Well, I worked in theatrical distribution for a large movie studio for over 10 years and have workd for some small distributiors, so I guess I’m the cloeset to an ‘expert’ you are going to get.
Deciding how to distribute a film is huge deal. What date it will open, the number of theatres, the number of screens, are all seen as extremely important decisions. The wider you open a film, wider being number of screens or locations, the cost of that opening will escalate. National media campains cost a lot more than targeted campains to a few select markets. So you can run a newspaper and, thanks to cable tv, run very targets television ads and really do well in your ‘select’ theatres.
There is a huge database on theatres, movies and their grosses. Kind of like baseball stats. For instance the Jesse James movie movie mentioned.
It is
Rated R for some strong violence and brief sexual references
It stars Brad Pitt as it’s major star.
It’s a western.
You can look up to see how other Rate R Western movies opened and compare those openings of ‘this’ weekend to ‘that’ weekend. Or Rated R Brad Pitt movies. Or movies that were just rated R for some strong violence and brief sexual references.
You can compare the grosses that the AMC theatre had verses the Landmark, verses the Cinemark theatre in the same market and say we want the Landmark in Seattle (north side) and the Cinemark on the eastside. Then your sales department fights to get those locations. So it is well known within the industry, which theatres do well with which product. This place may be an ‘action house’ and this place may do better with adult fare, and yes, some places are know to do well with ‘Christian’ movies.
Is your star going to be available/willing to do the talk show circuit the week before you open is another question that can affect the decisons on when to open a movie.
A film like In the Shadow of the Moon is really affect by print costs. It costs about 5K, on average to make one physical print of movie. Digital prints can actually be more expensive. They aren’t just buring DVDs when they do that. Shipping a digital print is much cheeper for the distribution company but of course, not all screens or locations have the ability to do a digital print. So if you make 10 prints or of you are making 3000 prints, you can see where the cost of prints and shipping really add up quickly. So you have to really question, can this theatre gross enough so that over opening weekend it will pay enough rental to cover the print cost. That is frequently the goal, to cover the print cost on opening weekend. Now for a film like Shadow of the Moon, well, you can make a few prints, show it here, ship it to another location and show it there, and move it and ship it again because it is not like a film like Shreck 3, where you make the vast majority of the gross on the opening weekend. They have the luxury of showing in only a few theatres at a time and really, if you opened it in all the theatres it ultimately plays in at the same time, it probably won’t make any difference on the gross, but it will make a difference on the profits because it is cheeper to release it slowly.
So a tentpole release, or some really hyped movie, tries to open as wide as it can, on a good weekend at the appropriate theaters. They are out to maximise the opening weekend gross so they cast a wide net.
This time of year, there will be movies that open limited, hoping to build critical reviews and word of mouth from audiences. Someone can see a film in Rochester NY, talk about how great it is on a message board and spread WOM really well. One reason for that is that a lot of movies are opening wide. Like half a dozen each week. That makes doing business very tough. So the open limited and hold at those locations is one strategey that can work. Of course if the audience doesn’t think you film is very good, then you’re screwed.
