Absolutely right. The reinstatement of the draft is extremely unlikely; it’s just not in the government’s interests in any way, unless a continent’s armies come crashing into Los Angeles with guns and bombs. Our volunteer armed forces are sufficient to handle any threat lesser than that. So, registering with Selective Service doesn’t actually put anyone at realistic harm.
And anyway, there are lots of exemptions. Even besides conscientious objection, there are things like the exemption for the only living son. Thanks to this, I can’t be sent to war even though I’m enlisting in the Air Force.
If I were CINC for a day, I would probably want drafties in supporting roles - truck drivers, logistics, what have you. Reserves get bumped up to more front line rolls.
Do you know how that works in the case of divorced parents? If one parent later has another son, is the first son up for grabs even though the other parent still only has -one- son?
Across the land, legions of Bush-voting chest-thumping flag-waving all-American conservatives of eligible age would suddenly break out in minor but debilitating ailments that’d ho so unfortunately keep them from serving.
Rush Limbaugh would have a weekly feature on his show where prominent conservative bigshots like Dick Cheney, Karl Rove, Donald Rumsfeld, Sean Hannity, Michael Savage, Gary Bauer, and Don Evans would offer tips for their listeners on how to diagnose the very-very-very-very-very-early warning signs of an impending anal cyst or some other “unspecified medical condition.”
Donald Rumsfeld, whatever faults he may have, served as an active duty Navy pilot from 1954-57, and was a drilling reservist until 1975. He retired as a Navy Captain.
What on earth warrants his inclusion on your pathetic little list, there.
Actually, there are no such exemptions for only living son, or for college enrollment, or for new parents, or anything. That might be the way things worked during the LAST draft. Since there is no draft, no exemptions to the draft exist. If there were to be a new draft (which there won’t be), it would require an act of congress. They would have to put in place entirely new draft laws. I sincerely doubt that they would simply reinstate the highly upopular and manifestly unfair draft system from the 60s and 70s.
On a positive note, I imagine a draft (but of course this is merely hypothetical, because there WON’T BE A DRAFT) would finally end the ban on homosexuals in the military. There’s no need to get a doctor to sign a medical deferment for your ingrown toenail if you suddenly have an acute case of the gay.
IF, IF, IF the draft returns and IF, IF, IF it was like what is on the SSS website, then almost no deferments, a birthday lottery yada yada yada.
Given that, opposition to the draft would drop like a rock.
The draft pool for the first year would include perhaps six MILLION, and each year thereafter would be about 2 million. Barring a land invasion into China or India, how many hundred thousand could we actually need? 95% of the men wouldn’t be drafted and none of the women. It’s too small a percentage for much political impact.
One interesting thing to note is the relatively recent change made to the draft procedure, in that college students are no longer exempt, as well as treaties made with Canada and England that are mutual draft protection (if you’re drafted by America and you happen to be living in Canada, you still have to go). And women are included, though there currently isn’t a mechanism for them to register with the Service to be listed as draftees.
I don’t see a draft as terribly likely. As much as I would love to portray the Bush Administration as foolish, inept, short-sighted, greedy morons, and despite how much they try to fit that mold, there’s no way that it would get past congress, because any one of them who voted for it would be out of office next term (and maybe because they have more sense, dunno, they did pass the Patriot Act).
The existence (and nature) of deferments would play a huge part in public reaction. The Vietnam War and its famous college deferments are an example, as was the ‘$300-dollar’ exemption in the Civil War.
Since the only way there would be a draft would be in the event of essentially World War III (and since there were fewer deferments in both world wars), I wonder if a new draft would include any. And if so, what would they be for.
College deferments, for example, would be a joke today – back during the Vietnam era, colleges actually flunked people, whereas today, anyone who wanted to avoid being drafted today could find a cheap, easy-grading community college. (I know that people did this during Vietnam, but I’d think they had to be more motivated).
The issue of homosexuality being a disqualification would be very diferent today too. I’m not saying homophobia has gone away, but acknowledging you were gay (or falsely claiming to be) carried a much greater stigma 40 years ago. Today, you’d have lots more draftees simply claiming they were gay.
With these deferments in place, the draft would revert to an essentially all-volunteer force. Anybody who wanted out could do it.
Mr. Moto, I’d be interested in your opinion on the two questions I posed in the second paragraph. No real dog in this fight, being that I’m 45 and childless. I’m just curious.
Right now we are seen as having a troop shortage in relation to the amount of overseas commitments we have. And from the reports most commanders are giving we need more troops.
But say in Iraq the commanders aren’t asking for huge numbers of extra troops, we’re not seeing requests for 200,000 more troops or anything like that.
Most people think say 50,000 extra in that theatre would greatly alleviate a lot of problems.
So, when talking about a number like 50,000 it just isn’t worth the immense political capital that would be spent bringing the draft back.
Not to mention the U.S. military is more geared towards rapidly deployable highly trained career soldier populated divisions now. Not the more ponderous cannon fodder found in the Vietnam era.
So this all in mind I’d say something chaotic and catastrophic would have to come to pass for their to be a draft. We’re talking something that strikes at the core of American civilization, at the very foundations of our government and our society, something that threatens us with complete destruction.
In a case like that, the need would be so desperate that firstly:
Rules against gays in the military would be removed, probably damn quickly
People who are now turned away from the military for minor issues (for example if you have had broken bones you will be turned away lot of the time, even if the problem causes no deficiency in your performance of any task) would be drafted.
Women would be pressed into non-combat roles en masse for sure, and possibly combat roles.
No one would riot or complain that much because it would be something so destructive the immense need for as many fingers and as many triggers as possible would be seen by virtually everyone.
Slightly off-topic anecdote: I joined the Marines via delayed entry a couple weeks after I turned 18 in January 1982. Received a Selective Service Registration notice, and threw it away since I was joining. A few months pass, I’m stationed at Camp Pendleton and my mother sends me a letter from them stating that I’m gonna be in big trouble for not registering.
Hell, I didn’t know I still had to. Went to my squad leader and suggested that maybe for fun I would defy them to come arrest me in my dress blues. He would have none of it. I registered.
What kind of draft? A full on, every male Vietnam style draft? I can’t see political folks buying in to that under almost any circumstances. As has been noted the Armed Services are pretty much adamantly opposed to a general conscription.
I can see, perhaps in the event of a catastrophic terrorist attack or a spectacular emergency that there may be a specialized skills Draft. And in fact, the head of the Selective Service has stated on the record that the Service’s “priority” is preparing for a special needs Draft.* This means, for instance, Doctors under the age of 42 and/or other certain needed skills, in an Iraq/chaotic situation this would likely mean people with police, civil and fire experience. I would expect the vast majority of these people to (understandably) scream really loudly and be furious at the unfairness of it (it is) from the time they are notified pretty much continuously until the bus taking them to basic pulls out - which in my WAG something along the lines of 90% of them will be on.
*the SelServ’s job is to prepare this and make plans – it doesn’t mean they ARE planning to do this, only that they are charged with “what if” planning and this is the “what if” they are spending their time on - not on how to get the male half of the Class of '06 into Fort Leonard Wood.
Name: Donald “The Don” Rumsfeld Born: 1932 Employer: The U.S. Taxpayer Conflict Avoided: Korea Notes: When the shooting started in Korea Rummy here was either 18, or about to turn 18. Not to worry for him, though — he spent the war at Princeton, wearing a ROTC uniform. Once the war was over he flew jets for the Navy for a few years.
And let’s not overlook your ignoring the other names on that “pathetic little list”…
I wasn’t talking about generic policies that the American people don’t like, I was speaking specifically about the draft, which is a Big Fucking Deal compared to, say, fucking over the environment. The Pubbies KNOW they’ll be thrown out of office if they institute the draft without invasion-level provocation, and they have demonstrated in the last two elections that they value winning election above all else, therefore if they institute the draft without such provocation it will only be because they KNOW they cannot lose the elections in 2006 or 2008.
Right. Let me ask you, then, what your opinion of me is.
After all, I could have joined the military when I turned 18, in which case I would have served during the first Gulf War. I didn’t, however, join the military until 1993. I served in the Navy for five years, so I got out before this current war.
The parallels are quite striking with Rumsfeld’s service. Are you prepared, therefore, to call me a chickenhawk?
BTW, I’ll dismiss your list as long as you cherrypick. There are many current and former administration officials who you didn’t mention. Colin Powell’s veteran status isn’t under question, is it? How about Tom Ridge, who was an Army staff sergeant in Vietnam?