Current projections seem to state that we have enough oil for the next 200/300 years after which we will start to run short of world stocks.
This is because we are using it faster than we are finding it. So inevitably we will eventually run out. This may happen in 200 years or in 500 years or in 1000 years (if we manage to spread it out well or we find new reserves).
But current estimates give us 200 years or so
So what will we do when it does happen?
Oil is used in so many industries - travel, plastics, microchips etc. Can we possibly hope to maintain the same standard of living once the oil’s gone or will we return to some pre-industrial state?
I’m guessing that within 200 years, fusion and/or microwave will have become better developed, to the point they are actually efficient. Thus, rendering oil useless, in terms of an energy source. I believe fusion is possible now, it just takes more energy to power it that it can produce.
Well, based on the information in this thread, 200 years is a bit optimistic.
But this is a good question. I don’t think that energy production is nearly as big a problem as the material byproducts that will become scarce or unavailable.
The problem will solve itself in a sense. Because long before we ‘run out’, it will start to be more and more scarce. When that happens, the cost will increase, which will stimulate development of alternatives. Eventually, it will be too expensive to use as a general fuel, at which point our demand for the stuff will go down greatly while we still have plenty of it left for making plastics, lubricants, etc.
There’s enough easy-to-get oil in the --stan countries surrounding Afghanistan to start a wa. . . oops, sorry. Russia is floating on it.
There is more oil in northern Alberta locked in the tar sands than there is or ever was in Saudi Arabia and environs, and it’s getting cheaper to extract it.
Even without oil, there is enough coal on the planet for a zillion years. I think Britain is still sitting on enough coal to last 300 years at the rate it was being used in the 1920s to '40s. With coal you can make gasoline, oil and anything else, including aspirin.
A while ago the Saudi oil minister, who I think, is the nephew of the king, said something to the effect that changes are not so far off and oil will not hold its position forever. The stone age, he said, didn’t end because of a shortage of stone.
But maybe he said that because his petroleum royalties for vinyl LPs dried up.
Many people are mislead by this statement. In fact it is more than likely we have enough oil for thousands of years. This statement actually refers to current oil fields that are known about. There are undoubtedly vast tracts of oil in areas such as siberia, it is just that it is just not financially viable to drill for it yet. As demand increases it will become viable to get this oil.
Etaoin, I don’t know where you got this information from. How do you make oil (and therefore gasoline) from coal? Cites?
The problem with coal in Britain is that it contains too much sulphur, which is too poluting. Prevaling winds carry polluted rainclouds over sweeden and acidify the lakes, and this is one of the reasons Britain now imports coal.
As to the answer to the question, by the time we have run out of oil, I imagine we will have advanced far enough to find other methods of producing these things. Eg plastic could be synthesised. For energy, I think solar power is the best alternative energy source, it just requires more investment. Oil companies are beginning to invest in alternative energy sources, but as long as we still have cheap oil, these are not going to get much funding
Solar Power might become more useable, but as is, its really lame. You aren’t going to see cities run by it anytime soon. Although individual houses could cut their power needs a lot by having better energy design.
We already have vehicles which run on alternative fuels, most notably natural gas. Hybrid vehicles such as the Honda Insight are becoming popular. Vehicles with diesel engines modified to run on used vegetable oil, such as the Greasecar or the Veggie Van, will likely increase in numbers and possibly one day be mass produced.
Look up coal gasification for more information. The process produces simple hydrocarbon liquids as well as simple gases such as methane, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, etc. From these, it is straight forward to produce other hydrocarbons.
Pilot plants have been built to prove the technology. It’s just cheaper to use oil.
Thanks, scm1001. I didn’t know that was possible. However, it sounds to me like they were extracting the oil from the coal, not converting coal to oil.
Internal combustion engines are one of the largest consumers of oil products in the world, and these will run on quite a few things besides gasoline. There have been vehicles modified to run on alcohol, compressed natural gas, and numerous other things like vegetable oil. I heard of one guy who uses old McDonald’s french fry grease in his diesel engine. McDonald’s was just going to toss the stuff, so they are happy to have him haul it away for free. He says the only down side is that his car smells like McDonald’s french fries.
Gasoline is only used because it is very cheap and gives you a good bang for the buck (alcohol powered cars don’t have quite as much power, in comparison). As the price of oil goes up due to scarcity, one or more of these other alternatives will surely take its place.
Imagine pulling into a McDonald’s and saying “I’ll take 2 big macs and a tank full of grease please.”
?sdi]Originally posted by Nukeman *
**However, it sounds to me like they were extracting the oil from the coal, not converting coal to oil. **
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I cannot find any links directly, but I am pretty sure that is a partial degradation/oxidation with water and oxygen to produce something like synthesis gas, which is then turned into something like petroleum. The problem with coal is that it is very dirty. So it is more than merely extracting - there is very little in coal that can be just extracted - one of my labmates did this for a project and got tiny amounts of horrible mixtures from it usually .
Not everyone thinks there is lots of oil left e.g see http://www.swenson.com/ron/961024b.htm. The problem is not that there is not lots of oil, but that most of it is too hard to get. E.g. at 100 dollars a barrel, sure you might be able to access billion of barrels, but the worlds economy is screwed. As a scientist, I don’t necessarily see technology saving us, though I hope for my children’s sake it does, else it is Mad Max II for them.
One of the previous answers talked about whale oil. I remember a bath product that claimed to contain “baby oil” - so perhaps there is an alternative energy source after all.
yes it is. In fact, it’s already used in some african (?) countries (can’t remember which) whee they have converted car engines to run on ethanol. I believe they grow sugar cane and ferment it. However, the oil companies aren’t going to let something like that happen. They would also argue (correctly) that you can’t make plastics (etc) with ethanol. Anyway, people would drink it.
yes it is. In fact, it’s already used in some african (?) countries (can’t remember which) whee they have converted car engines to run on ethanol. I believe they grow sugar cane and ferment it. However, the oil companies aren’t going to let something like that happen. They would also argue (correctly) that you can’t make plastics (etc) with ethanol. Anyway, people would drink it.
