Netanyahu is well aware of.

36

As at interested bystander and the OP, I believe it would make this thread more interesting if you responded to the sites Banquet Bear is offering with sites of your own instead of a bunch of snide comments (“sensationalist”, “gish gallop”, “yawn”, etc…). It seems clear that you and Banquet_Bear have a history, but I would prefer you two get a room and work it out rather than you shit all over this thread. They have brought a bunch of evidence from a variety of news sources that backs up what they are saying and you have brought nothing but your opinion, which does not seem to have any obvious foundation, and the previously mentioned attitude.

I am an American that has been actively avoiding the tragedy that has been unfolding in Israel and Gaza. I have been avoiding it because it pisses me off for all sorts of reasons. This thread is one of the few times I have actively sought out information (I know, the dope is barely a step above social media, but at least they have been fighting ignorance since 1973), and the only one bringing information to this thread is Banquet_Bear. So put up or shut up.

37

Is there starvation in Gaza Babale?

(starvation in gaza - Google Search)

I don’t know, but there sure seem to be a lot of sites that claim there is.

38

There are a lot of sites that have been claiming that for a year now. How many people have starved to death in Gaza?

39

Good point. Biden pushed through two peace deals through the UN, Hamas rejected both.

I fell sorry for those people- Netanyahu doesnt care about them, nor does Hamas.

I think Israel will be getting some of the aid we are currently sending to Ukraine.

This is pretty well thought out.

Are any left alive? Remember, during one failed negotiation, Hamas offer was to send back the bodies first, counting them as hostages returned in exchange for Hamas prisoners.

Biden brokered two cease fire deals thru the UN, at least one of which was accepted by Israel. Hamas rejected both. So, before we blame the Biden administration, maybe we need to ask why Hamas doesnt care about its own people.

Right. Biden tried. He even built a floating dock to get aid in and approved billions in Aid for the palestinians in Gaza. We even had a thread about what Biden could do-legally- to do more in Gaza- and the answer was “Nothing”- legally. The President cant legally refused to send aid that congress has budgeted- yes, he can slow it down a bit, but that’s it.

Yep. Now, if Congress approved, the USA could cut off all aid Military Aid to Israel until they agreed. But not the White House by itself.

Well, at least accept one of the two UN cease fire deals.

Those facts dont really concern this thread. We all agree that the situation for the people of Gaza is really bad. Now, whose fault is that? Biden? Nope, he has done everything he legally can. Netanyahu? Certainly, he is a bigoted power-mad crook. Hamas? They have refused even UN brokered ceasefire deals. So, Yeah, we can put some of the blame on Bibi, but also we have to blame Hamas. No ceasefire deal can go thru as long as Hamas rejects them all.

Her cites are mostly how bad it is. We agree it is bad. The question here is how much worse will it get under trump as opposed to Biden?

It isnt to rehash the arguments on how bad Israel is treating the Gazans. Or to count how many have starved. Bad stuff will continue in Gaza as long as Hamas refuses any and all ceasefire deals and OR long as Netanyahu is in power. Hamas could get a ceasefire in a day.

40

I don’t know, but I would bet it is more than 0. Do you know?

According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), over 130,000 people are currently experiencing Phase 5 (Catastrophe) levels of food insecurity. This is defined as “Households in this phase are experiencing an extreme lack of food, leading to alarmingly high acute malnutrition rates among children under five, significant excess mortality and an imminent risk of starvation.” Unfortunately, they do not define what “significant excess mortality” means, so it is hard for me to come up with an estimate. Still with more than 86% of the population of Gaza ranked at stage 3 or higher, it seems likely there have been some deaths.

Here is how they currently rate the region: