Heard a faintly terrifying documentary on the radio last night that covered, in part, the practical mechanism for Greece withdrawing from the euro. The point they were making was that there is no pull-out mechanism, no procedure, because the people who invented this thing didn’t ever consider it would happen.
From the moment the monetary changeover would be mentioned by the Greek parliament, there would likely be a full-scale run on every Greek bank as people with euros in them would want to get hold of them and transfer them to non-Greek banks to preserve them as euros before conversion to a currency that would inevitably drop through the floor - something that was relatvely difficult to do from within Argentina, but trivially easy within the EU.
And that with this in mind the run has actually already started, but only as a trickle from amongst the financially savvy.
Thus any announcement that there would be a pull-out would necessarily have to be made simultaneously with an enforced suspension of all the banks. Result: more riots.
It takes the biggest private mint in the world - which is in the UK - four months to print up new currency (a situation that was tested with the new Iraq currency). So such a thing would have to be done in private four months before any decision was announced. It may already be being done, either to herald an announcement, or as contingency.
An alternative would be to mark ‘Greek’ euro bills, but they tried using stickers during the Velvet Revolution to distinguish the same currency between the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and the value of Slovak notes fell immediately, and enterprising Slovaks found ways to get rid of the stickers to turn them back into higher value Czech notes. (I was thinking that maybe a very complex hole punch could do the same thing.)
Even after the dust settled - if it ever did - the private sector would also be up shit creek because of the massive intertwining of business within the EU economic zone. What would happen to the debts owed in euros to non-Greek companies? The resulting litigation could go on for decades.
So were Greece to pull out of the euro, the economy would collapse anyway, the public sector paying money that would be worth jack shit, the private sector embroiled in unpayable debts. Things would possibly be worse than under current austerity rules, but it doesn’t look like Greece can come up with its first bail-out repayment, even with the legislation passed yesterday.
IMO we’re looking at mass disorder, hyperinflation, martial law. The Zimbabwe of Europe. Scary shit.
And then a possible domino effect beginning with Portugal and ending who knows where?
It also mentioned in passing that 48% of “the young” however you define that are unemployed, so there’s your pool of rioters right there, whatever their reasons, justifiable or not.