Someone had touched on this in one of the other threads about Jan. 6 and it got me wondering.
How would the western democracies like Canada and the EU countries reacted? Would they have recognized Trump as president, or would they have imposed sanctions and refused to deal with his administration? How about China and Russia? How about other countries that are heavily dependent on U.S. trade and/or foreign aid?
I expect as the US is one of Australia’s largest trading partners, and we are in ugly dispute with our first [China] and all our international security arrangements include the US, we would express concern, say we are continually reviewing the situation and our political arrangements, and maybe bring the ambassador home for talks, but keep things on an even keel at all but top level [diplomatic, meetings with Trump appointees etc].
There might be a drop in the numbers of Australians holidaying and working in the US but official action on that front would probably be no more than a travel advisory.
Australian foreign affairs is largely bipartisan. We thought Trump was an unfunny joke and there was govt caution in looking too close to him, but would say that the underlying relationship between countries is solid and needs to be maintained.
We trade with a range of dictatorships, fascist and illegitimate governments. One more is fine.
“We” deal with who is head of state/government rather than how they got there or who should be. Because rarely there is a Plan B. Probably keep a low profile until it is clear that the US has accepted the situation. SCOTUS challenges, purges, counter coups etc resolved, that sort of thing. There is absolutely no diplomatic benefit backing the wrong horse.
Provided the treaties and diplomatic relationships are status quo we talk turkey with the guy in charge, and via back channels keep a sympathetic dialogue with the guys who aren’t. Just to hedge bets.
There have been plenty of legitimately installed leaders who have represented something other than our best interests.
The “Yes, Prime Minister” guide to internal affairs in other countries:
Nothing is going to happen.
Something might be happening, but we should do nothing.
Maybe we should do something, but there’s nothing we can do.
There was something we could have done, but it’s too late now.
Other countries would tut-tut, but that would be it. Just like the US doesn’t stop trading and having diplomatic relations with China, the US is too big of a trading and security partner to just tell us to pound sand.
I believe there would have been a massive loss of confidence in the U.S. government and nation as a whole. If America demonstrated that it was that crazy and that governance and elections had gone that haywire, what can you count on or expect of America anymore? Nothing. The USA would be totally unpredictable, a maverick nation by that point.
You would see an unfraying of international alliances like NATO, probably a big boost in nuclear proliferation as ally nations decided the US couldn’t be predicted or counted on for anything anymore, a massive unraveling of trust in everything. Adversaries like Russia and China would exploit the American vulnerability to the max.
While at the same time publicly supporting Trump as the new president. Screwing up US democracy is one of their top priorities, and doing what they can to legitimize a coup plays right into that.
They might also start backdoor funding anti-Trump leftist militias as well, on the theory that the more time the US spends looking internally, the less time the US has for dealing with the rest of the planet, thus leaving open opportunities for their own expansion of influence.
Canada would quite quietly go insane trying to figure out how to extract ourselves from the mess the US had become while still being the single easiest place for the US to invade, if and when Trump decided he needed an easy win to bolster his approval ratings. Lots of us move to Europe and Asia if at all possible.
Schadenfreude for quite a few I suspect. Especially those that had been the target of various regime change/color revolutions/invasions/wars.
But the bizarre Trump fear/mania probably would have had many countries that had not suffered the aforementioned revolutions to align against a Trump based coup. I still can’t fathom the hysteria the Trump presidency instilled. It does not stand out in any way as extreme. It was mostly the same old thing. He was of course an oddball. But his term was really not that remarkable in any way.
I am a Canadian. Viewing things a little detached. Trump was just a minor blip in U.S. politics. The reaction to Trump was the real effect. His election seemed to be more the lighting of the fuse, than the powder keg that then exploded.
You are wildly overestimating the level of day-to-day interaction with the upper tiers of US government that us furriners need to get about our own pursuit of happiness.
For almost 3 years, from September 2016 until February 2019 the United States didn’t get around to appointing an ambassador to Australia. During which time over 100bill USD in two way trade was conducted. Business as usual. No dings in the shop front windows.
We know that any WH can/have/will sell us down the Swannee any time deemed necessary to pick up a few votes in the mid-west. And we know that you will keep selling us stuff anyway, because you need that cash which we get from China so the US can keep making the down payments on your China credit card. And we got surfin’ too.
Since Trump had already been President for 4 years, then I think everyone outside of the US would have seen his remaining, even based on a coup, as very much “status quo”.
Likely, the dollar as a stable trading currency would have dipped, and other countries would have seriously searched for alternatives for their portfolios, but finding none, the dollar would have rebounded. In spite of Trumps insanity, his team would have likely crafted the message, “America is now stronger than EVER! And to our international allies, it’s business as usual.”
China and Russia would have, naturally, popped open the champagne and toasted the triumph of Trump.
Any sentiments of concern by other countries about what was going on in the US would be spun as, their realizing that America is no longer playing the lapdog to the rest of the world, and is finally getting the respect and fear from other coutries that it deserves. America Uber Alles First!
Trump’s lasting legacy is 1/6. That’s it. I agree that policy wise Trump is not significant. Trump was/is ignorant, apathetic, or scornful of every aspect of actually governing. In that way he was a polar opposite of W.
What people likely here sensed is Trump has the lack of temperament that enables a situation like 1/6. Upending the peaceful transfer of power is extremely costly and hasn’t been an issue since the days of Aaron Burr. Trump still standing as a citizen of the USA has grave consequences for our future and the future of the world. Anything Trump did in his other roles in life or as Prez is chump change by comparison.