What would happen if we started choppering aid into Burma without permission?

Factual Questions
1

Would the junta just start shooting our helos out of the sky?

Thanks,
Rob

2

If we dropped boxes of aid, the government would send troops to collect up the boxes and regulate distribution, which is the very thing that they want to do any way and what we’re trying to avoid because it’s too open to abuse. But, delivering aid like this has the added bonus of leading to conflicts between the government troops and the local folks who would, undoubtedly, find the boxes first.

Do we let people die by not overriding the neighborhood bullies, or do we let people die by creating a situation where they are put in direct violent conflict with those bullies?

We could try giving supplies to one of the organizations that the Junta is friendly with, but that could backfire catastrophically if they found out.

Winless situation.

3

We have reports here that the aid that IS getting in, the main junta general has been stamping his name on the cases, so the people think it’s coming from him. This is a big reason they don’t want aid workers in; makes it harder to take the credit.

4

I am aware of that, but I was wondering what the ramifications would be if the US or the UN for that matter said, “Fuck you, try and stop us!”. Would this result in a lot of troops being killed? Would we set off a civil war? I realize that this is speculative and should perhaps be moved to GD.

Thanks for your help,
Rob

5

Hard to say how the Burmese military would react. The government is by all accounts deathly afraid of a US invasion and convinced it will happen at some point, as unlikely as that may sound to anyone else. This is third- or fourth-hand info, I know, but a reporter friend of mine was talking to a CIA man who claimed to have actually seen Burma’s contingency plans for the invasion. I think Burma would think nothing of blowing any and everyone out of the sky.

The Burmese people are totally cowed and have been for decades. There will be no civil war no matter what happens, last year’s protests notwithstanding.

6

I think China would have something to say about it, being best buddies with the Burmese generals

7

China’s not as close to Burma as it is to North Korea. And now with this earthquake on their hands, I think China’s not much of a consideration at this moment.