What will happen to Snowden?

Great Debates
41

But they shouldn’t be. China has thousands of extremely smart computer scientists that we’re almost sure have been hacking into American corporate systems for years and waging low level information warfare against government system under direction of the military.

We are most likely doing similar stuff to them. And they’ve not really been able to stop us nor have we been able to stop them. I’m not an IT person but the fact is, it is very difficult to completely harden any connected system. And the NSA eavesdropping basically uses compliant technology companies to monitor private communications over their networks. There isn’t actually any real protection from that other than not using those networks.

For States, I imagine Russia and China do not conduct government business that demands secrecy over Facebook PMs or gmail. The only people this would affect are international terrorists that do use such systems, but they have to use something. They don’t have an internal network for communications like a State player does. So maybe after this none of them use anything from Google/Facebook/Microsoft/Apple/etc, that is probably the real harm, but I wager a lot of them still end up using those systems. The smart terrorists we’ve known for years send PGP encrypted emails that, at least as far as I know, can’t be broken by any form of decryption techniques. So the terrorists being foiled based on their Facebook PMs are probably the “lower tier” idiot terrorists like the Tsarnaevs and the Fort Hood shooter, and given the way such individuals behave I’m going to guess they’ll still use some easily monitored system for communicating.

42

Well, in truth it shows a few things a lot of people in the know have known for a long time. Namely that the rigorous security clearance process that is a nightmarish headache to go through just creates a class of highly employable contractors. You get security clearance while in the military and you can get a job making substantially more than you’d make without one.

There are thousands of jobs that require a security clearance to get hired, but it’s impossible to get a security clearance if you aren’t with the military or an intelligence agency or work a job that requires one. The chicken-and-egg situation is resolved with lots of ex-government guys taking those jobs. When they apply and indicate they have a security clearance then whenever their new employer has to renew the clearance they can be quite certain the individual will pass, since they had held a clearance previously.

Snowden’s career high income was $200,000/yr and he was making $122,000 at Booz. As a system administrator, look at various websites like salary.com or the BLS-sys admins make decent incomes but those numbers put him basically at the top of the top 1% of people with that job title. That’s all because of the stupid security clearance job market we’ve created. It’s stupid because as has been demonstrated, all that painful security clearance stuff ultimately doesn’t mean a lot.

We have so many jobs now that require a security clearance that we couldn’t easily fill them with purely government employees, so we vastly overpay companies like Booz Allen to fill them for us. (It’s easier to overpay a contractor than it is to hire a permanent Federal employee.) Even if we did fill them with all government employees (substantially ballooning the size of the Federal workforce–which isn’t intrinsically bad since all those contractors are really just Federal employees who aren’t on a Federal payroll) I doubt very seriously we’d be able to do any better job performing security clearance background checks on them. For one, we don’t even do all of those ourselves, there are a few big firms that handle most of those background checks (so we’ve outsource a lot of the security clearance process.) The firm Booz Allen used is one of the ones regularly used by the Feds.

Some audits and investigations have found some of these firms we’ve outsourced security clearances to have employees who either through laziness or a push to get as many clearances done as fast as possible, will falsify details of their work. Claim they went to interview a reference they never did, claim they traveled to a county to do a court house records search they never did etc. So it’s unlikely these companies do a very good job.

43 
  The point is that Snowden may have information about NSA operations that other intelligences services don't know about perhaps using new technologies. I don't imagine Snowden would have detailed information about these operations but even the knowledge of their existence could be useful. For example say the NSA has broken some Chinese encryption technology that they believe is secure, knowledge of that fact alone would be useful even if Snowden doesn't have the details. The NSA has spent so much money over the decades that they are probably years or even decades ahead of any other intelligence agency. Just knowing what they are up to is valuable.
44

The plot thickens. The Bolivian President was forced to land in Vienna because France, Italy, Spain and Portugal did not allow him to fly through their airspace. The suspicion is that the US put pressure on them because they thought Snowden was on the plane. Latin American countries are furious.

Meanwhile, like I suspected, Snowden seems to be stuck in a limbo, still perhaps at Moscow Airport. The Russians won’t give him up but they don’t seem to want to give him asylum either and neither does anyone else apparently. If that story about the Bolivian President is true I am guessing the US government is putting pressure on international airlines not to let Snowden board a plane.

45

I don’t think Snowden has much value to any other governments, he wasn’t some highly placed official, he simply had access to a bunch of files which I assume have been copied by both the Chinese and the Russians. Mostly he’s just a pain in the ass for whatever country he is in, his only value is to piss off the US, so maybe Venezuala or Cuba would want him, but I suspect he’ll eventually end up back in the US.

46

I suspect he spends a long time in the Moscow airport and then eventually some country is willing to offer him asylum and gives him papers that allow him to leave the Russian airport and travel to his destination country.

I think President Obama is willing to push some to try and get Snowden back, which is why he’s in limbo right now. But once a country gets up the nerve to extend formal asylum or at least give him protective travel documents I don’t see Obama doing anything extraordinary to prevent it. Ostensibly there are really heavy handed ways he could put pressure on the asylum granting country, or even entities like foreign airlines or etc, but I just don’t think Obama will go all that far down that route. I don’t think he should, either. Snowden’s already done his thing, I don’t think he’s a very reputable figure and I think he’s materially different from more honorable “leakers” like Ellsberg, but he’s not worth making a big deal and international brouhaha over.

47

So is he hunkered down in a row of chairs somewhere? He sleeps there with his hand across his laptop, and eats at the food mall? I can’t quite picture this scenario.

48

I’m not sure of the full details, but I think it’s pretty standard that when you land at an international airport after travelling from a different country, you’re not considered to have entered the country the airport is in until you’ve gone through customs etc.

49

IMO, he may be offered asylum in Bolivia or Venezuala but he won’t be able to make it to the country in question. Even if he is given refugee documents, after what has just happened with Morales plane, no airline will agree to carry him. And as we just saw, even if he gets a private plane lined up, airspace will be closed to him over europe. He doesn’t really have the option to turn around and fly the other way round the world to south america either. The commercial flight options to reach south america from Asia require changing planes in Japan or the US. Getting a private jet to fly from Moscow to south america via the pacific seems like his only option, if he could find countries to let him refuel, AND if he can find a billionaire to pay for it. Not likely.

Snowdon’s realistic options now seem to be:

a) re-applying for asylum in Russia, begging them for asylum and promising to keep his mouth shut. (even if Russia said yet, it doesn’t seem like Snowdon could actually stick to this from what we’ve seen).
b) get smuggled into the embassy of Venezuela or Bolivia or Ecuador in Moscow and live there for as long as they’ll take him.
c) staying where is now (presumably in back rooms of the transit area out of public view) for as long as he can in order for a few more leaks to come out until Russia kicks him out. Get on a plane to the US to face the charges.

50

d) The U.S. decides to pay whatever price Putin is asking, so that American bounty hunters can fly into Sheremetyevo on a private plane, knock Snowden on the head, and fly him back to 'Murica.

51

I think you are right that the US will get him, but Russia has said they won’t hand him over and Putin won’t be keen to be seen to be bowing down to US requests.

There may be some back room deal we never know about with Putin, but officially, rather than handing him over, my guess is they’ll eventually just give him a time limit to leave the transit zone and the only option he’ll have is on a plane direct to the US.

EDIT to add: atlantic wire just posted an article claiming that a Gulfstream 550 could reach Venezuela from Moscow without going through any other countries air space by flying north around norway then over the atlantic. Even allowing for the enormous cost of this, would any pilot actually agree to fly this route? would it be within ETOPS regulations?

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2013/07/heres-how-snowden-could-leave-moscow-and-exactly-where-he-could-go/66833/

52

There’s risks in doing the private plane route too, I personally don’t think we’d do anything but stopping a private plane with fighters over international airspace is a lot different than trying to force down a commercial airliner. The President has specifically said he’s not scrambling any jets for Snowden, but realistically if I was Snowden my fear with a private plane would be that it costs the President a lot less international political capital for him to send jets on a “police action to apprehend a fugitive” in a private jet flying in international airspace than it would to do the same for a commercial flight (really doing it to a commercial flight is patently unthinkable.)

As for him getting smuggled out of the airport, I doubt that can happen. He hasn’t gone through Russian customs or anything and I don’t think it’s all that easy to sneak into the country. Not saying it’s impossible, but Russia isn’t exactly a place that is lackadaisical about watching people. I suspect FSB people have eyes on Snowden at all times at this point.

If I had to guess the setup Snowden has going it’s probably one of those executive style “travel lounges” or something in the terminal.

If I was him I’d probably wait a few weeks to see if anything materializes in South America that will give me legal papers to fly out (and see if any airlines will let me board), if not I’d throw myself at the mercy of Russia who I don’t believe would hand Snowden over directly. But I do think they’d kick him out of the country of something if he continued to make noise against the United States and then who knows what happens.

My goal once/if I got Russian asylum would be working on a way to eventually get to a country where I felt a little safer. Because honestly in Russia you’re subject to the political whims of Putin or whoever is in power, I’d want to be in a country that is a lot less autocratic and has strong rule of law and also a court system that isn’t circumvented by the political branch.

53

Russia is getting impatient:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/04/us-usa-security-russia-idUSBRE9630IV20130704

Even if he is granted asylum within the next few days, he can’t reach south america, overflight permission of EU countries won’t be granted. One possibility is that to save face Russia puts him on a plane back to his point of origin - Hong Kong.

Hong Kong might then refuse to admit him since he has no valid passport and put him on a plane back to the US.

In this scenario both Russia and China get to save face by the fact that they haven’t directly handed him over, but are instead just following procedures on a passenger with improper documentation for travel.

54

It seems like to me WikiLeaks did a disservice to Snowden here, he traveled to Russia en route to Ecuador solely on their advice. His lawyer in Hong Kong advised he stay there to fight the charges.

Hong Kong has its own independent judicial system, with well entrenched rule of law. Beijing is very concerned with making sure it doesn’t appear heavy handed in any of its dealings with the SAR. If Snowden had stayed in Hong Kong he would have had a long legal fight–that he very well may have won in the independent Hong Kong courts. If he had won, he most likely could have remained in Hong Kong for the rest of his days. That seems a much better path than the one he was trying when the U.S. put a freeze on his travel in transit to Ecuador.

What I don’t understand is why he didn’t just go to Iceland on day one. Let’s compare the two options he actually availed himself of:

  1. Hong Kong

Pros: Independent legal system, lots of lawyers willing to take his case who thought he had a good shot of prevailing, high standard of living and generally positive civil rights climate.

Cons: Technically Beijing can overrule the SAR when it relates to the “Foreign Policy interests of the PRC.” That would stand to be a somewhat scary “Sword of Damocles” over Snowden’s head the whole time he was in Hong Kong regardless of anything else.

  1. Russia en route to Ecuardor

Pros: Russia has no extradition treaty with the United States and a President that loves to spite the U.S. His original itinerary appears to have involved Cuba and Venezuela as well. Cuba does not have good relations with the United States, and Venezuela’s President just like his predecessor loves to be a thorn in the side of America. Finally, Ecuador has shown itself willing to grant asylum to controversial people in the past.

Cons: This is a very long flight path that involves lots of steps along the way and hitting lots of airspace belonging to other countries. It makes (and did make) it a much more complicated plan. While each country involved as stops on the flight love spiting the United States, all of them are to some degree unfree (including Ecuador which makes many of the comments of their President hilariously hypocritical.) What that means is that any of the autocratic-leaning leaders of any of those countries could probably decide to screw Snowden over at a whim if the United States pressures them enough or makes them promises that is more valuable to them than whatever joy they get out of spiting the United States.

Russia is particularly dangerous. While Putin again, loves to spite the United States, the U.S. and Russia have worked together a lot in the past in transferring high name recognition criminals. Further, Putin is former KGB and basically does not like whistleblowers or leakers. Putin’s support for Snowden would be purely realpolitik as he has absolutely no ideological sympathy for him, and in fact is probably ideologically antagonistic toward Snowden’s actions. Which meant all the U.S. had to do is come up with either a significant enough threat or a significant enough bribe to turn Putin’s ear. This may have happened.

Alternative Options:

  1. Iceland Direct. I think this was his best possible option, and I think it was basically poor planning that lead him to doing this. See, at the end of his employment at Booz Allen he took a leave of absence, when the leave of absence expired he requested more time off. When that expired, he just disappeared, not calling in or explaining where he was. A few days into that, apparently in a state of panic, he flees to Hong Kong because it was the best option in terms of flights out of Hawaii.

When you have a high level security clearance and you “disappear” the intelligence agencies are notified, and they start to look for you “eventually.” In Snowden’s case they showed up at his house a few days after his disappearance and found he was gone, and then shortly afterward is when his leaked information started appearing in newspapers.

But Snowden had weeks where he was on a leave of absence in which he would not have had to fear making a quick exit, he should have planned for this. If he was afraid that maybe they monitored flight itineraries he should have taken a flight from Hawaii to one of his two parents on the East Coast. Something that would raise no suspicions.

Snowden’s father lives in the NoVa area near D.C., I just checked and you can book a flight on Iceland Air direct from Dulles to Reykjavik for about $900 and be there in 5 hours. It’s unlikely any intelligence agency would have had any clue Snowden was leaving by the time he landed in Iceland and he would most likely be safe.

  1. Other European countries

All of the countries in Western Europe at least have strong rule of law and protection for people who may face political persecution. Most of them have extradition treaties with the United States that are exercised regularly. However, all of them would require lengthy court processes to extradite Snowden, I believe he would be able to appeal any rulings to the European Court of Human Rights as long as it was one of the European countries signatory to that body (which I believe is all of Europe aside from like Vatican City and Belarus which are non-starter destinations anyway.)

I probably wouldn’t go to the UK which cooperates far too closely with the United States, but Austria for example might have its hands tied legally about extraditing Snowden. No idea where the Austrian government would stand, but its courts would potentially rule in Snowden’s favor. Italy and Spain are also places that traditionally haven’t always been the easiest to extradite people from. France and Germany again are too close to the United States. (France despite popular misconceptions has an extradition treaty with the United States, France doesn’t extradite French nationals but instead tries them in French courts for crimes committed abroad, but it has no problem extraditing foreign nationals under treaty provisions.)

55

When I first heard he went to Hong Kong I thought it was a shrewd choice. It has a high standard of living with a relatively free political system. At the same time it’s ultimately controlled by China which is one of the few countries able and willing to resist US pressure. Arguably that’s the best of both worlds from Snowden’s point of view and a combination unique to Hong Kong. Most rich democracies would be much more likely to hand him back to the US.

One factor that may be relevant is money: his savings would eventually run out and he would need a job. Perhaps he figured that once the publicity died down he would find it easier to get a good job in Hong Kong than say Iceland. Not to mention a more pleasant climate. He probably figured wherever he went, he might be stuck there for a very long time perhaps life. I think most people would prefer living for life in Hong Kong rather than Iceland.

56

Can’t he fly the other way; across Russia and then the Pacific to South America?

57

If this articlein the Daily Mail is accurate, Iceland wasn’t necessarily a safe haven either:

58

This won’t happen.

This won’t happen either. Philby was a KGB colonel with a long standing retirement plan. Snowden is just some guy. He doesn’t know much the Russians don’t already know, and once they drain his laptops he is of no use to them. They can temporarily embarrass the US, but he will be a pain in Russia’s ass and they will want to get rid of him.

He won’t get the death penalty. If Ames and Hansen didn’t get it a pissant like Snowden certainly won’t.

Not enough rolleyes in the world.

Yes, this is exactly right. He will eventually be tried and given a long prison sentence, which he richly deserves, though their is a small possibility a country or two might take him. I wonder how he would like North Korean cuisine?

59

Fact correction to above post: Philby was not in fact a KGB colonel, that was just something his handlers told him.

60

Iceland rejects Snowden’s request for citizenship

He tried the Bobby Fischer route, but the Parliament adjourned for summer recess without voting on it, which means no action until autumn at least.

The Globe and Mail article makes the same point as the Daily Mail article mentioned earlier in the thread: that the newly elected right-of-centre Icelandic government may not be as interested in being a cyber-haven and irritating the US.