What would happen if a presidential candidate quit on the eve of the election?

In My Humble Opinion
1

Crazy scenario, but let’s suppose its Trump vs. Clinton. Then on Monday before the election, Trump reveals its all been a big scam and he quits. There’s no time to get another candidate on the ballot. The GOP have no clear cut 2nd candidate. There’s a few scenarios where I don’t know what happens then:

  1. Would Obama be obligated, or is it even legally possible, to move back the election to give the GOP time to run another candidate? Ignoring that he would be crazy to help them, let’s say he tries at least. Can he? Would an emergency session of Congress passing a law moving the election back after it happened (assuming it takes until Wednesday to get everybody together) be possible?

  2. Clinton wins. Do the GOP have a case in the SCOTUS at all? I’m sure they’d try to sue, but what could the case possibly be? I’m assuming they’d be fucked because plenty of local elections run with only one person and no opposition. On the presidential level that’s unheard of, but it wouldn’t be illegal

  3. What happens to the early votes? Would those be counted towards Trump if the GOP managed to somehow delay the election and get another candidate? Or would they be allowed to vote again?

  4. Trump wins, would his VP simply take over as the candidate and they shift all the votes to him? I can see the GOP Congress trying to do that, but is there some mechanism that allows that?

2

Since this involves speculation, let’s move it to IMHO.

Colibri
General Questions Moderator

3

IMO, the election would still take place. It’s really 50 state elections happening on the same day, and you aren’t voting for President anyway. The GOP would try to get all the electors behind another candidate, but there wouldn’t be much legally they could do. The electors would all meet at their various state capitols in December and cast their votes for whoever they are obligated/wish to vote for. Those votes are then read (to peals of Democratic laughter) in Congress in January.

4

It has to be noted that in the US system, you don’t actually vote for a candidate. Instead you vote for a slate of electors in each state that are pledged to vote for that candidate. The electoral ballots are actually cast in December. So a lot of your questions are not really relevant.

While electors are pledged to vote for certain candidates, they are not required to by federal law. In practice, electors can vote for other individuals. In the case of Horace Greeley, who died between the election and when the electoral votes were cast, the votes were dispersed among other candidates.

5

It happens that candidates drop out or drop dead right before an election. John Ashrcroft famously lost to a dead guy. The governor appointed the candidate’s widow to fill the Senate seat until the next election in two years.

Actually presidential elections are a bit clearer than most. If a candidate dies or quits right before the election, the election goes on. People vote. And then the electors selected vote for the president later. So if Trump dropped out the day before, people could still vote for him, or against him. If he still won, the Republican party would somehow get together and choose a person they want the electors to vote for. The VP candidate is an obvious first choice. But it could be someone else, this could be the break Mitt Romney has been looking for.

The problem comes from faithless electors. Just because the Republicans decide that VP candidate Ted Cruz is now the Republican candidate that doesn’t mean the Republican electors will actually vote for him. Most will, but some might not, they might still vote for Trump, or switch to Hillary, or vote for Reagan, or who knows. If a majority of electors vote for a person, that person will become president. But if there were enough defecting electors that no candidate could get a majority, the House of Representatives would get to vote on who should be president. If the Republicans still hold the house then the next president is whoever the party chooses, a pretty safe bet in the real universe, in a universe where Trump pulls off his mask and reveals himself as Old Man Johnson trying to scare kids away from the abandoned amusement park where he hid the smuggled diamonds, then who knows?

6

Regarding specifics:

The date of the federal election is established by law. The president can’t change it arbitrarily. Nor can I see holding a “do over” election being legally possible once the original election had happened.

Given a few days warning, it might be possible for Congress to pass legislation changing the date and the president to sign it. However, this would probably be politically impossible even if technically legal.

I can’t see how the actions of a losing candidate would invalidate the election of a winning one.

As has been pointed out, the votes go to electors rather than candidates. It’s pretty much impossible to speculate what the rules for voting might be in the extremely unlikely event that a new election was scheduled.

That would actually be extremely simple. The electors could simply vote for the VP candidate instead of Trump, and vote for a replacement VP selected by the party.

Alternatively, they could just vote for Trump and the original VP. If Trump refused to take the oath of office he could be impeached, and the VP would automatically take office. Then a new VP could be nominated by the president and confirmed by Congress. Of course, this would depend on having a cooperative Congress.

7

A very cooperative Congress. Any votes under the 25th Amendment take a 2/3 majority to operate.

8

A favorite scenario of authors of political fiction: one candidate dies/gets incapacitated/is caught in a major scandal and it’s too late to do anything about it.

The accepted procedure is for the party’s National Committee to convene and nominate a successor candidate. This actually happened in 1972, when Tom Eagleton resigned as Democratic VP candidate. It’s also happened a few times on a state level when candidates (Paul Wellstone in Minnesota, Jerry Litton in Missouri, et al) died before the election.

On a presidential level, the electoral college is the big question mark. On the one hand, they’re free to vote for whomever they want. On the other hand, the electors are generally party faithful who are getting a little thank you for the hard work they’ve put in over time, and not likely to go off wild.

9

Preposterous. It’ll be Trump/Cruz v. Sanders/Silverman.

And Trump won’t back out, he’ll get elected and then resign immediately. :smiley:

10

If Candidate Trump pranks the system that way, there is no real authority to call a do-over or to sign on to a postponement that would wreck many of the states’ own election calendars.

Most dickish part of such a move is that IIRC most businesses with his name on merely license it, so the angry mobs would be torching someone else’s property…

No need to impeach, I’d say - if a President Elect refuses or is unable to take office it creates a per se vacancy and the VP Elect ascends to the office.

Of course then the hope is that the VP choice was a somewhat “normal” Republican picked as a reach to the mainstream.

I agree a candidate refuses to become President Elect by quitting at the eleventh hour before the popular vote, or before the Electoral College meets, most likely the RNC/DNC would conclave urgently to decide if they endorse the VP candidate or an alternate, leaving the former name in as a placeholder, but as mentioned the Electors would not be legally bound by that.

11

I’m not sure that this is absolutely clear. Clause 6 says:

It doesn’t explicitly cover refusal to take office.

If the electors actually voted for Trump even if he said he was no longer a candidate, he would be the President-Elect. He would presumably automatically become President upon the expiration of the term of the previous President. He has to take the Oath of Office before “entering the Execution of his Office,” but the Constitution doesn’t give a time limit.

If a President-Elect didn’t take the Oath of Office, and didn’t formally resign, I think Congress would have to take some formal steps to declare the office vacant, rather than the VP simply automatically becoming President.

12

Doh! I totally forgot about the electors. Rookie mistake Yog! :mad:

Slight changes to my questions then:

I seem to recall that the electors were pretty loyal party people. That’s why you don’t get a lot of rebellious votes, or even symbolic votes like people in Congress do all the time. Even back in 2000, where there was the whole controversy, not one Republican elector went with his conscience and voted for Gore.

So assuming that they will vote who the GOP as a whole wants them to vote for, what are the chances that the the GOP can agree on a consensus before they vote in December if:

  1. Both the winning GOP candidate and his VP quit and there’s no consensus 3rd choice. Would the RNC chairman, or GOP Speaker of the House, or anyone in the GOP have the legal power to compel these electors to vote for an officially decided candidate?

So Reince Preibus gets together with the likes of the 3rd through, let’s say 10th candidate, they stay up all night and decide Mr. So-and-So and VP That Guy will be the official candidate. Reince and Paul Ryan make a big announcement that he’s the one the GOP wants. Can the electors be forced to vote for this person?

  1. Same as above, but let’s say they only agree on Mr. So-and-So. There’s no VP candidate. Is that even legal? Can a candidate run without a VP in the general? I’m assuming not. But in this weird case, can they decide on a main candidate and pick a VP later, after the official electors’ votes have been cast? Or will the absence of a VP disqualify So-and-So from getting elector votes. Or would that even matter since electors can vote for anyone?

  2. Speaking of which, I know the qualifications for president are 35 years old, natural born citizen, etc. And if, for example, that turned out not to be the case, Congress can just impeach him. But are the electors bound by that? Can they vote for a 20 year old Norweigian? Would this person be officially sworn in as president, work for a day, then get impeached? Or would the electors votes simply be ignored?

13

Some states have laws that bind electors to vote for the person selected by the convention. However, it is generally believed that these laws are unenforceable. No one has ever been charged under these laws, and if they were the question would go to the Supreme Court, who most believe would say the electors are free to vote for whoever they wish. In any case, the law wouldn’t apply in a case where the normal mechanism for choosing the candidate broke down.

There’s no law that says Presidents and Vice Presidents have to run on the same slate. It would be possible for a Presidential candidate to run without a VP. In that case, the electors for that candidate could vote for whoever they want for VP once the electoral college meets. If no person got a majority of votes for VP, the VP would be elected by the Senate.

There is no formal procedure for what would happen if a candidate did not meet the formal requirements for the office. Some Senators have been elected that didn’t meet the qualifications, and they were seated anyway, because the Senate didn’t do anything to kick them out. The Senate and the House have internal procedures to expel members, but unless the Senate or House votes to expel the member then they remain in good standing.

Obviously, if an ineligible presidential candidate gets elected they could be impeached. But that requires the House to vote to impeach and the Senate to vote to convict. If they don’t do that, then there’s no impeachment.

There is no formal procedure for what to do if a particular president-elect is, or is claimed to be, constitutionally ineligible for the office. But basically when the House counts the electoral votes they could refuse to accept votes for an ineligible person. Or they could. And whatever decision the House makes would be pretty much it. The Supreme Court would almost certainly defer to the House. Any candidate who could get the House to certify that they were elected president becomes president. Any candidate who can’t, won’t.

Note that this doesn’t bar later impeachment, but that would require the House that previously certified the election to change their mind. That could happen, there’s a new House every two years after all, and Representatives are well aware of public opinion and can change positions based on changing political calculus.

14

I’m not sure that this is absolutely clear. Clause 6 says:

It doesn’t explicitly cover refusal to take office.

If the electors actually voted for Trump even if he said he was no longer a candidate, he would be the President-Elect. He would presumably automatically become President upon the expiration of the term of the previous President. He has to take the Oath of Office before “entering the Execution of his Office,” but the Constitution doesn’t give a time limit.

If a President-Elect didn’t take the Oath of Office, and didn’t formally resign, I think Congress would have to take some formal steps to declare the office vacant, rather than the VP simply automatically becoming President.
[/QUOTE]

But there’s also the Twentieth Amendment, which provides:

[QUOTE=Amendment XX]
Section 3. If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.
[/QUOTE]

The normal qualifications are set out in Article II, Section 1, Clause 5, which Presidnet-elect Trump would meet, but then there is the additional requirement of the oath:

[QUOTE=Article II, Section 1, Clause 8]
Before he enters the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation:—“I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”
[/QUOTE]

If President-elect Trump refuses to take the oath of office, does that mean he’s “failed to qualify” and therefore the Vice-President elect assumes the office under the Twentieth Amendment? That seems a cleaner solution than saying Congress gets to fix it; where does Congress get that power?

15

The problem is that the situation of a qualified President-Elect refusing to take the Oath of Office or refusing to serve was never envisioned, so there is some ambiguity in the language used in the Constitution and amendments about exactly what would happen in this case (as I think you recognize by the question mark after your first sentence). If the Electoral College has elected a qualified presidential candidate, then technically the Twentieth Amendment may not apply. According to some interpretations, the candidate would technically be president, but unable to execute the duties of office until he takes the oath.

If he were recognized as president, but refusing to serve through not taking the Oath (even though chosen, qualified, and capable), then either he would have to be removed by the Congress through impeachment, or by the VP and cabinet under the Twenty-fifth Amendment.

It would be pretty much inevitable that the Supreme Court would be brought in at some point (even if its decision was not to take up the case and let stand whatever solution had been worked out by Congress and the political parties).

16

ISTM that looking closer at the 20th, the VP-elect would take over as *Acting *President until whenever the Prez-elect decided to take his oath. And that in that case it would take an impeachment to nuke him from office permanently.

17

And the mess if the election went into the house because the electors hared off in different directions would be disastrous.

From the 12th amendment, enacted after the Jefferson-Burr catastrophe:

Except for the Jefferson-Burr situation (in which every Democratic-Republican elector voted for both of them and they both got a vote from the same majority of electors) this happened only once, in 1824 and the election was bought in return for the Secretaryship of State. The person who had the largest number of votes, Andrew Jackson, was shut out, but he won in 1828.
So the vote is by states, each state having one vote. If a state’s delegation is divided evenly, presumably that state will not vote.

18

I’d say that refusing to take office would qualify as “the Removal of the President from Office”. It’s an act of self-removal. And as William Tecumseh Sherman demonstrated, it can be done pre-emptively.

19

It was Jackson and his supporters that claimed the election was bought for the office of Secretary of State. Adams and Clay both denied it; Clay said he threw his support behind Adams instead of Jackson because he believed Adams was a better choice. And it’s likely that’s true; Clay’s politics were much closer to Adams’ than Jackson’s and Clay disliked Jackson personally.

20

Unless you happen to be a member of the Supreme Court, that may not count.:wink:

Sherman never had the opportunity to refuse to serve, since he refused to run.