Is there any reason to think the 2020 presidential election will be determined by anything other than the outcome in a very limited number (3-7?) of key states? Traditionally blue or purple states which Trump narrowly won? Like WI/MI/OH?
If you agree with me, what do you think are the key states?
And what is your understanding of how things stand in those states?
My fear is the brain drain has hit WI/MI/PA hard along with OH and MN. The strong economy has led to an exodus of younger people and/or educated people.
Here in NC the economy is booming in the major metropolitan areas, a constant stream of people are moving in. Rural areas are doing badly and losing jobs and population. Obama won here in 2008 but not in 2012. Trump won in 2016 despite Clinton spending a lot of time here.
I think the states that we can’t yet color in are:
WI, MI, OH, PA, NC, FL, and AZ. Also one CD in NE.
I think MI is in the blue column, judging by the 2018 results and how I’m seeing things right here.
OH stays red, because Ohio is a bit behind Michigan in most things.
WI goes blue, also based on midterms
FL stays red, based on Dem failures in the midterms.
This leaves us with AZ and NC. I think the parties split these states, I’ll give AZ to the Dems and NC to the GOP.
My map has D 290 R 248
Iowa as well. Obviously it’s getting tons of attention from Democrats because of the caucus but Trump’s trade war has been hell for farmers. 2019 was the craziest year for grain prices since the 2012 drought and heat and most farmers won’t blame a president for that. For a stupid trade war, they will.
Corn prices have been relatively stable since 2014 or so. Nothing to do with “Trump’s trade war”.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/historical-prices/corn-price/usd/1.1.2012_31.12.2019
I worked in commodities trading up until this fall. The grains have not been stable with China being smart enough to strategically target parts of the USA that would hurt Trump. Yes, some of the volatility can be blamed on the endless rain delaying planting season in 2019 but most of it was driven by Trump.
Swayable voters in “key” states matter; everyone else, not so much. California and New York are targets of cash-raising, not campaigning. Voters in small states are worth more electorally than those in states where most people live - Rhode Islanders’ votes have more impact than Texans’. Does this make most Americans feel irrelevant? No surprise.
There may have been more price volatility in 2019, but the overall price level hasn’t changed much in the last five or six years.
I should have added I don’t see Trump losing here in NC .
The margin between Republican and Democratic total votes in last year’s midterms was 74,000 votes out of 3.3 million cast, or about 2%. So a wave could carry your state but I agree with you that the demographics just aren’t there yet.
One political observer noted recently that the Dem deficit was falling the fastest in Texas, where it was biggest, and slowest in NC, where it was smallest. Both trends are difficult for my impatient ass to deal with.
I don’t see the map changing a lot from 2016. Everything stays the same but the following swing states are in play: OH, PA, WI, MI. Of those, my guess would be Ohio and Wisconsin will go red.
This result would give Trump the win with exactly 270 electoral votes. Yikes.