[QUOTE=Martin Hyde]
It seems like to me WikiLeaks did a disservice to Snowden here, he traveled to Russia en route to Ecuador solely on their advice. His lawyer in Hong Kong advised he stay there to fight the charges.
[/QUOTE]
A secretive, anti-government website led by a paranoid in hiding for a year may not be the best source for geo-political advice? Who’d a thunk it? 
Also, Bobby Fischer had a lot of goodwill in Iceland, because (if my understanding is correct) a lot of people there thought that he’d brought a lot of positive attention and visibility to the country when he played Boris Spassky there in 1972.
Another thing Snowden may need to consider, even if he gets to Ecuador, is the while El Presidente got reelected with 57% of the vote this year, if Correa alienates the trading partner for 47% of Ecuador’s exports he may not do so well in 2017 and the successor may not want to continue paying the price for Snowden’s company.
I think for whatever reason Correa isn’t that interested in going any further than this. They repudiated some favored trading privileges with the United States to the tune of $28m a year or something, but that is still small compared to their total trade with the United States. I think Correa did that because when he heard members of the U.S. Congress threatening to use those as leverage he felt “honor” or something demand he not be bullied with threats like that.
But I think when he was faced with even more of his trade with America being in jeopardy, he changed his mind. It appears that when the London Embassy issued Snowden travel documents there was consensus in Ecuador to let him have asylum, and then it looks like it was reversed from the top. That suggests for whatever reason, Ecuador has decided not to help Snowden. They could get him relatively easy passage to Ecuador if they wanted, they could issue asylum and then charter a plane for him. But it looks like they aren’t going to do that.
I’ve heard on some of the news sites that President Obama and the administration officials who have been doing the pressuring over Snowden have been presenting it to a lot of countries as, “You know, the President would hate to do it but the pressure from Congress is so serious about this that who knows what might happen to trade between our countries if you give asylum to Snowden.” Apparently he’s using his the famed discord between the branches as geopolitical leverage.
Also in reference to one of Lantern’s posts, it would make no sense to travel to Ecuador via the Pacific. Instead, The Atlantic published a flight path that would avoid flying over any foreign airspace that leaves from Russia and is doable with some of the bigger business/personal class jets (Gulfstream V I believe the article specifically mentioned.) Basically he’d head north out of Moscow til he was far enough North that he could fly west toward Iceland without ever flying over Finnish or Norwegian airspace, then he cuts down south through the Atlantic after going west far enough to avoid Great Britain and Ireland and then he can thread the needle through various airspaces in the Caribbean and arrive in Ecuador.
But it may even be better to go somewhere like Cuba, Ecuador seems frosty on the idea of asylum even if Snowden gets himself there.
Glenn Greenwald just tweeted that Snowden has been granted asylum in Venezuela.
I was thinking of commercial flights. Moscow to Vladivostok and then to Quito for example. Venezuela is more complicated since it lies on the Atlantic and a flight from Vladivostok would have to fly through some country’s air space.
There are no commercial flights from Vladivostok to South America . There is very few flights from anywhere to Asia direct to South America , most require a change of planes in the US
I had heard earlier in this whole thing that a businessman somewhere had offered him the use of a chartered plane. I think very few if any commercial airlines will want Snowden on their planes, so I think now that he has formal offers of asylum from two countries his best option would be to get someone to provide him with a charter direct flight to one of those two countries. I would probably personally prefer Nicaragua, Venezuela is like the murder capital of the world and with all of their economy-killing gasoline subsidies and impending societal unrest when the failed Bolivarian Revolution style economic programs collapse I don’t know that Venezuela is a place I’d want to be long term.
People who remember the 80s and earlier probably have a negative view of Nicaragua, but it’s been politically and economically stable for a long time now and I think is across the board just a nicer place to live in exile.
Hong Kong would have probably been the best place for a guy like Snowden, who is a big tech geek and who might need to work again, because he’ll have to adjust his tech expectations almost anywhere outside of the OECD. He most likely can get a book ghost written though, and probably will get some donations from people.
You are right. I had done a quick search but I didn’t look into the details of the flights.
I hope Snowden accept the offer from Venezuela.He will be safe there.
I hope one of those countries has the capablity to refuel in mid-air …
#half in jest
Snowden hasn’t revealed anything that every intelligence agency on Earth knows.
So its not a problem.
If he has actually given information away to Terrorists of any denomination, then he would rapidly depart from the scene.
And if in the area of our "Sworn "enemies, they would ensure that it wasn’t a problem .
Its an embarresment, potentially, but not really .
With governments, espionage on both sides can prevent war.
Terrorists even Terrorists fighting our rivals, are our enemys.
And vice versa.
Even in Europe, even at at home.
So Snowden has changed his mind and asked Russia for temporary Asylum until he can get to South America. Putin still says he has to stop leaking.
Meanwhile, Greenwald says he’ll still keep publishing stories based on Snowden’s documents already handed over.
Oops…
Standard form: I really want to help you but this other guy just won’t…
Russia has an awfully long border.
Aviation folks are saying that Snowden’s best chance is to fly commercial, because of international “Free to Fly” treaties that let commercial flights overfly without seeking permission, unlike purely private flights or government planes: Experts advise Snowden to fly commercial.
Snowden strikes me as incredibly naïve. In his recent interview in the Russian airport, he seems outraged that the US government is actually treating him as a criminal and trying to get him back to the US for trial:
Of course the US government wants to make an example of him. That comes as a surprise?
I think this article says it best.
Of course not. He’s just stating perspective for the over-indoctrinated and hard of learning.
What’s he supposed to do, stay silent and let the ‘traitor/spy’’ narrative dominate the landscape uncontested?
What will happen to Snowden? Ultimately, the same thing that happened to Philp Agee- he’ll live a long, boring, useless life in some third world country, he’ll continue putting out “secrets” on web sites that nobody reads, and then he’ll die completely forgotten.