what's driving firearm sales?

We just had the most NICS firearm background checks in May ever. January - April this year seem to have all been #2 or #3 highest totals for their respective months. What’s driving this record-setting pace of firearm purchases.

The conventional wisdom was that with a President Trump, and especially Gorsuch safely seated on the SCOTUS, sales would drop off significantly, as people felt their gun rights were secure and the ‘panic buying’ subsided. Why hasn’t that happened?

This Washington Examiner article blames / credits terrorist attacks. Do you think that’s it? Is American gun culture just enjoying a resurgence? Is it the booming economy? Something else?

Gun Culture 2.0

That’s my take anyways, for at least some of the change.

I think terrorist attacks could be a factor but the larger one is just the news in general, violent crime has been trending downward for decades with small hiccups now and then but the general trend has been downward. The sensationalist coverage of violence in the news leads many people to believe the opposite and that they need to arm themselves to ward off this ubiquitous threat that isn’t there.

I’ll put a guess in.

First, I DON’T think it’s due to an imminent American Uprising against the government, or anything like that.

I suspect a collection of things at play. Such as, that the economy is reaching the point where people can make luxury purchases again, and some are choosing weaponry. Such as that there has been a lot of talk in SOME places, about how certain minorities might want to switch from anti-guns, to open-carry themselves, in order to deal with the Trump-election-inspired attacks on certain peoples. Such as the terrorist and other attacks that have been in the news, simultaneous to lots of talk about how citizens need to arm themselves and not count on the police so much. Such as some of the political games being played by the RIGHT, of all groups, wherein they purposely work to undermine American’s faith in Homeland Security, as a part of getting themselves elected.

And so on. In general, my guess is that it’s that kind of stuff and maybe more, all coinciding to cause the increase. Heck, maybe the return of spring, and global warming’s obvious burgeoning is triggering some people to pop out for a handgun or a rifle.

It’s not more people buying guns, it’s the same people buying more guns.

Properly designed and cared for firearms can last decades, so the growth is all due to collectors, not some guy who saw a terrorist attack on TV last night and suddenly doesn’t feel safe going outside without a gun.

Cite?

I’m pretty sure that the rise of the internet isn’t the reason for a sudden spike in sales over just the past four months. A recent change, either economic, news, or Trump related seems much more likely to be the cause.

It’s not just four months, it’s been going up for the better part of a decade, maybe more.

As long as I can remember, the mantra has always been to bring more people into the fold.

So are you implying that Obama or other gun grabbing worries did not drive up gun sales?

This USA Today article states (among other interesting data) that

Seems pretty solid. Fewer gun owners percentage-wise (in absolute numbers still increased), increased gun ownership among those who have guns.

Also, not sure there’s data to back up the “bringing more into the fold” theory.

Thanks for the cite, and sincere effort. My point with Lemur866 was going to be that there are lots of new gun owners. Taking your example, in 2015 there were ~55 million gun owners in 2015. Given the average life expectancy is somewhere in the high 70’s, we can presume that roughly one quarter of the gun owners from 1994 died, and were largely replaced by a new and upcoming generation of gun owners who reached adulthood sometime in the last couple of decades. Those people are ‘new gun owners’, although, admittedly, there may be a few fewer of them than in previous generations. The whole point is probably a bit too pedantic, even for the SDMB, so I’ll drop it.

AIUI, there are now many liberals or gay folks who are buying guns, folks who wouldn’t usually be considered gun aficionados.

IIRC that guns sales to minorities have risen dramatically in the age of Trump. I OW, citizens of color deciding they need to protect themselves.

Fox News in March: Trump triggers slip in gun sales - except among some minority groups | Fox News

Not at all, that was certainly a major contributor, if not the largest at the time.

I don’t put that much faith in those surveys, I always suspect people would lie, like I would.

I think the idea that the police don’t protect - they respond - is becoming more obvious with the events of the last few years. Hence, the felt need to protect ones self.

This is exactly why I prefer the NICS checks number. It’s not perfect either, but it does largely eliminate the dishonest response error

Why on earth would you lie to a survey? And which direction would you lie: would you deny having any guns so the liberal surveyors don’t put you on the list of people with guns to grab, or would you say you have way more guns than you do so that it looks like guns are more popular and mainstream? Or would you just lie on the general principle that sociological research the debbil’s work?

Neither. As far as I know, all my relatives and friends are gun owners/shooters. I know of no exceptions… I doubt any of them would answer a random survey about their firearms. It doesn’t matter who is asking, it’s none of their business. IME, gun owners are likely to hold this attitude toward almost any official questioning.

The willingness to accept the survey results above (3% of gun owners holding half the nation’s 300 million guns) shows why the polls were so wrong in November.

For the OP’s question: I’d guess the sales are driven by the growing realization that governments are not competent to protect citizens from most threats. Whether FEMA or TSA, their organizations are little more than window dressing. We have to handle it ourselves.

This is an interesting use of statistics. Firearm checks are down in 2017 vs the same period in 2016. What’s driving this decrease?