What's the story on the rockets fired into Israel?

[Placid_Liver]

[QUOTE=Larry Borgia]
Were any of the Hezbollah missiles fired into Israel before the incursion?
[/QUOTE]

Yes, around last November a friend of mine was working on a kibbutz near the Lebanese border, and he used to write and tell me about the katyushas falling in the fields. It seemed like there were a couple a week, but because of their unguided nature didn’t cause much physical damage, though psychologically it can’t be much fun for small communities to wonder if maybe the next time they’re outside something will drop out the sky onto them.

Since the ranges of the missiles have been extended to reach more populated areas, and the frequency of the attacks increased, the random firing can no longer be tolerated. I don’t think the current strategy is a very good one though. On the same day Olmert was claiming great success for the war so far, more rockets then ever before fell on Haifa.

[Samiorange]

[QUOTE=xtisme]
Thats an interesting read, no doubt. I wonder how reliable that all is though. I’ve never heard of Asian Tribune, nor do I have a familiarity with the Herald Sun. They didn’t link any of these pictures purportedly showing Hezbollah assets in and around civilian buildings (though I’ve seen some from other sources).

-XT
[/QUOTE]
The Herald Sun is a Rupert Murdoch tabloid. Photos, supposedly smuggled out by one who wishes to remain nameless, available here:

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,,19955774-5007220,00.html

This version of Qana has been making the rounds via right-wing blogs and radio in the US, and neocon backed anti-Syrian christian groups in the ME and EU.

I was curious about something - Haaretz scrubbed an earlier version of a Qana story, but I found it in google cache:

Israeli rights group urges PM to order probe of Qana attack

The Association for Civil Rights in Israel Tuesday urged Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to establish a state commission of inquiry into the killing of dozens of civilians in an Israeli air strike Sunday in the village of Qana in southern Lebanon.

As the Israel Air Force continues to investigate the air strike, questions have been raised over military accounts of the incident.

It now appears that the military had no information on rockets launched from the site of the building, or the presence of Hezbollah men at the time.

The Israel Defense Forces had said after the deadly air-strike that many rockets had been launched from Qana. However, it changed its version on Monday.

The site was included in an IAF plan to strike at several buildings in proximity to a
previous launching site. Similar strikes were carried out in the past.
However, there were no rocket launches from Qana on the day of the strike.

My underlining. I wonder which version people will remember.

[Samiorange]

By the way, XT, I appreciate your earlier reply. I’m sorry I missed you last night, but I was stuck with work myself. I’ll chew on it now.

[Duke_of_Rat]

I saw it when it popped up in the Google News links to related stories. Sounded a bit biased, I wondered if there was anything to it. I’m not familiar with Haaretz, either.

[Samiorange]

@xtisme

I didn’t say that understanding your opponent is moot. It certainly isn’t. I said that the observation is moot. What did I mean by that? Whether or not HB ACTUALLY wants the territory (and I think they do), their stated goals are in fact to get them. Speculating on whether or not its all they want (it probably isn’t) is moot…we have to take their demand at face value, since this is one of the core demands they make for something resembling a perminent ceasefire. Again, put this in context to what we are discussing here.

I’d never take demands at face value in a negotiation, especially in the ME, but obviously YMMV.

@xtisme

I also don’t think it would make quite the difference you seem to THINK it will make if they manage to get Israel to cave in and give this back to Lebanon would be a HUGE coup for HB across the board. Think about the levels here. Not only a thumb in the arch-enemy Israel’s eye, in complete view of the Arab World. But also a thumb in the US’s eye (who has supported Israel’s claim to that land) AND even in the UN’s eye who has, if not supported Israel’s claim to the land, sided with them wrt to it being formerly SYRIAN land taken during the '67 war. IOW, HB would have triumphed over…well, everyone on this issue, in full world view and brought home the golden bacon. On a silver plater. Um…maybe not bacon literally, but you get the point.

Yes, I get your point, but I think HB has already won the perception war regarding weakness and saving face. I don’t advocate that Israel appear weak - they’ve done that themselves by the way this campaign was managed. For me, it’s a given that the stronger party can afford to offer concessions in a negotiation without it coming across as weakness, but maybe more hawkish types see it differently.

@xtisme

And its not an either/or proposition you seem to be making it. They are ALREADY legit…in Lebanon. I would guess that the Lebanese would go wild over this, so their political wing would probably go from being a minority to perhaps a majority. Large percentages of the Arab World™ would ALSO be wild about this victory over the forces of darkness, and I imagine nutballs and hotheads from all corners would be begging to join up. With more funds and even more political power they COULD become a power to be reckoned with in dem dar parts…both politically AND paramilitarily (and lets not forget the whole ‘terrorist’ thing, ehe).

The thing you seem to be leaving out of your calculations is that these groups somehow need legitimacy or something. They don’t. They only need funding and the support of the local populations…

That is the definition of legitimacy, isn’t it? But legit in Lebanon or ME isn’t the same as legit on the world stage (western powers). I’m not married to my theories though - let’s see how it plays out with the terms of the ceasefire.

[Samiorange]

[QUOTE=Duke of Rat]
I saw it when it popped up in the Google News links to related stories. Sounded a bit biased, I wondered if there was anything to it. I’m not familiar with Haaretz, either.
[/QUOTE]
There’s always a certain amount of bias and propaganda in the media, especially during a military conflict. That applies to both sides (or however many interests are involved). IMO, it’s best to keep your knees loose and your mind open.

[RedFury]

@xtime

For myself, I’d like to see some proof backing this claim up before I swallow it whole. You seem to have done so already, but thats no great surprise considering, but I’m skeptical of such claims…and I’m pretty skeptical of this group, who I think has their own political axes to grind especially wrt Israel.

But of course you are (skeptical) – how dare anyone criticize Israel!

Proof, you say? No problem.

Fatal Strikes Israel’s Indiscriminate Attacks Against Civilians in Lebanon

Highly detailed and cited report.

[RedFury]

BTW, they also indict Hezbollah for war crimes. And I agree.

Having a hard time finding the good guys between this bunch of extrememists on either side.

[enipla]

Looks like some footage from Israeli drones before air-strikes on HB missile launchers.

These launchers are located in cities/towns and shoot and scoot. Hide in buildings and such.

one

two

three

four

Too tired and too much to do any commentary, but I thought everyone should see this.

[RedFury]

Geeeze, Finn!!
You managed to watch all of six minutes of a two hour documentary – contrary to your views – and thus have all you need in order to tear it apart? Congratulations, brainiac.

But please, don’t do me any favors. Reminds me of all the people tearing into Moore’s 9/11 documentary without having seen it.

Too silly to bother responding any further.

[Spezza]

[QUOTE=xtisme]
One other thing here. Contrary to the wild eyed claims of some, the entire country isn’t being ravaged in some kind of Israeli scorched earth thingy. In fact MOST of the country isn’t being devastated(or there would be a hell of a lot more casualties than whats been reported thus far). So, a lot of people may be in pockets that have been quiet, in towns that have not seen much fighting…until some mopes in a pickup truck with a rocket launcher welded to the back drive up and park next to your house and decide to fire a few missiles into Israel.

-XT
[/QUOTE]

You say this as somebody completely disassociated with the event. The country is being devastated, remember the initial strikes against infrastructure? Those affect the entire country. When bridges, roads, airports! are destroyed the entire country feels the affects, whether directly or indirectly.

Secondly, even if you are in a “non-affected” area of the country, you probably know somebody who has been directly affected by the destruction. Family members losing houses, limbs, or lives. Friends losing houses, limbs, or lives. You really think that just because a person’s house hasn’t been destroyed they aren’t terribly resentful of being attacked like this? Here is a before and after image of a Beruit neighborhood. If you think attacks like this aren’t designed to kill civilians…

This policy only drives people closer to the groups who are at least extracting retailation for the destruction of their country. We shouldn’t ignore this principal fact. Have we all forgotten what the bombing campaigns of WWII did to civilian morale?!

[FinnAgain]

[QUOTE=Spezza]
When bridges, roads, airports! are destroyed the entire country feels the affects, whether directly or indirectly.
[/quote]

It also makes it much harder for fresh troops and ordinance! to be moved in.

[QUOTE=Spezza]
Here is a before and after image of a Beruit neighborhood. If you think attacks like this aren’t designed to kill civilians…
[/quote]

If you think that attacks like that are designed to kill civilians, how do you explain any two stones still standing together? Is Israel just totally incompetent? Are they reading a copy of Genocide for Dummies?

Which is more likely, that Hezbollah hides in civilian areas and holds families hostage while firing rockets from their homes, or that Israel really wants to kill Lebanese civilians but is doing so at a rate that would take over 300 years with Lebanon’s current population?

[QUOTE=Spezza]

Have we all forgotten what the bombing campaigns of WWII did to civilian morale?!
[/QUOTE]

Or what the bombing of German industry did to the German capability to fuel their war machine?

[Spezza]

[QUOTE=FinnAgain]
Or what the bombing of German industry did to the German capability to fuel their war machine?
[/QUOTE]

Yes, because in 1944 German industry produced more than it had in any previous year.

[Malthus]

[QUOTE=Spezza]

This policy only drives people closer to the groups who are at least extracting retailation for the destruction of their country. We shouldn’t ignore this principal fact. Have we all forgotten what the bombing campaigns of WWII did to civilian morale?!
[/QUOTE]

Wake me up when Israel starts using WW2-style city bombardment tactics in Lebanon. :dubious:

[FinnAgain]

[QUOTE=Spezza]
Yes, because in 1944 German industry produced more than it had in any previous year.
[/QUOTE]

And certainly it would have been able to produce even less with the additional sites which were destroyed. It all makes perfect sense!

[

The addition of an Italian front made the rollback of German forces on all fronts that much more likely. In the Soviet Union, German forces were stretched across 2,500 miles (4,000 km). They had lost their air superiority when Allied bombing raids on German cities forced the withdrawal of large numbers of fighter planes. British and American bombings reached a high point in midsummer when a raid on Hamburg killed 40,000 of its inhabitants. Similar air raids killed hundreds of thousands of German civilians and leveled large areas of most German cities. Shortages of food, clothing, and housing began to afflict German cities as inevitably as did the Allied bombers.

The rollback of German forces continued inexorably during 1944. On June 6 the Allies in the west launched their invasion of France across the English Channel. In the east the Soviet army was advancing along the entire 2,500-mile front. By the end of the year, it stood poised on the eastern frontiers of prewar Germany. In the west, British and American troops stood ready to attack across the western borders.

On the German home front, 1944 became a year of acute suffering. On July 20, officers carried out a plot, part of a long-simmering opposition to Hitler from within German military and civilian circles, but Hitler managed to escape the dramatic attempt on his life practically unharmed.

](http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-58212 )

Yeah, sounds like '44 was a good year to be a Nazi.

But of course, analogies are always more helpful than talking about the actual situation. And even though Lebanon is a completely different nation, with completely different dynamics, and completely different means of supplying their proxy force, we can look at other examples of bombing and claim they apply.

Or simply, what Malthus pointed out by spilling much less ink than I did.

I apologize for allowing you to draw me down this culdesac.

[Spezza]

FinnAgain, you juxtaposed my assertion that allied bombing in WWII only hightened German civilian morale to the Nazi war effort against a historically false belief that allied bombing had a significant military affect upon German war industry.

German morale, until mid/late 1944 was high and bombing contributed to civilian perceptions that the war had to be won to prevent further destruction. This happened in England as well during the Battle of Britain. Londoners morale increased under the direct threat of enemy attack.

Furthermore, allied bombing made no significant dent in the ability of Germany to conduct war until mid/late 1944. Finally, when those affects did begin to exert themselves they were connected with the destruction of transportation infrastructure far more so than the destruction of Germany’s industrial ability to arm itself.

As for Israel using WWII style bombing techniques… well if you happen to be in an apartment which is hit by Israeli missiles you might start to question their targeting techniques. As a civilian enduring through the military bombardment of your country, who are you more likely to blame, Israel or Hezbollah?

[FinnAgain]

[QUOTE=Spezza]
FinnAgain, you juxtaposed my assertion that allied bombing in WWII only hightened German civilian morale to the Nazi war effort against a historically false belief that allied bombing had a significant military affect upon German war industry.
[/quote]

I’ve already shown how bombing helped end the war and reduced Germany’s ability to fight it. Even though it’s a non-issue in this thread, there’s no reason to distort it or ignore it by claiming it to be ‘historically false’.

[QUOTE=Spezza]

Furthermore, allied bombing made no significant dent in the ability of Germany to conduct war until mid/late 1944. Finally, when those affects did begin to exert themselves they were connected with the destruction of transportation infrastructure far more so than the destruction of Germany’s industrial ability to arm itself.
[/quote]

Which was it? It’s hitorically false, or it’s true but wasn’t very effective until 1944, which you implied was somehow a good year for Germany?

Besides, transportion is used for, among other things, distributing raw materials, machined goods, troops, weapons, etc… Moreoever, this is actually a parallel to the situation in Lebanon as similar valid dual-use targets have been hit to accomplish exactly the same goal.

[QUOTE=Spezza]

As for Israel using WWII style bombing techniques… well if you happen to be in an apartment which is hit by Israeli missiles you might start to question their targeting techniques.
[/quote]

And if we were arguing honestly, we wouldn’t resort to such petty rhetorical ploys. I couldn’t care less what someone ‘thinks’. The situation is nowhere near analagous to the Total War fought during WWII.

[QUOTE=Spezza]

As a civilian enduring through the military bombardment of your country, who are you more likely to blame, Israel or Hezbollah?
[/QUOTE]

So if someone blames Israel, that means Israel is conducting a WW II style bombing campaign? Or is that just an attempt to change the subject under discussion?