The CDC death data can lag by as much as 2 months, which means that all the values for the latest two months are under-counted. (That is, if you check in December how many deaths there were in July, you will see a much higher number than the number currently reported for deaths in July. Because a lot of July’s deaths haven’t yet been reported.
That being said, wastewater numbers remain a leading indicator. And they are reported thrice weekly in my area, with a lag of a day or two.
The wastewater numbers are rising. They are still low, but there’s a definite towards trend at this point.
…or, as Leaper has suggested, many immunocompromised are simply not getting out-and-about as much any more. I, for example, am no longer a photographer. I had to change my entire business model to protect my already-not-great immune system. I haven’t given up masking. I just go out less frequently, avoid crowds, buy groceries on the internet.
We’ve had to adapt. We didn’t have a choice. I’m not making a big deal of it. It is what it is. But just because you don’t see anyone masking doesn’t mean that immunocompromised aren’t out there making the best decisions that they can.
I have an immunocompromised friend. He and his wife don’t go out much; but when they do, they go masked. If I go see them, I mask, and we’d probably also meet outdoors.
I’ve sat in on EPA rulemaking sessions before, and it’s amazing how many factors get considered in deciding whether/how to implement a new pollution control regulation, and how deeply those factors get explored. It’s not just a matter of “the technology exists and will save lives, so mandate it.” They look at the cost to consumers who buy (and pay for maintenance on) polluting products, the effect on the industries manufacturing those products (jobs lost/gained), how many lives will be saved, how much health is improved, environmental effects, and more.
I have no doubt that the CDC undertakes a similarly complex calculus when trying to decide what disease prevention measures to mandate or recommend.
For what it’s worth, most people in the UK stopped wearing masks some months ago. Only hospitals insisted, but even they have given up now.
It helps that well over 90% of us are vaccinated and most of the elderly and those with breathing problems are already vaccinated for COVID and influenza this Autumn. My wife and I had ours done last Saturday at the GP surgery, and they were working rapidly through a long list. NO one I saw was wearing a mask, including the medical staff.
COVID vaccinations have a very short half-life. Don’t quote me on it but I think it’s something like 2 weeks.
Likewise, vaccines aren’t as effective in the elderly for the same reason that they’re at a greater risk of harm from COVID: Their immune system isn’t what it used to be. That makes it harder to respond to the disease and also harder to train to fight the disease.
Young people need to get vaccinated and they should do so 2-4 weeks before any holiday gatherings.
I don’t have time to look up an actual cite, but I’m pretty sure this is old information. I believe the shelf life if kept refrigerated is more like 4 to 10 weeks depending on which vaccine you are talking about, and significantly longer if frozen.
@Sage_Rat – And if you’re talking about how long they’re effective after a person’s vaccinated, while that’s going to depend on the possible appearance of new variants and on the particular individual’s immune system, it’s generally considered to be at least several months, with some lingering effect for longer. It’s two weeks before they become fully effective; maybe that’s the source of the confusion.
Studies suggest COVID vaccines are most effective in the first few months following your shot.
Note that they’re graphing on logarithmic scales so the rise and decline are greater than depicted.
That said, I recall the numbers as being fairly bad - ergo, the reason that Moderna and Pfizer were recommending follow-up booster shots every few months. But, maybe the numbers were based on smaller and worse studies.
This does look like you’re pretty solid for quite a while. I rescind the statement.