1972 and 2016 are both dominated by an ever growing economy fuelled by population growth and exploiting resources than are either fossil or used beyond sustainability. 2060 is going to be different in qualitative ways. If it isn’t, it means we’re still driving towards the cliff hollering about the overarching importance of maintaining our speed.
I’ll be 93 come 2060 so I’ll likely be 6 feet under or ensconced in a care home. In 2060 we will have completed the transition away from fossil fuels.
I do think there will have been a nuclear detonation or two, but not a massive nuclear exchange, and people will wonder what all the fuss was about.
In the year 2060
Everyone you meet is shifty
You ain’t gonna need your teeth, won’t need your eyes
You won’t find a thing to chew
Nobody’s gonna look at you
True, but the transition from 1928 to 1972 would haev been a lot more jarring than the transition from 1972 to today. Technology is always improving but it seems like rather than being a straight line, it’s more about game changing discoveries or events that bring about very rapid change. The last such huge change was obviously the rise of the internet, but for someone from 1972 that’s pretty much the only important thing they’d have trouble grasping. Whereas someone moving from 1928 to 1972 would live in a world completely revolutionized by air travel and a world remade by the New Deal, WW2, the Cold War, the civil rights movement, and the sexual revolution.
I think what the OP is getting at is, “Will the time between now and 2060 see changes so huge that a person from 2016 would be totally lost?” as someone from 1928 going to 1972 would experience, or will it be more a case of going from 1972 to 2016, where there are many important changes, but aside from one big one, nothing you wouldn’t have seen coming or can’t quickly adjust to.
If I had to predict, I’d say there’s a 70% chance that if you ended up in 2060 you’d see little that is genuinely revolutionary, just a lot of stuff that’s better. Faster computers(probably mostly wearables), zero emission cars, 3D printers in every home(they won’t be called that in 2060), and most entertainment totally interactive or immersive in the case of scripted TV and movies. We’ll continue to make progress in civil rights, but we’re unlikely to see the huge changes we saw from 1928 to 1972. More like the steady change that occurred from 1972-2016.
But then there’s that 30% chance that some hugely revolutionary discoveries get made. Maybe 3d printing will be so good that all material goods are essentially free. That’ll upend the entire economic model. Maybe almost all work will be automated and no one except people with postgraduate degrees will have work, with everyone else living leisurely on a basic, but comfortable income, plus your 3D printer, which makes everything from food to medicine to household appliances to robots that can provide any service you need, from legal advice to massage to a fitness instructor. Heck, maybe money won’t be needed at all because of that.
Or maybe we solve the mystery of aging and you plop down in 2060 and everyone looks 25. That’s certainly a game changer.
Maybe we develop holographic tech, or the ability to construct dreams for people(probably easier), so that most people don’t even bother to live in the real world. We’re already seeing how most people have their face in their phone for half the day. Maybe if you pop suddenly into 2060 the streets of New York City are nearly deserted because no one has a reason to ever leave the house.
This.
I was just starting college in 1972. Just about everything I have now I had then. From “free love” (in principle…) to computer networks (at my school). I would have been utterly astonished by today’s television, cars and driving, food, communications, race relations, etc. All of those things existed in 1972. My 1972 self could watch a 2017 TV, drive a car, make dinner, use a phone, etc. with the skills I had in 1972. What would have been utterly incomprehensible is the change in quality, origins, speed of life, etc and all that implies. It was a big big deal that I found a way to call home in Va. from Rhode Island more than once a month in 1972. Wrapping my head around literally calling anywhere in the world while I am walking across the quad would have taken a lot of getting used to. Nixon went to China in 1972. That my iPhone could even exist and be made in China and exported to the US would have been incomprehensible in 1972 (to the Chinese more than me). It isn’t the gadgets, it is using the gadgets that is so different.
Pandora’s box has already been opened. We’re going to be seeing huge advances in biomed and computer technologies over the next 43 years. The bad news is our currently existing social structures and institutions are completely unequal to the task of dealing with the types of changes these advances are going to demand. Does anyone for example foresee a rational debate about adopting reasonable legislation concerning the ethics of genetically engineering humans in an information environment where the majority of humans rely on fake news in forming their opinions about…whatever you care to name?
Sigh. When will you people learn to read my mind instead of my typing?
In 2060, I will be a spry lad of 97…
As we peek out from the climate controlled, ionized radiation reducing domes, it will be a lot like walking on Mars. There will be no life outside the domes. All water will be toxic. Only scavengers out to hunt for raw materials will make the trip outside the dome.
People will be classed based upon what they can do for society. If you are unable to perform any necessary task, you will help fertilize the food.
Children will not be raised by parents. All children will be confiscated upon birth and placed in a nurturing center so no child will get a “bad” parent that ruins their life.
Oh, and the robot overlords have commanded me to not tell you that they have shown me with this glimpse from the future, so please don’t tell them.
I hate it, but I am in agreement with your dystopian vision. I see things getting worse, and I don’t know if we’ll recover. Agent Smith was right: Humanity is a virus.
Cue Donald Fagen’s “I.G.Y.”
I disagree. I believe that the have-nots in 2060 will be far better off than the have-nots of today. That said, I believe that the haves will also be better off than they are today.
Unless you’re talking about fossil fuels, I disagree. Humanity is in the process of migrating away from fossil fuels. But the population will stabilise, and the world is more than capable of feeding us.
But with that I agree.
No, I was also talking about drinkable water, petroleum-based fertilizers, arable land and all the other resources we are using up or destroying faster than they replenish themselves. And then there’s climate change and the rapid extinction of species.
I am so glad I won’t be alive in 2060 with the way things are going now !
I’m also glad I don’t have children, for that among other reasons. I expect future generations will despise us, given the situation they’ll inherit.
I’m not sure human beings have that much self-awareness. In all likelihood, they’ll blame a conveniently marginalized social group, long for the good old days and try to make the world great again.
And I hope this isn’t interpreted as a simple political jab. This mindset has shown up multiple times in multiple different cultures spanning centuries and continents. It’s just how people actually respond to hardship.
The war between the Haves and the Have Nots in the industrialized nations will not resolve itself peacefully. They will be intense violent conflicts.
At some point the next China will become politically de stabilized . This will have serious negative ramifications for the rest of the world and the world economy.
Many Whites in the US will join white identity groups up different types as their relative percentage of the population decreases.
Global warming will begin to re profile many of the low-lying shoreline areas in the United States.
Newer better methods of birth control will virtually eliminate unwanted pregnancies.
Women will see their earning power be at parity with or exceed men’s. While women will gain economic power they will lose some measure of politeness and deference they have been granted historically.
Sent from my SM-T320 using Tapatalk
There are no true have nots in advanced industrialized countries, which will cause those in the truly have not countries to marvel at how spoiled brats can ruin a good thing. And then move in and claim what’s left.
It’ll be equally unlike both 2016 and 1972, so I didn’t vote. Hopefully, it’ll be just on the edge of post-scarcity for everyone. But that’s just hopefully.
Yeah this.
I agree with some posters upthread who’ve suggested that technology has been somewhat incremental of late. But we know that can’t be end of the story, as there are key areas where a little jump in our understanding would be a game-changer. And it looks like biotech is a likely place to host such jumps.
I recently went to a conference about CRISPR/Cas9, and if even 5% of what people were suggesting would happen in my lifetime actually happens, we’re in for some pretty amazing (and in some ways scary) times. And the first treatments using this tech are already in human trials.
I’ll tell you one thing: in 2060 we still won’t have flying cars and jetpacks.