See the middle paragraph in the OP. It starts with “The conventional wisdom …”. I’m more curious why the trend didn’t continue in May. Do you think the terrorism explanation is a good one? Is it just random statistical noise?
It looks like the outlier is last May. It was down about 250K from the previous month and then went back up in June. Since December every month had been down over the previous year and May was the slowest month since the previous August.
There is a difference between refusing to answer (I refuse to answer surveys all the time) and lying on a survey (Who has the time and energy for that?).
If they are lying because think a pollster doing research is the same as “official questioning,” I think that counts as my third option, “It’s the debbil’s work!”
What trend? Plot the time series. We’re seeing an approximately linear increase since 2005. If you just look at May to avoid seasonal variation, the linear regression gives us an expected increase of 113k each year. 131k if you fit to all months since 2005.
There is nothing special about May 2017.
I would deny having firearms. There is virtually zero potential upside to disclosing, and greater than zero potential downside to disclosing.
On top of that, it is none of anyone’s business.
Of course, if politicians, academics, and members of the public push for policies based on the best data available suggesting that only a minority of people own guns and the ones who do are obsessive gun hoarders, I guess you’ll have no one else to blame.
(my bold)
They’ve done such a good job thus far.
I have no idea what this means.
We have very strong gun rights in this country, virtually unparalleled in any country on earth. We also have many people who believe that all gun owners are dangerous “gun nuts” and would like to see those rights reduced.
In that situation, it seems that deliberately deceiving researchers about your owning of guns has a potential downside.
Bring more into the fold but if anyone asks, lie about how big the fold is. Are you trying to build support for gun ownership or building a secret society?
Can’t it be both?
For what it’s worth, in personal conversations I am very intentionally vague about the number of firearms I own, and if a telephone surveyor asked me, I’d deny owning any too, and my personal experience is that that particular attitude is quite common among gun owners.
Reading gun threads here has caused me to change my position on gun control significantly. Don’t assume that your words don’t make a difference. Gun advocates in this thread are painting a picture of themselves that is making me reevaluate my position again. If people are open about wanting to protect themselves and their family without relying on others, I may think that’s foolish, but I support their political right to do so. If they are building secret arsenals because they have paranoid fantasies about people from Gallup and the Pew Research Center conspiring to disarm them, it makes me think we need to make tracking these people for their own safety and well-being as well as society’s into a national priority.
Yeah, what are you going to believe: a massive pile of painstakingly acquired and analyzed data, or what you know in your heart is true?
Who said anything about paranoid fantasies?
I’ll take anyone to the range that wants to go and have introduced folks to shooting many many times. I have no misgivings that there is going to be some armed revolution or anything of the sort. I’m also very private and wouldn’t share that information to unknown folks. If they asked me if I had cash in the house I’d say no to that too, even though I do have cash.
NICS data fits that criteria. I tend to think that would correlate with purchases. That data has shown increasing sales for quite a number of years.
Have you ever actually taken a survey? You know you can simply decline, right? That’s what most people do. It’s the quickest and easiest way to deal with pollsters. If you agree to take a survey and then lie on it, you either have some sort of twisted view of reality or you really need a hobby. Have you tried range shooting? I hear it’s quite fun.
I hope it’s obvious this was intended as a lighthearted jab and not a personal insult, but I recognize it’s on me to make sure it reads that way* before* I post. Apologies if it crossed a line.
If he knows that gun owners are going to be paranoid and deceptive about filling out surveys that are used to inform both the public and the elected leaders on public policy, then he is better informed than those of us that do not suspect, and would never accuse, that level of duplicity.
But, that puts me in a similar position as Alan Smithee up there a bit. I have actually come around quite a bit on the gun control issue, but this self admitted revelation of the levels of paranoia of gun owners concerns me.
For instance, all the Defensive gun use surveys are voluntary self reporting. I had some issue with that form of accumulating data, but figured it was at least a somewhat reliable data point.
With what the gun owners in this thread are telling me though, is that gun owners lie on surveys when it relates to guns, so while part of the reason that I found myself coming around a bit was based on surveys of defensive gun use, I now know that those are completely unreliable points of data, not just in the method of gathering of the data, but in the data itself.
What other facts are gun owners intentionally misleading the public about?
I am of the opinion that increased fire arm sales in the United States are driven by not one, but most likely several factors.
They are perhaps something along the lines of the following…
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Fear that, with the spate of public shootings–hell, going all the way back to Columbine and VaTech, and the resulting cry for stricter gun control by the Dems–Uncle Sam will soon relieve the general populace of their rights to purchase firearms. Thus, we are seeing a “better get 'em now while you can!” zeitgeist at work.
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Yes, the aforementioned Terrorist attacks, and the previously mentioned public shootings. Folks are now realizing that violence can occur anywhere, anytime. The media is guilty of fear mongering, of course. And exaggerating the threats. It always has been. Just like “If it bleeds, it leads” has been their mantra for donkey’s years. But people buy into all that. So, they simply purchase fire arms in order to feel a bit safer.
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Shooting as a sport or a hobby, that is, target shooting, going to the local range, is very popular now. So some folks buy guns just to do this. It’s pretty expensive to rent the guns and ammo at some of those ranges. I took my teenage niece to one last month to teach her to shoot and it cost us (well, me!) about $100 for a couple hours of shooting, just with a .9 mil pistol and then a .22 rifle.
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Again…the Media. And TV and movies. Hollywood. Video Games. Face it people, violence and shooting people is entertaining and sexy. Whether you will admit it or not. To become aroused or just pleased and entertained by it is ingrained into your DNA. Women included. Maybe especially women! I did my MA Psych thesis on a very similar topic to this.
So…with all that being true, many folks finally get a bit bored by just watching and decide to partake. I also believe that most of the famous public shootings over the past two decades–Columbine, VaTech, Aurora, Sand Hook, et al., in all likelihood would NOT HAVE EVEN HAPPENED–if not for the absurd level of violence and its attendant level of cheapening the value of life.
I know that last claim is a bit off topic. And I apologize for that. And it is also a controversial one and, alas, probably an unproveable one. But I stand by it. Just my two cents.
Thanks.
Again, why the fixation on paranoia?
The weakness of surveys is the strongest argument against DGU figures that rely purely on surveys. Those surveys make attempts to mitigate that, but the weakness will remain with any survey. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that the data is completely unreliable, but it is something to be cognizant of. I hardly think this is a secret since the criticism is raised quite frequently when talking about surveys. Of course, there is also correlation between those surveys and the NCVS in terms of DGU, so there is some increased expectation of validity. That also applies here with NICS data.
In any case, the survey data has been showing relative stability, with gradual declines in household gun ownership over the past several years if I recall correctly. It’s also true that over a similar time period, NICS data has shown increased sales. If both of those are true, then the conventional wisdom is that current owners are purchasing more, increasing their holdings. I think people are stockpiling more most likely, but I have my doubts as to the degree. it’s also possible that both are true, more people are buying, and more people are stockpiling. I grant that the survey data would seem to show increases in stockpiling.
But my totally informal anecdotal experience at the firing range would indicate more shooters overall.
Except that premise has far *less *credibility to that target market in the last few months.
It isn’t just the media. Follow the money - there are some pretty deep-pocketed campaign donors / media sponsors who benefit from higher gun sales.
If your point is that it has recently become significantly more expensive, fine, that makes sense - but has it?
Speak for yourself. :dubious:
If it’s “in our DNA” as you say, why does most of that stuff happen in the US? Is our DNA different from everyone else’s? Doesn’t our mass murder rate correlate much better with the availability of means here?
You could be right, even if the % of the total population is in decline. For example, Gallup asks a “Do you have a gun in your home?” question. In 2016, 39% reported that they did. In 2010, it was also 39%, and in 2000, it was also 39%. The census found that there were 105 million households in 2000, presumably 41 million of which contain a gun. By 2010, the census found that there were 117 million households, presumably 46 million of which contain a gun. By 2016, the census estimates we’ve got 126 million households, presumably 49 million of which contain a gun. We went from 41 to 49 million gun-owning households in 16 years.