What would have happened in Iraq under the Arab Spring w/o the war

Great Debates
1

If there had been no war in Iraq but the Arab spring still happened what would’ve happened to Saddam Huseein and the Baathist regime Iraq? I don’t understand the politics or culture very well. However it was my understanding the Kurds in the North were already well armed, and the Shi’ite in the south didn’t like him either. So with air support like Libya saw would he have been toppled too?

Since Saddam was such a pain in the ass to the western world I’m sure they would’ve provided tons of military and intelligence aid like they did to the rebels in Libya.

I don’t think promises of ‘reform’ would placate people since leaders like the ones in Syria, Iraq or Libya were seen as trustworthy. Once the riots died down the leaders would just crush the opponents. So I don’t think the outcome would be like what happened in areas like Saudi Arabia or Kuwait where the gov. just gives money and promises reforms to placate people.

Then again Iran has successfully repressed their riots. And Syria has done a fairly efficient job of keeping their rioters from overturning the regime. But I don’t think either has what Iraq had, the ethnic groups being repressed were the majority (I think 80% of Iraq is shi’ite or Kurd under the sunni baath party). Plus the Kurds were already trained for combat from what I know. So if anything you’d assume it would have been a civil war with the shi’ite and Kurds overthrowing the sunni bath party and saddam hussein.

Of course the after effects may not have been that great, as has been seen.

2

Saddam Hussein probably would have had enough strength to overwhelm any domestic opponents,
and would not have hestitated to use it.

An insurrection in Basra posed no probplem for him in 1991, in the wake of his utter defeat in The 1st Gulf War.

3

An argument could be made that the whole “Arab Spring” phenomenon would not have occured were it not for the changes that happened in Iraq. So it’s hard to think of the uprisings in these various countries in a vacuum.

Also, an Iraq that had not been invaded had a pretty powerful army that was under the control of Saddam. Civil war perhaps, but it would have been ugly, and Saddam would not necessarily have come to the same end as Ghadaffi.

4

We might see a regional war if Iran moves into support the Shiites while the Turks move in the north to suppress a Kurdish state after they support guerillas across the border.

5

If anything it happened in spite of Iraq. Here’s a 2006 story about Iraq’s effect in Syria:

And recall that in Libya Iraq was specifically used by the rebels as an example of what they didn’t want to happen.

6

Do we get to assume that the no-fly zone was still in effect?

We could have pulled a “Libya”, although I don’t think the rest of NATO would have been as keen to do this in Iraq, and I doubt the famous Arab League would have been on board, either.

If an uprising did ensue, it would probably be much, much bloodier than what we saw in Libya because of the clear ethnic/sectarian divisions. The Kurds and the Sunni Arabs would have been none to keen on an ascendant Shi’a majority (as we all have seen).

Saudi Arabia sure would have been in a pickle as to what to do, but I think in the end they would have supported SH just to prevent another regional Shi’a power. See: Bahrain, although with obviously different historical ties.