93.75% chance that he becomes a National Merit Finalist
15.625% chance he is awarded the $2500 scholarship.
100% chance of getting a much larger scholarship than that if he is named a National Merit Finalist and chooses the right school from the list that give free rides (some are accept all merit finalist comers and are guaranteed, others have some level of competition for the biggest ones).
Sorry for all the posts, but I just noticed CalMeacham reports that there was more scholarship money available for MIT as a result of being a National Merit Scholar, so perhaps I shouldn’t be too hasty in my dismissal. We didn’t see MIT on the list, but as suggested, perhaps we need to dig a little deeper. This is all new stuff for us. (And I’ll sure be glad when it’s over.)
[QUOTE=Dewey Finn]
Might I suggest that your son consider the fine engineering school located in Troy, NY as a backup?
[/QUOTE]
Why yes, you might. 
He might very well take that suggestion.
Apologies. It is just that based on the last sentence on the OP you’re already judging that this is a waste of time (for whatever reason) to prop up some program.
But what many of us are saying is that it is not as useless as you think it is, at least based on your OP. It allowed many of us to attend a decent college with little or no cost. Even in these years, some universities offer college awards, which is worth more than the $2500 you describe as peanuts.
Based on what you write, it seems like there is nothing that is outrageous, other than having to fill out more paperwork. Now, I hate paperwork, but it is not taking insanely amount out of my life that I couldn’t do it.
Why do it, if not for the money? Ivory, jacob, and I mentioned non-monetary things. It can be used as an admission factor, even with all the other material present. Prestige, proof of academic achievement, honor, all those are things that can help separate someone in a resume/college application. It can also mean entrance to special university programs (honors), where the student can receive more challenging courses or more interesting courses, first choice at registration, and even have first choice in getting undergraduate research experience, if he wishes.
As well, as per jacob mentioned, the hardest part was done, and it seems that going from semifinalist to finalist is not a crapshoot but more certain than going from nothing to semifinalist.
So, taking the monetary aspect away, from what you say, the process doesn’t seem more taxing than another application form to fill out. Tedious, but not incredibly time consuming, for a decent chance at making as a finalist. And if you get it, then you can put it in the resume and in the college applications. If accepted at college, he may be immediately be put in the honors program, and that would include some academic advantages that will follow him through undergrad and maybe beyond.
I had the same experience. I got some National Merit Scholar money, and got some other money from my school because of it. And I qualified for the honors program and to be in the honors dorm because I was a National Merit Scholar.
Also, while he’s in college, it could help him to have it on his CV. He might be competing for internships or other things where any extra thing could help make him look better, and showing National Merit Scholar is definitely a good thing to have.
I wanted to make sure you saw these posts from jacobsta811, and they say the same things from what I remember when I was in high school, that most Semi-Finalists become Finalists. I don’t know why you don’t think he has a good chance of making it.
Okay, sure … I’m interested in hearing those arguments. You make a decent case for the NMS process. I may be writing as if my mind is made up, but actually it isn’t, and I am hoping to provoke discussion of the sort you offer. Thank you.
I do still have a sneaking suspicion that this is an example of one award snowballing into another, however. Let’s set the money issue aside for a moment. As an illustration, I remember when I was in high school - I was a pretty good student, but certainly not straight-A. In the spring of my junior year, I won a statewide championship that brought honor to the school. My school then gave me the Harvard Book Award, evidently in acknowledgement of the recognition my performance brought to them (it was a private school, so these things mattered). Lo and behold, in the fall of my senior year, I got yet another honor (an invitation to National Honor Society, or some such thing - it’s been so long I don’t remember all the details, just that all of the sudden I seemed to be getting the kind of recognition that had previously eluded me, despite the fact that nothing about me had changed).
Anyway, by the time I had to apply for college I had quite a nice little line-up of honors to put on my application. And yet, all I had really done was to win that one championship, which led to the next honor, which led to the next honor …
I kind of feel like these National Merit Scholarships are the same thing. Now, if it really IS primarily about the money as opposed to some unique concept of merit that only the NMS program can divine, it makes sense: financing the education of kids with proven academic merit and a high level of achievement is most likely a good thing.
It reinforces the message- the GPA, NMS, NHS, an honors or IB diploma, SAT scores etc etc paint a well-rounded picture of the student. Top schools see thousands of applications from talented students. Their challenge is how to distinguish between one student and a another. Unique hobbies, dedication to a sport, instrument or activity, additional honors, interesting personal statement all give the admissions folks reason to look at your child twice over someone else. My daughter is Jr in high school this year, so we’re in the thick of it ourselves, and as you surmised, I’m a university faculty member so I’m not unfamiliar with the topic.
In my experience NMS is in a category of it’s own of the typical high school honors. Sure, winning the Intel Science Fair is probably a bigger one, but there aren’t a whole of other ones that all typical high school students are eligible for (everyone who takes the PSATs) that has more prestige or cache.
Maybe he can write his personal statement about the high school machine that talented students have to churn through to get through college and the impact on his life?
And a strong second shout out for RPI, if he’s thinking about engineering!
I can see it that way. I did get a “Who’s who…” award, which may have in fact come from the PSAT score that got me the NHMS award. 
It was a simple thing I added to my resume for undergrad and then didn’t use anymore. But like IvoryTowerDenizen mentioned, it is *something *to distinguish from others.
The “who’s who”, if you were going to ask, I’d say “ignore”, but not the NMS. Because that one did help me out a lot.
I was a NMS as was one of my sons. I had a 1/2 scholarship for athletics, so the NMS award money accounted for the other 1/2 of my tuition and allowed me to attend college debt free. More importantly, it put me automatically into the honors program, which afforded me smaller class sizes and more one-on-one time with instructors. My son had a full ride athletic scholarship so didn’t really need the award money, but he, too, got automatic placement into the honors program.
If your son is capable enough to be accepted at MIT, honors program placement is probably a a foregone conclusion, but as the award is known to be competitive, not just an honorarium, it is well worth your time to pursue just for the prestige it affords.
I received a National Achievement scholarship (similar program, except for the negroes). Every quarter I’d get a check for $667. Since I had a full scholarship, this money went towards books and living expenses. That was money I didn’t have to get flipping burgers or begging from parents. And I got it all four years! For once, I was able to make my twin sister jealous.
I don’t care how long the application process it. Your son needs to sit his little behind down and fill out the paperwork. Few scholarships are guaranteed. If your son loses one of his other awards (or they get reduced), at least he can count on the National Merit one. And if he decides to transfer to another school, it will go with him (I think).
I was a semi-finalist back in the day (not a finalist, curse my mediocre math scores!), but that was enough to earn me a $1000/year scholarship from my state school, back in the 70’s when that was enough to just about cover tuition for a semester. So I’ve always figured that I made $4000 for taking a 2 1/2 hour test, which means that, if you consider hourly rates, I reached my peak earning year at the tender age of 16 and it’s been all downhill since then.
As for whatever glory attaches to being a finalist or semi-finalist, I dunno. It’s something you can put on a grad school application and doesn’t look terrible on a resume.
I was a National Merit Scholar back in the late 80s and didn’t realize at the time that it was much of a big deal, but my guidance counselor sure was excited. I remember he even leaned forward and said to me “I don’t think you realize what a Big Deal this is.” Come to think of it I did get my picture in the paper with a girl from a nearby school who also won.
In my recollection the scholarship at the time was only $1500 but I could be wrong. I remember the school simply reduced my financial aid by the amount of the scholarship, so it was a wash in terms of what we had to pay which is why I might not remember the exact amount.
I don’t think I ever put it on my resume when I started working. After 30 years do you think it’s too late?
Maybe I’m missing something (happens a lot), but I don’t see anything that you need to do in particular to become a finalist. The onus appears to be on the high school to send in the transcripts, and that is about it. Possibly more work if you pass the (low) bar to become a finalist and get a school sponsored scholarship instead of the $2500 from NMSC folks, but you can cross that bridge once you see if you qualify (and if the kid’s university choices have programs for scholars).
Maybe it is a snowballing thing, and lots of students have 10 things on their resumes that basically mean they did 1 thing. But that’s how it will be for pretty much all high-achieving students. If your son is competing with those students for internships or more scholarships or whatever, he’ll stand out in a bad way if he just has the 1 thing while they have the 10 things.
It sucks and is unfair that you have to work the system, and ideally the whole education system should be overhauled, but as it is now, if you know about the system, you should work it as best as you can. And if he can just do a little bit to get all the paperwork or whatever done to be a National Merit Scholar, he should. At this point it will likely be a little work for a lot of reward.
Wow, 11 stealth-brags by my count. That may be a new record here.
Something else to consider: if he doesn’t have it on his application, most likely they’ll assume he didn’t qualify, not that he didn’t pursue the award.
There are plenty of schools that give full rides to National Merit Finalists. They aren’t necessarily top schools, but in this age of astronomical college costs it’s nothing to sneeze at. Anyone who is named a Semifinalist and has decent grades (no D’s, no more than 1 C, from what I hear) is almost certain to advance. You also have to score high enough on the SAT to show it wasn’t a fluke. My son is this year’s poster child for Semifinalists who don’t advance (he’s pretty much a lock to be a Semifinalist with his PSAT score). He made D’s in English sophomore and junior years, which is a definite no-no. Since he isn’t interested in top schools, he’ll still have options.
I was a semi-finalist 45 years ago. I don’t remember if I was a finalist or not, but I do know I didn’t get any money. But it probably did help me get into MIT, and it was considered a big thing. There were only four of us in a graduating class of near 1600.
There was definitely an application back then, the most depressing thing I’ve ever filled out. No I haven’t written any symphonies, no I don’t have any patents. Sheesh.
I don’t know if it still that big a deal today, but it can’t hurt, and it certainly could be a tie-breaker.
Wow, you can get $2500? I only got $250 per semester, grand total of $2000. (Granted, this was 30 years ago, and at a state cow college.) But, it was usually enough to pay for textbooks.
As near as I can tell, the main benefit is prestige. “National Merit Scholar” looks good on a resume, and it looks good on applications for other forms of financial aid. When I was registering for school, there were four of us, and we got to have lunch with the university president.
If you think it is chump change, skip it. But I figured, every little bit, helps.
My dughter won one in 1983. There was no application process then, you were just awarded it. But the main effect was the college she went too simply reduced her financial aid award by the amount of the scholarship (which I think was only $1000). So the honor was nice, but the college was the beneficiary. She still had to work in the kitchen.
Another thing to check is if you or your spouse works for a company or organization that awards scholarships; they’re often based on National Merit Scholarship levels. Some may be quite significant.