Women have higher voter turnout than men, so in my experience around 52-54% of people who vote tend to be women vs 46-48% for men.
is that about the expected ratio from here on out? Does it vary from country to country?
There is no “realistic” number.
By realistic, I mean barring some weird outcome (all the men die in a war, a law is passed prohibiting men from voting, etc).
Because women have a higher voter turnout than men, is the ceiling around 55/45, or is it possible the ratio could be as high as 60/40?
In 2016, black voters made up 12% of voters. But they were 7% women, 5% men. Granted with numbers that low it could be misleading, but that means 58% of blacks who voted were women vs 42% who were men.
There are of course slightly more women than men in the adult populationm, since women (on average) live longer, so assuming a 100% turnout, the voting electoratate will be slightly more than 50% female.
After that, it’s down to turnout, and the US is characterised by generally pretty dismal turnouts. Currently women turn out at a greater rate than men, but there’s no obvious limit to this. There’s no reason why women’s tournout couldn’t get signficantly higher than now is, while men’s gets signficantly lower. I don’t see any a priori “reasonable” limit to what “significantly” might mean in either case.
well the US has an average of 48% voting while Germany has an average of 85%, so if American Women started voting like their German counterparts you would get to 64% Female and 36% male. But that would take some serious motivating factor. One would think that “grab them by the pussy” would have done it. But I guess not.
Education is one of the better predictors of voter turnout. The high school educated have about a 50% voter turnout, but college educated people have a 70-80% voter turnout.
Women’s level of education is going far beyond mens, right now women earn about 60% more bachelor degrees than men.
So just based on education, you’d assume women’s voter turnout is going to go up even more in the future due to an increasing education gap among the genders.
However attempts to overturn bans on felons from voting should in theory increase male turnout, at least a little bit.
The gap didn’t really exist in 1980, then for about 24 years it was a 2 point or so gap. Then in 2008 it jumped to a 4 point gap.
Also I don’t know how other western nations have a voter turnout around 80%. If we had that, our politics would be totally different.
Proposals for disenfranchising people with criminal histories target men more than women. Men are significantly more likely to have a criminal record. The ratio for arrests is about 3:1.
But that’s not the statistic you need to look at. What percentage of each gender has a criminal record?