Fair point, but at least in Ontario we are seeing positivity rates coming up on 10% and a doubling every 3 days, about 4000 as of today. My point is that exponential growth (!) with the period would give us every single person infected in about 33 days. @XT understates the effect of this growth.
Doubling every three days? That is fast. Already 4000 cases as of today means nothing to me if I don’t know the baseline: where are you, 4000 out of how many? In Berlin, 4.8 million inhabitants, we have had 312.659 cases and 3.969 fatalities, with 11.900 cases in the last 7 days the situation does not look so bad yet. I hope case notification works, the Robert Koch Institut is highly respected, Germany’s Johns Hopkins by analogy. It would be very embarrasing if they got it significantly wrong.
ETA: Link in German, but the figures and the places are easy to check, I hope.
Ontario is 14M people, about 20K cases/week. We were hovering around the 500/day mark for a few weeks.
It probably is inevitable to get it at some point. I am still not doing gatherings, I very rarely eat out, I am still masking, distancing and using hand sanitizer a lot. I am hopeful to avoid it, but it’s a real possibility.
In Berlin we can’t rely so much in the /day mark, because the weekends are very different and distort it all*, it is better here to focus on the 7-day average: 11,937 cases. Divided by 7 that would be 1,700. Ooops! But in the same page I linked to the “7-Tage-Inzidenz” is stated as 325.8 A stupid artifact of the data collection method. [Deutschland… he muttered and his blood pressure increased…]
- We seem to not report data on weekends, or it is not computed. Mondays are very low, Wednesdays are very high.
Positivity rates doubling every three days and cases doubling every three days is not the same at all. If you had 20K cases/week - that is. 2,857 cases every day - and those cases doubled every three days until the end of february, i.e. 66 or 3 x 22 days, (and that is not what your data means!) you would have 222 x 2,857 = 11,983,126,28 cases every day by then. But that is, thank Godott, not what your data says.
ETA: If positivity rates, that is, I reckon, the rates of tests that turn out positive out of the tests that are performed, are rising and are at and right now at 10%, and you had 20,000 cases last week, I infer that you only performed 200,000 tests. That is very low for 14M people, it seems to me.
Omicron is enormously more infectious than delta, which was a lot more infectious than prior variants. And prior infection/full vaccination only provides about 20% protection from infection.
I haven’t seen numbers anything like that low, certainly not recently.
I’m not terrified. I had a robust cellular immune response to my booster. I think it’s unlikely I’ll get dangerously ill, although I am still somewhat anxious about long covid. But yeah, I think it’s reasonably likely I will be infected.
The positivity rate is not doubling, the positive tests are.
I’m using rough numbers. Positivity was about 8% and we are running about 250K tests per week, which I agree is not nearly enough. Tests are very hard to book at the moment although they are aiming to more than double capacity.
WAG? 20%. Pfizer x3. Always mask indoors, actually cover my nose too.
Really? Masks work like that? Amazing!!!
Our housekeeper was here so we went out to do errands. Hubs tried to wear his stupid juvenile #FJB cap (got shot down) and refused to even consider wearing a face mask until he went to the hospital to visit his friend.
Here in the land of slightly over 50% vaccinate rate for adults, masks are considered weird and are cause of sideways looks and whispered comments. I rarely see masks worn properly.
That article doesn’t say Moderna doesn’t work as well as Pfizer. It says the original 2 shot regimen of Moderna is perhaps 50 times less effective against Omicron than it was against the original strain, but that this is similar to Pfizer’s efficacy. And for those who got Moderna and got boosted, the 3 shots in total should work about as well against Omicron as they do against Delta. Conclusion: Moderna is pretty good, and at least as good as Pfizer, so far as this article tells us, anyway.
ETA: As to the OP, I think my chances of being exposed are about average. Other than wearing a mask when I’m in public indoors and not eating, and partly working from home, I’m not living so differently now than I did before the pandemic. We have a lot of it going around here in Los Angeles, but we also have pretty good vaccine and mask compliance. If exposed, I think I have a decent chance of fighting it off without even realizing I’m infected; if I do get sick, I feel I have an excellent chance of avoiding the hospital and making a full recovery. I’m vaxxed and boosted with Moderna, and I’ll get the next shot and the next and the next as soon as they’re available and recommended. I’m also still reasonably young and healthy. So overall, I’m still not too worried.
But I only got the J&J (not as effective against Delta or Omicron) and then a Moderna booster (different from a full on Moderna).
2 shots: 1 (J&J) good against OG Covid-19 and then 1/2 a shot of Moderna.
Am I being too worried?
Whatever part of your worry comes from the fact that your booster was Moderna instead of Pfizer appears to be unwarranted. I’m not sure how much data we have on your specific cocktail of vaccines, though. I do have a doctor family friend who’s been following the research and thinks mixing and matching vaccines actually confers significant benefits, and especially mixing types (e.g. J&J plus Moderna or Pfizer, more so than Moderna plus Pfizer). Maybe in time the studies will prove him right.
That is exactly my worry. I’m in Iowa and our vax rate aint great let alone next shot (J&J didn’t have this) or booster.
We’re (those in my shoes) are still waiting to see what shakes out vs those 2X vaxxed and boosted.
Yet again I will reiterate I am glad, in my State, that I got a shot when I did even if, now, it’s not as effective? affective? dang homophones/homonyms) and as soon as I was able, in my State, I got a booster. Which is better than the many who have not been vaxxed at all for reasons (NA communities stepped up but… .)
There are a bunch of small preprint studies that show that an adenovirus vaccine followed by an mRNA booster provides very good protection. I think you are too worried. Or at any rate, the part of your worry related to which vaccine you got is unneeded.
That’s the same regimen I got. Sorta sucks, b/c back when we got JJ, it wasn’t as thought they were offering a choice. It was just get whatever you can find.
I’m figuring the difference between what we got an 3x Pfizer/Moderna isn’t significant enough to outweigh all the other behaviors/precautions we can engage in. No regimen makes you bulletproof.
Naw J&J by itself sorta sucks, but j&j followed by a moderna booster looks pretty good.
Check the chart at the very end.
I think you’re too worried. You’re good!
My chances? I don’t know. How likely is someone to get a second infection?
A very unscientific sampling of work and family makes me think its likely that most who haven’t gotten it yet will get it soon. Its spreading very rapidly.
Unless they are a hermit (self or govenment imposed) I think everyone in this thread has a near certainty of being exposed to the virus over the next six months.
Vaccination and boosting will stop the majority of us getting a symptomatic infection, severe disease or dying.