The Big Disclaimer of I WISH NO ILL WILL TO JOHN MCCAIN (mortal or otherwise [other than I’d like to see him lose by a landslide in November]). I did start morbidly wondering about this scenario though while watching footage of him on the news recently where he was obviously exhausted and looked like he was about to keel over.
McCain hasn’t received the nomination yet but it’s a foregone conclusion he will and he’s even pretty much the only ball still in play (though don’t tell Huckabee). If he were to die or drop out for health reasons or be caught on tape in the same big bed with Charlotte Rae and two of the Carter Brothers all at the same time or whatever that forced him out of the campaign, what would the GOP do? Would they have to hold the primaries over again since Giuliani and Romney et al have conceded, or would it go by default to whoever got the next highest number of votes in the primaries they’ve already had (Romney?) or, well… just what exactly? Since he’s in his 70s and has had health problems I’m sure it’s crossed somebody’s mind in the GOP.
Also, same question, but suppose either Obama or Clinton one or the other drops out before nomination and then the other dies/drops out/otherwise vanishes as well. Since the Dems have different policies for choosing a candidate (the divided dels and super delegate).
Also, is RFK (who, unlike McCain, still had real competition for the nomination IIRC) the most ‘in-the-lead’ frontrunner who ever died during their campaign?
If it happens before the convention, then the delegates meet, but simply choose a different candidate. The runner-up would be the obvious choice, but presumably all of McCain’s delegates would be free to vote for whomever they want, so basically it could be anyone.
After the convention, I’m not so sure. Presumably the GOP leadership would have to put forward a new candidate, I can’t imagine they could go to the expense of holding another convention. I’d suppose they’d simply choose McCain’s running mate, assuming such a person existed, but if its close to the actual election, I’d think they’d have to keep McCain’s name on the ballot and then have his Electors vote for the running mate when the Electoral College meets.
Simplicio is right about what happens if he should die before the convention.
After the convention, there are two possibilities. He dies after the nomination, but before the electoral college meets, or he dies after the electoral college meets.
In the former case, the party bosses would decide on a new nominee for President, most likely the VP nominee. McCain’s electors would then vote for whoever the party told them to, or somebody else if they feel like it.
If he dies after the electoral college meets (assuming he won), then the VP-elect would be inaugurated as President, and he would designate a new VP to be approved by the House and Senate.
This would be a nightmare scenario for either party. If it happened before the convention, the individuals empowered to decide what to do are the 2200 (Republican) or 4400 (Democratic) persons accredited as delegates to the National Convention. These individuals are mostly small-time party functionaries whom nobody expected to do anything more than wave signs and wear funny hats. Under these circumstances, the parties might be glad that they included superdelegates, and other delegates might be inclined to defer to them or to the party leadership in selecting a candidate. Or, maybe not. It could be ugly and would seem anachronistic and undemocratic regardless.
After the convention, the rules of both parties empower the party National Committee to fill any vacancy on the ticket. This has never happened with respect to the presidency, but has happened three times with respect to the vice-presidency: when the chosen candidate declined the nomination (D 1860), died in October (R 1912), and had to step down for mental health reasons (D 1972).
Kennedy wasn’t necessarily the front-runner when he died in 1968; most of the party bosses (who still carried a great deal of weight in those days) were leaning toward Hubert Humphrey, although formally uncommitted. But yes, Kennedy was the most successful candidate to die in mid-election year.
They’d seriously disenfranchise half of American voters by putting forth a candidate that (potentially) none of us voted for rather than give it to the one who got the second most delegates during the primaries? Wow.
The parties would pick whomever they thought would have the best chance of winning. Coming in second during the primaries isn’t necessarily a good indication of being able to win in November.