What will happen to the democratic Kurds?

UDS, its fair to say that for many people the war would have a moral component. To free Iraq from Saddam, release the oil revenue to the people of Iraq, Have elections with two or more candidates. To stop the torture, the disappearances, the just really sick stuff that you can’t believe is happening in an advanced nation like Iraq. All of that, to me, is a moral argument for ending Saddam’s regime. Along with, finally, putting an end to the disarmament two step. To enforce the long-standing agreement with Saddam to disarm. To free up all that money - spent on arming Iraq unnecessarily, the palaces, the triple redundant security for a crazed tyrant - for the Iraqi people also.

But, what about the supposed plan for the Special Republican Guard to take fortified positions in Baghdad and use chemical and biological weapons to maximize overall casualties? I’m not sure how many people that might kill. Clearly, there are strong practical and moral arguments against starting a war with a madman, as tempting as the arguments on the other side are. If the war plan depends on the other side surrendering, or, maybe millions of civilians might die in a chemical and biological holocaust - time to give peace (keep sending in the troops) at least a temporary chance.

Also, if Bush miscalculates the post-war and the regional situation decays into general chaos, violence, or increased tyrrany, the whole point of going will be subverted. So, what happens in Iraq is a test for anything Bush wants to do for the remainder of his presidency.

Whether President Bush understands all the moral and geopolitical dimensions of this potential war the way we want him to UDS, I admit, is an open question. The Turkish deal, if true, makes me wonder what Bush is thinking. Screw the Kurds, again? I’d literally be sick. But, the moral imperative to rid the world of the most horrible dictators exists whether the president believes it or not.

Back to the democratic Kurds. Yes, this is another moral litmus test for GWB. If he has any diplomatic skills, he can get an agreement to permit the status quo on the ground to continue without any precipitous military intervention by Turkey necessary. We can handle anything on the ground, obviously. We don’t need the Turks going in for “security?” reasons. Is that what the article said? How thin is that? Any evidence, at all, that the democratic Kurds have any real offensive designs on Turkey? If Iraq (the regime) hits Turkey, cynics would say, that is what we’ve been waiting for. Just stand back and watch what happens then. I think the six or so carrier groups in the area alone would make any Iraqi (or whoever for purposes of this topic) assault anywhere short-lived.

Some background info on treatment of Kurds in Turkey:

http://www.hrw.org/backgrounder/eca/turkey/kurd.htm

It’s a bit dated, and I don’t know how much things have changed (plus, I’m sure there are those who think Human Rights Watch is overly biased, but I’m not one of them). Anyway, it provides a bit of the Turkish government perspective and some wider regional contrext.

I’m sorry, the Turks want to move troops for “humanitarian” reasons. Well, that settles that. I tend to think international relief agencies, US or UN and US troops, and Northern Iraqi Kurds can handle that.

Eva Luna, care to speculate? I’m not trying to argue for war on this thread, unless I’m convinced it would allow the little flower of democracy (for London_Calling) to grow and bloom for the Kurds. I’m not sold on that one yet.

Well, the hawks on this thread sure probably don’t want me to speculate, but let’s just say that I don’t think GWB has the best interests of the majority of the Iraqi people at the center of his military decisionmaking, and so I think that is even less the case for the Kurds.

Frankly, I don’t think that GWB knows anything about the Kurds beyond what his advisors have included in briefings over the past few months. IMHO a general weak spot in U.S. foreign policy has historically been creative, outside-the-box ways to address issues involving ethnic/religious minorities on the Eurasian landmass, including the Middle East, but that’s my bias as a person with an advanced area studies degree (not M.E. studies, just to be clear, but one which focused on issues of ethnicity).

I think if the current administration thinks the Iraqi Kurds will be able to help them with the current Iraq situation, and with U.S. influence on of the region, more than the Turkish government will, then they’ll take Kurdish wants/needs into account. Since I think that will happen slightly after Hell freezes over, I think the Kurds are likely to be left out in the cold again, just like they were in ’91.

I’ll have to give it some more thought; it’s definitely not my area of expertise.