There’s been several values given, but EA’s keeping mostly mum on the subject, exscept to deny anything anyone says. They sort of grudgingly admitted “maybe $80 million” but that was quite some time back, and it’s not clear how honest they were being. The EA Louse blogger claimed they had budgeted something like 300 millions for the game.
EA investors are reportedly very concerned about the game. Either at 100 mill or 300, it has to be bringing in subscribers in the hundreds and the thousands.
Assume it’s a 100 mill game with 15 a month fee - generous assumptions all around. If you want to make the investment back (no profits), you need to earn 6,666,667 subscriber-months. Even if this thing magically has a million subscribers on day 1 (… improbable), you still need six months after release to make your money back. A more realistic 150,000 average subscribers could be a fiscal disaster. That doesn’t mean the game will die - as long as it’s covering the operating cost, they’ll keep it going.
And this has in development for years. If this sputters out of the gate, or starts hopefully and then falls off, it will be a massive loss. And if it actually does come in towards the 300$ mill end, that’s like flying to the Olympics with a planemade from gold and diamonds, running on a fuel supply of platinum and Nobel prizes. You either win at everything, or you’re gone. That’s why this worries me: it’s not that I think the game will or won’t be good. It’s that it has to be the most spectacular game in history, and I see nothing to suggest they’ve actually done that.
Bioware has no experience whatsoever with MMO’s, and EA’s record is all failure. I sincerely hope they’re up for it. Bioware probably won’t exist anymore if this fails: some EA manager will stick a knife into them so hard Bioware fans will wonder why we have a sharp pointy thing jutting from our chests. Of course, it would really stick it to EA, which is a very good thing.
Edit to add: one huge issue is that the project was started years ago. By years ago, I mean it got started when the MMO market was vastly different than it is now. If you want to hang with friends in an online game, you have WoW, and if your friends are on WoW, you’ll probably stay. It’s as much a social site as a game. But if not, or if you and are pals are just getting involved, you can hang around DDO, LotRO, Champions, or any of the fun and addicting Nexon properties.