I’ll address your other points later, but this bears an immediate reply.
XT, the last thing Hezbollah wants is a settlement of the disputed Shebaa Farm lands. Think about it.
Also, the negotiated return of soldiers or other prisoners is sop between these parties. Do you really believe that is what prompted the Israeli reaction?
As I said to your friend Finn, we might be arguing at cross purposes - especially if these are your core assumptions about the current conflict.
I shall await with hopeful anticipation. 
thinks about it No, I can’t say this is the last thing they want. Whether or not this is so, its their STATED terms for something approaching a perminent ceasefire (no, I don’t believe that either…nor do I think Israel should give it to them in any case). So…its sort of a moot observation IMO.
Well, those rocket thingies flying into Israel are certainly part of it as well. Of COURSE its what prompted Israel’s action…obviously, since by doing so they sparked this conflict. Now, one could ask if this is some isolated incident that caused Israel to fly off the handle, or perhaps part of a pattern…and one Israel finally said they had had enough of. I would have to go with the latter…Israel is using this recent attack on them to send a message that the status quo is no longer acceptable and that they want HB perminently out of southern Lebanon. Did you not see that was the other part of what I said they wanted? I never claimed (as you seem to be implying…maybe an oversight on your part or I’m reading too much here) that returning the soldiers on its own would be enough. Nor should it be…IMHO. YMMV.
Its possible, but if so its because your own position or what you are attempting to debate is unclear…at least to me. I’m unsure if you clearly understand both whats currently going on and the full history behind this conflict, and if you clearly understand exactly what my ‘core assumptions’ are wrt this issue as well. Again, I’m not being snarky here. If you have some question about what my core assumptions are wrt the history of the conflict or what is currently going on, feel free to detail exactly what you are looking for from me. You may be better served though in coming right out and laying out YOUR position on all this…as, to me at least, its a bit murky.
-XT
How is understanding your opponent moot?
What I asked you to think about: If the land dispute is settled, Hezbollah loses its claim as a resistance force. Do you think they want that? I don’t, based on the fact that they already have a foothold as a socio-political force in Lebanon, with room for growth. In other words, they can go completely legit at this point. And yet, they resist integration of the militia end into the Lebanese military. Why?
I’m really asking. I’d like to discuss this, rather than put forward pre-chewed talking points (in spite of what your friend keeps implying).
I didn’t say that understanding your opponent is moot. It certainly isn’t. I said that the observation is moot. What did I mean by that? Whether or not HB ACTUALLY wants the territory (and I think they do), their stated goals are in fact to get them. Speculating on whether or not its all they want (it probably isn’t) is moot…we have to take their demand at face value, since this is one of the core demands they make for something resembling a perminent ceasefire. Again, put this in context to what we are discussing here.
I don’t think its the ‘last thing’ Hezbollah wants, as you put it…I’d say the LAST thing they would want is to be driven completely out of Southern Lebanon, or disbanded as a paramilitary force.
I also don’t think it would make quite the difference you seem to THINK it will make if they manage to get Israel to cave in and give this back to Lebanon would be a HUGE coup for HB across the board. Think about the levels here. Not only a thumb in the arch-enemy Israel’s eye, in complete view of the Arab World. But also a thumb in the US’s eye (who has supported Israel’s claim to that land) AND even in the UN’s eye who has, if not supported Israel’s claim to the land, sided with them wrt to it being formerly SYRIAN land taken during the '67 war. IOW, HB would have triumphed over…well, everyone on this issue, in full world view and brought home the golden bacon. On a silver plater. Um…maybe not bacon literally, but you get the point.
Having done this, you think they would be seriously worried about losing support for their paramilitary wing?? Even if by some strange chance Lebanon decides that its time for HB to hang em up on the military side ( :dubious: !!) why do you suppose the gravy train from Syria and Iran would stop just because the farms changed hands? Hell, this would probably cause a FLOOD of support, and not just from those find friends.
And its not an either/or proposition you seem to be making it. They are ALREADY legit…in Lebanon. I would guess that the Lebanese would go wild over this, so their political wing would probably go from being a minority to perhaps a majority. Large percentages of the Arab World™ would ALSO be wild about this victory over the forces of darkness, and I imagine nutballs and hotheads from all corners would be begging to join up. With more funds and even more political power they COULD become a power to be reckoned with in dem dar parts…both politically AND paramilitarily (and lets not forget the whole ‘terrorist’ thing, ehe).
The thing you seem to be leaving out of your calculations is that these groups somehow need legitimacy or something. They don’t. They only need funding and the support of the local populations…local populations that have been trained for literally generations to hate and fear Israel. If Israel gives back that land (to Lebanon…might be different if they hand it back to Syria) it will show weakness on their part…why do you presume that Israel showing weakness would be responded to by peace and the disbanding of the successful paramilitary organization that FORCED them to that weakness?
I think he’s made some good points to be honest, both here and especially in other related threads…and I will freely admit that his own knowledge on this subject surpasses my own. That said, above is my thoughts…do with them as you will.
-XT
We have a couple people who absolutely reject any and all arguments that even suggest Israel could have done some wrong. They have admitted to targeting the infrastructure. Briges,roads,factories etc. Is it impossible to think maybe a civilian wanderered into this area. They are killing innocent Lebonese. Plain and simple. Are they killing Hezbollah. I suppose. They dont wear unis and it is hard to tell. I do know both sides will propagandize the hell out of it. They will both say taking human life is justified and even honorable.
The war did not start 2 weeks ago. It just flared up. The Irraelies and Hezbollah have been skirmaging for years. This wont end it. If you were a Lebanese citizen and your cities were being destroyed ,there would be no way to make it right. Their families are dying and their towns are destroyed. How can you tell some poor person just trying to get by,like we all are, that she should accept her families death because somewhere in Israel somebody decided it was the right thing to do.
Originally ,Israel had some backing in parts of the middle east. But, the ferocity and duration of their actions have turned many away. remember if you do believe it started 2 weeks ago ,then the destruction if cities, death of hundreds and countless injuries is in response to 2 deaths and 2 kidnapped. Do you feel for those that bleed at all.
Leaving aside the fact that you’ve trotted this same line out myriad times in multiple threads and have yet to back any of it up, I’d like to beat my head against the wall once more and ask about something here.
Um…yes? Who backed them in the ME originally? I don’t seem to recall this…perhaps you could enlighten us all?
Yeah, I know what you mean. It DOES tend to bum people out when you don’t roll over and die like they were supposed to. How many wars of aggression were launched against them to this end? Oh, thats right! :smack: Israel is the evil one. I keep forgetting…
Of course I do. I think its a stupid waste. The fucking Lebanese should KNOW better than to do this shit. HB should be ashamed of themselves for continueing to do this shit. I used to feel bad and bleed for the folks in Ireland as well…but I realized that feeling bad and bleeding for them wouldn’t solve anything. The stupid stuborn bastards would just have to kill each other until finally someone realized it was all a stupid, horrible waste.
I bleed for the Israeli’s who have to put up with this shit year after year, decade after decade living in fear that some nutcase with delusions of paradise will strap on some explosives and walk into a cafe or board a bus, or some maniacs will launch rockets at Israel at the bidding of their proxy masters who are safe and snug (well, I suppose the Lebanese ones aren’t feeling that was atm) back home. I feel bad for the poor deluded and deceived Palestinians, betrayed by their Arab buddies and royally fucked over all around, who have nothing but hate and poverty to look forward too. And finally I bleed for the decades more that this stupid shit will continue until (hopefully) these fools will find a path where they can let it go and just accept that Israel is there to stay…its time to move on and accomodate that reality and work with it.
Obviously I’m a romantic at heart…
-XT
Are we all so ignorant to believe that these civilians are lining up behind these terrorists while they lob rockets into Israel?
Seriously, do people really buy the line that civilians, families, are sitting there while rockets are launched from the apartment next door? Anybody with half a brain is getting the fuck away from a terrorist rocket launch. Families are not enjoying a picnic nearby away terrorist launch area. And do you think that when a launch has occured anywhere near a person they hang around?! Have 750 civilians really been stupid enough to sit by while nextdoor neighbor Akbar and company fire away?!
Sure, a few have been “opps, somebody drove into target area”. The majority have been, “civilians in target area… Firing… Direct hit… Good work boys.”
While I don’t think the civilians are lining up, blah blah blah, I do believe that some folks have no choice…and no where to go, no options but to stay where they are. Some, as I said, have no where to go…or no resources in order TOO flee. Some may be caught while fleeing in transit. Some may have medical problems, etc, that prevent them from being able to flee.
In addition, there are always some who choose to ride out the storm, no matter how bad it goes.
One other thing here. Contrary to the wild eyed claims of some, the entire country isn’t being ravaged in some kind of Israeli scorched earth thingy. In fact MOST of the country isn’t being devastated(or there would be a hell of a lot more casualties than whats been reported thus far). So, a lot of people may be in pockets that have been quiet, in towns that have not seen much fighting…until some mopes in a pickup truck with a rocket launcher welded to the back drive up and park next to your house and decide to fire a few missiles into Israel.
I don’t believe this is the case, no. I think most of the civilian casualties have been (reasonably) accurately reported AS civilian casualties (instead of, as you seem to be implying, HB killed reported as ‘civilians’), and that the vast majority of them have been fuckups or people who simply are in the wrong place at the wrong time.
-XT
If the civilians are disabled children, they have no choice.
"Anti-Syrian elements in Lebanon openly point finger at Hizbullah as guilty of killing of dozens of civilians in order to curtail plans for disarming group. ‘Hizbullah has placed rocket launcher on building’s roof and brought invalid children inside in bid to provoke Israeli response.’
‘Disabled children placed inside building’
…
The site’s editors also claimed that not only did Hizbullah stage the event, but that it also chose Qana for a specific reason: “They used Qana because the village had already turned into a symbol for massacring innocent civilians, and so they set up ‘Qana 2’.” Notably, the incident has indeed been dubbed “The second Qana massacre” by the Arab media.
From a Lebanese site:
I hope that those reports are wrong, exaggerations or propaganda…but I have to admit I wouldn’t be surprised if this weren’t exactly what they were doing. If not deliberately (i.e. by actually staging the things by actually inserting innocent civilians then deliberately provoking an attack), then I think there is good evidence that at the least it factors into their calculations when they position their military assets to stage attacks into Israel. 
-XT
One would imagine that Hezbollah would want to minimize the danger to its non combatents, and that they would have evacuated anyone regardless of whether they are crippled - after all thousands have /driven/ out of the area.
Only a cynic would consider it possible that they are deliberately setting up photo opportunities.
It is curious, they may be raising the ire of some Arabs, which is difficult to do since it has been maxed out for some time, but they are making themselves look pretty ruthless to everyone else.
Why? Why do you suppose Hezbollah would want to minimize the danger to non-combatants?
I don’t think its so much photo OPs as the vast potential propaganda coup they score every time civilians are killed by Israel…especially when, as unfortunately happened earlier this week, an entire building full of children was struck and many children and other civilians killed.
Its not a huge stretch to see that HB might be ruthless enough to stage such a thing…though probably its more a matter of selecting the sites they plan to fire from with the potential that IF they are seen and engaged that there is a possibility of colateral civilian deaths…especially if the weapon is off target. I don’t think one needs be a cynic to see this…just a realist.
I don’t think that anyone, even folks in Lebanon, would be surprised that HB is ruthless, or capable of attempting to shield themselves by fighting among the civilian population. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t more pissed about the fact that Israel fired the weapons than by the fact that HB used the people as shields by firing rockets at Israel while in proximity to civilians.
-XT
There was a degree of sarcasm in my post. :-}
Rather a lot of people in Lebanon are not having weapons fired at them
I’m rather at a loss to see what Israel can do, if they stop attacking S Lebanon, the Katyushas will keep coming in.
Of course I reckon that Israel could see this coming for some time.
I am pretty sure that I heard something about Israel evacuating some refugees … to Israel, probably I was half asleep at the time.
It has just struck me that it would be a neat move to get UN forces to evacuate non combatents out of S Lebanon and into say Syria.
Obviously the UN forces would be vulnerable to suicide kids, but that would be good PR for Israel.
Curiously Hezbollah are much more of a threat to the rest of Lebanon than to Israel, my hunch is that non Hezbollah Lebanese are praying that Israel will carpet bomb the area.
Sorry, its very late here and I’m running on empty. Only reason I’m still posting is I’m dead tired and waiting for a server to initialize and have nothing better to do…and its keeping me awake. 
At this point I don’t think Israel would be interested in going back to the status quo in any case, so even if HB stopped firing rockets I don’t think Israel is prepared at this time to stop. I think their goal is basically the perminent removal of HB paramilitary units from Southern Lebanon.
I doubt the Lebanese see it that way (i.e. that HB is actually the threat and who has brought all this on), and I seriously doubt that many of them are praying for carpetbombing. They have a completely different prespective on all this stuff after all, one filtered through decades of anti-Israeli propaganda, revisionist history, and even somewhat the realities of the first occupation and the periodic border skirmishes. The Lebanese were seriously scarred by that war with Israel and the civil war that followed, by the occupation, etc, and so naturally have a different view of both HB and Israel…and even their own government.
-XT
I know - sorry about your A/C and server problems
I agree, although I reckon that they are hopeing for total removal of Hezbollah from /all/ Lebanon.
Difficult one that, the other Lebonese consist of Maronite Christians, Druze and Sunni Muslims, none of whom are particularly fond of Hezbollah.
Apart from a few slums, Lebanon is reputed to be rather a relaxed and liberal place. A convenient fleshpot for visitors from more rigid Middle Eastern residents.
I think it was 1982 when Maronites massacred about 1000 Palestinian refugee women and children. I don’t see that happening again, but I can see Hezbollah being declared an illegal organization, evicted from the government and conveniently shot while resisting arrest.
There is a possibility that Syrians and Iranians could be found amongst the combatants, which would be rather handy.
That some of you are in deep denial and no matter the evidence provided, you’ll continue to defend Israel’s actions no matter what they are.
To wit: Rights group slams Israel for bombing civilians
Denial: not just a river in Egypt.
Then again, no doubt HRW is a pinko-commie organization and Reuters some left-wing blog…
Iranian connection
Hezbollah prides itself on being a Lebanese movement, but it also has strong connections to Iran.
Instructors from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have spent long periods in Lebanon, notably in the Bekaa Valley, teaching Hezbollah cadres how to use their weaponry. Likewise, Hezbollah fighters have reportedly spent time in Iran undergoing military training.
One of the most effective weapons deployed by Hezbollah in this conflict has been the Iranian-made C-802 anti-ship missile. A variant of the Chinese Silkworm missile, one of these was successfully fired at an Israeli warship last month, killing four people onboard and severely damaging the vessel.
The Israeli military appears to have been taken by surprise by the attack and now believes that Iranian advisers from the IRGC were present at the launch of the missile.
One of Israel’s major concerns, which has a bearing on the terms of any UN-brokered ceasefire agreement, is that once the fighting stops then Iran will replenish Hezbollah’s arsenal of missiles via Damascus and the Syrian-Lebanese border.
And guess what?
Iran’s Ahmadinejad has just said that : “Israel’s elimination is the cure for the conflict”
Then again, no doubt the BBC and Aljazeera are right-wing Israel supporters…
You sound like a broken record. You also have still failed to state exactly what you are debating here. You simply post stuff then say ‘you are in denial!’ blah blah blah.
I guess its up to me to figure out what the hell you are trying to debate by sifting the clues. Hm…lets look at the quotes you posted from your HRW cite:
For myself, I’d like to see some proof backing this claim up before I swallow it whole. You seem to have done so already, but thats no great surprise considering, but I’m skeptical of such claims…and I’m pretty skeptical of this group, who I think has their own political axes to grind especially wrt Israel.
Anyone know if they have issued similary scathing statements condemning Lebanon and Hezbollah for, say, the easily provable action of deliberately firing rockets at Israeli civilians?
This sounds to me either agenda driven or totally lacking in even a basic understanding of the IDF’s capabilities (hell, of ANY militaries capabilities, of the success/failure and hit rate of the various weapons systems, etc) or the actual situation on the ground, where Hezbollah is fighting what ammounts to a guerilla war from the midst of a civilian population…with both fighters and non-combatants being of the exact same nationality.
You are right about one thing though Red…‘Denial: not just a river in Egypt’.
-XT
Here’s a different take on the Qana situation. I have no prior experience with The Aisian Tribune, I don’t know if they will pass muster as a cite here. They mention damning pictures, but they don’t have any pictures posted.
Thats an interesting read, no doubt. I wonder how reliable that all is though. I’ve never heard of Asian Tribune, nor do I have a familiarity with the Herald Sun. They didn’t link any of these pictures purportedly showing Hezbollah assets in and around civilian buildings (though I’ve seen some from other sources).
-XT