What's the Moon Worth?

Cecil's Columns/Staff Reports
1

Cecil and Una have apparently never heard of Dr. David Criswell.

Dr. Criswell is Director of Space Systems Operations, University of Houston, and a member/director of the Texas Space Grant Consortium. He advocates a system to supply earth’s power needs with electricity, using solar collectors on the moon.

The system was/is viable with 1980’s technology. The idea in the present form has been around since the 70’s. It was written up in The Industrial Physicist Magazine in 2002: http://www.aip.org/tip/INPHFA/vol-8/iss-2/p12.pdf

The Pentagon has recommended the United States develop space based solar in the interest of energy security, citing dwindling oil reserves, and technical feasibility. Dr. Criswell’s system was specifically mentioned as feasible to pursue.
http://voices.yahoo.com/the-pentagon-endorses-space-based-solar-power-630242.html

As to figuring the value, a demonstration system would take a bit under ten years to build, with the capacity to deliver about half the U.S. energy requirement, and from there, scales up to supply whatever Earth can use. The system specifications are targeted to supply commercial power at rates that allow developing nations to spend no more than 10% of their GDP on all phases of commercial power.

Criswell designed the system’s energy supply cost, based on recommendations by the World Energy Council at the 18th Congress: http://www.highfrontier.org/Archive/Jt/LunarSolarPowerSystem_Criswell.pdf

Q & A with Dr. Criswell, radio show recording: http://www.thespaceshow.com/detail.asp?q=285

The system would turn profitable a few years after it was up and running. This system will actually pay for itself, without massive ongoing public subsidies.

So, since this venture is actually feasible, both financially and technically, based on average rates of 10% of GDP among developing nations, I propose that would be the minimum financial value of the moon.

Keeping it simple, what’s 10 % of the total of Earth’s GDP? There’s your baseline Moon value.

LINK TO COLUMN: What’s the moon worth? - The Straight Dope

2

What if the moon was put on ebay? Let’s pretend that the UN has decided to sell the whole moon for a lump sum and it was open to any bidders (the money would go towards starving people and militant dictator cronies). What would people pay for it?

The moon (currently) has zero economic value. I suppose the owner could charge tolls for any future countries (China?) that wanted to land someone on the moon (we’ll pretend that China is on board and would respect moon ownership). I can’t see how the owner could charge for moonlight. I assume that images of the moon are in the public domain and the owner couldn’t require royalties.

So that leaves prestige and future worth as the driver of the price. Most likely a few governments would get involved. I could imagine China wanting to own it and the US trying to barge in to prevent China from getting it. They would probably price out major corporations or loony billionaires. In the end a consortium of Western countries would buy it and pledge to keep it open, like the Antarctic.

So, what would China pay to own the moon? The Western countries would have to top that. $50 billion?

3

I wonder if it’s possible for a country to “own” the moon (as far as one can “own” a piece of property anyway which is up for dispute even on earth). For example, there is the treaty against weaponizing space. Especially right now I would bet that should the moon go up for auction, the US and China would both have bigger economic fish to fry and the moon would go to a small group of investors who mainly want a presitge piece, and would be happy to take some of the loss to say they own x% of Luna.

How would they make money? Some random ideas:

-Build a moon base with scientific observation center
-Work with Space-X and other private space programs, eventually they will want a moon landing to practice on something easy before they try other planets
-Tourism when private industry is up to snuff.
-Sleezy money laundering, the Cayman islands x10000 in terms of how greasy you can get prosecution wise.
-I wonder if you could have a commercial ship with a flag of convenience here on earth that would fly a Luna flag? They could sell rock-bottom prices for their flag of convenience, and undercut every country for pennies on the dollar. It’s almost free money isn’t it?

This is a fun thread idea, thinking about ways to monetize the moon. There was another woman in Spain who claimed ownership of the Sun, google it if you’re interested.

4

A good link on ownership of the moon:

http://www.lunarregistry.com/info/embassy.shtml

5

Welcome to the Straight Dope Message Boards, Chicago Stonepro, we’re glad you found us. For future ref, when you start a thread, it’s helpful to other readers to provide a link to the column you’re discussing. Yeah, it’s on the front page now, but in a week or so, it will slide into the Archives. So, to save searching time (and to keep us all on the same page, at least vaguely), the link is useful.

No sweat, I’ve added it for you, you’ll know for next time. And, as I say, welcome!

6

I am surprised and dismayed that Cecil failed to consult this biography while writing this column.

7

Since Luna’s tidal influence is key to the development of life on Earth, its value is incalculable. It necessarily belongs to everyone and no one.

It’s like asking what the Pacific Ocean is worth. Or Asia.

8

For what it’s worth, this concept in fusion electricity generation is probably as close as any of them.

And yes, I acknowledge they have 4,832,142,668 technical problems to solve, not to mention the policy issues, but the idea of using discrete fusion reactions instead of a sustained reaction does have a very high cleverness factor.

9

I thought when I clicked the link to respond to the article, a link would be created for the thread. I guess I was wrong.

Thanks for both, the heads-up, and the welcome.

10

Dr. Criswell’s idea isn’t TOO hairbrained, but it has a hard time competing with such down-to-earth energy generation as, say, coal, oil or gas.

When coal runs out, we might turn to the moon. Oh, unless solar collectors and wind generators on the earth get a little more efficient. What are the chances of that?

“What’s the Moon worth?” reminds me of the old joke, “What’s a Grecian Urn?”

11

The question was about economic value of the moon, not aesthetic.

Real estate speculation is out of the question, as pointed out above, referencing the Outer Space Treaty.

Mineral exploitation isn’t anywhere near practical, as pointed out by Cecil and others. Helium 3, if exploited, could be used immediately in bomb making, to increase the power, decrease the weight, and “improve” the range of nuclear munitions. I can maybe see this as strategic for say, China, but not in the next 20 years, and again, not a near-practical way to economically value the moon.

On the other hand, the Lunar Solar Power system is could have been built already. As for competing with coal, oil, gas, solar, wind, it competes just fine. Those analyses are available at the World Energy Council link I cited.

Solar Power Via the Moon isn’t hare-brained at all.

Japan’s biggest construction firm, after the Fukishima disaster, announced a plan to build such a system. According to them, the engineering will take eight to ten years. They’ve already started on it.

Unfortunately, their system would include laser transmission, and the cost per kilowatt would put the electricity transmitted out of reach of much of the developing world.

Cecil was trying to come up with something more tangible to use, to hang a practical money value on. He’s right, today there’s nothing practical. However, there IS something in the foreseeable, not too distant future.

12

Personally, I’d prefer that the U.S. would wake up and implement Criswell’s version of the LSP system. It’s better technically and economically. Besides, it’s a U.S. idea - the U.S. should build it, and have majority control over it.

Electricity world-wide, at no more than 10% of world GDP.

Someone help me out on the math here.

13

Good ol Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product

Depending on how you slice it, world GDP, also known as gross world product - GWP - was either 70 trillion or 80 trillion dollars U.S. (approx.) for 2011.

So, at 10%, the economic value of the moon would be seven or eight trillion dollars U.S., plus maybe 4% by the end of 2012.

Well, maybe not. That’s just the annual cash flow, which includes the profit. It’s merely the simplest number one could put to the value of the moon.

When you separate power production from the biosphere, and make it comparatively too expensive to burn fossil fuels, or spit atoms, significant cost savings add to the moon’s value.

Think human health impacts, environmental clean-up costs, nuclear site and uranium mine decommissioning costs, etc.

By the way, the power it takes to build, decommission, store the waste from, and decommission the supply quarries to, each nuclear power plant is almost equal to - and in some cases more than - the power generated by the plant during its lifetime. Getting electricity from the moon gives us net new energy to use to actually decommission our nuclear systems.

Someone please help me out with the math here.

14

I have indeed been hearing about proposals for beamed microwave power since the 1970s. It will never happen. The costs will always be more than what the proponents claim and the profits less. And the potential dangers will scare the pants off of everybody, just as they have for the past 40 years. If you think people are hysterical about nuclear power plants, try selling them on power from space.

Every wild scheme has diehard backers, who can never understand why other people are so opposed. This is one of hundreds. None of them have ever hit the mass market. Ask yourself why.

15

Greetings pathetic Earth-dwellers.

It is I, Dr. Evil, broadcasting to you from my top-secret “Death Star” orbiting the Moon. It is a space station equipped with the largest light amplification by stimulated emission of radiation device (or “LASER”) in the known universe.

From my top secret “Death Star” lair I have been observing your discussion related to the value of the Moon. And it seems to me that you value this particular rock to a rather large degree, but cannot seem to agree on its value. Well fear not, I will solve your dilemma for you.

I will blow up the Moon with my “LASER” if you do not give me ONE HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS.

Peace out.

16

Do you accept Visa?

17

Do you really have to ask? Everybody knows Big Oil bought up all the patents!

18

Folks used to say much the same things as Exapno Mapcase, about using steam to get things done.

A bit earlier, folks used to get really upset if you didn’t agree with them that the earth was the center of the universe.

Earlier than that, folks believed if you sailed too far out on the ocean, you’d fall off the edge. You’d be considered rather ignorant and foolhardy if you disagreed.

Here we are again. :smack:

19

Somehow, argument along the lines of “Lot’s of people think it’s impractical - therefore it must be practical” isn’t very convincing.

20

Even if it were privately owned, its tidal influence would be much the same as it is today.