John Oliver agrees that Brexit is a very bad idea, but I don’t know about the sudden 10% plunge in the economy. Will the loss be that large even if compounded for a decade?
The U.S.A. was legally required to hold an election in November 2016 and then required to give the White House keys to Donald Trump, with no recourse for four years. Britain, OTOH, scored an “own-goal” and continues to score “own-goals” every day that it delays on rescinding the A50 notice. Even if they rescinded today, economic damage has already been suffered.
The Brexit referendum should have required a super-majority. Or, at a minimum, a majority in a majority of the U.K. countries — 62% of Scotland voted to Remain.
If I were a Scottish politician I think Brexit would have me joining the Separatists now and calling for a rebuild of Hadrian’s Wall! (“England will pay for it!”)
Hadrian’s Wall is entirely in England. If you want one on the border, you’re on your own. But we might consider not taking back Berwick if Scotland takes Northern Ireland off our hands (that was all James VI’s fault anyway).
Comment for the purposes of comic hyperbole only. No warranty as to historical completeness is implied. Other fantastical ideas are available. If you have been affected by any of the issues raised in this post, find your own helpline.
So what happens with a new election? You have a Remain group offering lots of candidates. Since a higher proportion of Labour than Tory is Remain the Labour Party is hurt more resulting in the Tories winning with a clear majority–and doing their hard Brexit.
I think the defection hurts Labour more than the Tories but it hurts them both because it makes it harder to form a government. And if there is a true Remain shift then a new election could only help Labour if they run pro-Remain candidates.
What I am not sure of is the effect on the leadership of both parties of the defection. My guess is that it helps Tory leadership by casting off dead weight and hurts Labour leadership because there might be a temptation to enforce Remain discipline in return for an alliance with the IG and that might not go well, but really I don’t have a clue.
I do not understand either the intricacies or ramifications of Brexit.
All that is really understandable to the common man is that the UK political system has become a laughingstock of the world, trumping even their neighbors across the pond.
Regardless of the outcome, the UK has lost a lot of respect from the world.
Oh, I’m quite sure Mr Trump will soon enough Trump the stakes for silliness. He is quite good at that, you know.
But with the UK and Brexit, it seems as if they had done a careful study of the matter beforehand:
“Directive:How can we BEST bungle the Brexit issue and make fools of ourselves? With careful optimisation of humiliation and maximum foot-in-mouth factor? Please focus on best methods to undermine public confidence in the UK political process.”
How does that make any sense? The Conservative manifesto declaring that a referendum would be pursued was published on 14 April 2015. It contained this language:
The referendum bill was then introduced on 28 May 2015 and passed in the House of Commons on 07 September 2015. The referendum itself was called on 20 February 2016 and the vote took place on 23 June 2016.
So whichever way you look at it, there was over a year’s discussion on the referendum. I can ensure you that lots of discussion was going on throughout that year, not just in the campaign period. Someone would have had to have their head stuck in the sand to be unaware of the debate. Why would someone who was wilfully ignorant three years ago suddenly become enlightened now?
But hey, whether you’re within or without the UK, feel free to join the grassroots campaign for a second referendum. Get a clear majority of the UK demanding a vote and I for one will concede to the demand. You better work hard though – that campaign’s been going absolutely nowhere. Or maybe you can contact whichever members of Parliament you have access to and enlighten them? Good luck with that lot.
That discussion about holding the Referendum was within the Conservative Party and its significance was understated. It was, after all, legally only advice to the government. That was then transformed after the vote into a powerful political imperative.
I am sure if it was anticipated that that it would be proclaimed with gusto as ‘unarguable democratic will of the people’ and effectively hand the driving wheel over the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party. Cameron should have taken care to ensure that the vote required at least a supermajority or for it to require a confirmation vote on the deal negotiated.
The Europsceptics have undermined every Conservative leader since Thatcher and Cameron was vulnerable with a small majority and UKIP trying to lure Conservative MPs to their cause. The internal politics of the Conservative party drove the Referendum. Was the EU high on the voters wish list of issues? The public cared little for questions about Europe. It was way down the list of concerns. Voters were more interested in the Education, NHS, the economy, environment…The usual things that have been eclipsed by the never ending Brexit debate.
Most voters don’t even now realise the Mays Deal or no Deal is not the end of Brexit, it is only the terms under which the UK will leave. They are unprepared for what follows, which will be many years of bargaining with the EU over the terms of trade. To say nothing of desperately trying to negotiate with forty or so countries around the world trade deals to replace those handled by the EU.
There is a good deal of exhaustion about the endless coverage about Brexit in the news in the UK. The political journalists love it and I am sure the politicians enjoy the drama. Well, at least the will until they actually have to pick up the monumental workload that will be required to keep the economy stable once this dam breaks.
I can see this Referendum device being used to great effect by Corbyn, if he ever gets elected. Posing a series of questions that invite voters to endorse a radical programme of socialist reforms in the UK would enable that mantra ‘the democratic will of the people’ to be used to justify anything. A Labour Corbyn government could easily be as damaging to the economy as Brexit. He and is faction are very far to the Left of British politics, it will be back to the radicalism of the 1970s. The political choices in the UK seem to be between two parties that are both dangerously misguided and can do great damage to the countries prospects. They are now so divided internally they are both beginning to fall apart.
Referendums in the UK have been used as a political device in a wholly irresponsible manner. The only one where there was actually a constructive national debate was the Scottish referendum. Other countries do them properly.
The next date when there will be some development is 26 February when May is due to report back with the result of any talks with the EU regarding the Backstop issue. So high noon will be 27th February and a ‘meaningful vote’ on the Withdrawal Agreement plus any changes she has been able to agree. The EU haven’t budged from their position that the deal is set in stone.
Not much hope of her winning that vote unless she pulls something dramatic out of the bag and she does not really have any more cards to play.
The BBC has drawn a little flow chart of the options that might follow.
I think she will lose the vote and then it is a case of how to avoid a No Deal and that will inevitably require a delay to the 29 March deadline. Her party may split further. So might Labour.
I suspect the delay will be about a year, a lot of elections are due in the EU in the coming months.
At least with the indyref those who advocated for a change to the status quo produced a huge White Paper detailing the size of the task ahead. It’s a flawed document in many ways, but at least it was a very good and comprehensive attempt at a scoping exercise, and a lot of thought - years worth, in fact - went into it. The Brexiteers on the other hand - despite decades to have a think about it - produced fucking hee-haw.
So your Labour Party is announcing it is backing 2nd Referendum. And Donald Tusk, the Polish president of the EU Councilhas called a delay rational but your Mrs May has rejected… (because she believes some magical consensus will now be achieved? Is she actually this incompetent???)
Better late than never. This is what I had long been hoping for. I think Labor pushing for a second referendum is the only path to it happening.
Things are looking up. An extension seems like a formality.
To my mind, the most appropriate way forward is relatively long extension to allow a general election, with Labor laying out a clear manifesto for a second referendum, and specifying exactly what the referendum would look like; and the Conservative party laying out [something else]. This way, any change to the result of the first election has to pass two hurdles of democracy - a general election in which the question of a new referendum is a primary factor, and then (if Labor win) the referendum itself.
Oops, thanks - and I’m British. That’s a hypercorrection error on my part from having to consciously correct what I write to U.S. spelling so often (I live in the U.S.).
It’s very sad to see the Leave fanatics (like Quartz) try to ‘analyse’ the situation.
Their only point is “We had a referendum and the result to Leave must apply for all eternity.”
Of course the Referendum was badly flawed. It should have said:
Which of these options do you prefer?:
Hard Brexit (no agreement on anything)
Norwegian relationship with the EU
Canadian relationship with the EU
negotiated relationship with the EU
Remain
The Leave camp focused on three things:
there would be a massive invasion of Turks unless we leave (Lie; Turkey is not even a member of the EU)
the NHS would get $350 million extra per week (Lie; we would lose a massive amount of money by leaving)
“Take back control” (a meaningless slogan based on prejudice.)
Leaving will cause very difficult trade problems on the Irish border (where one country is in the EU and the other isn’t. We could even see the resumption of terrorism…)
Sadly we have no political leaders of any quality. :smack:
