Trump is convinced that his best course is to be the meanest, most vicious bully American public life has ever seen. He’s convinced of this partly due to his own pathology, and partly because vicious bullying has ALWAYS gotten him the loudest cheers at his rallies.
So no adviser can or will be able to talk him out of being the guy who maligns everyone who fails to praise him, who constantly interrupts anyone else in the room, who ridicules the living son of the man who’s talking about his dead son, and who encourages the yahoos to shoot down Democratic voters.
Trump sees all this as “strength.” And his hardcore base agrees.
So moderate Republicans are really left to decide if they want to vote for economic and social chaos, and for ever-decreasing prestige and power on the world stage.
The “October surprise” of Trump making an effort to seem ‘presidential’ is about as likely to happen as aliens landing on the Reflecting Pool and giving each of us a pot of platinum and a unicorn.
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As for likely October Surprises: almost certainly something that is NOT a peace treaty between Saudi Arabia and Israel will be announced with much fanfare that falsely claims it IS a peace treaty between them.
Lots of signings of meaningless papers and smiling and nodding and, of course, a Rose Garden ceremony with Sean Hannity in a booth narrating how this Changes Everything. (It will change nothing.)
At this point I am less concerned than a month ago and two months ago. He never learns it seems (and he did make an effort in 2016 as I recall- but it was an epic fail). I like your reasoning and imagery, I just hope he doesn’t turn to it in a week or two when he has nothing left to lose – a Hail Mary so to speak.
Is Barr going to pretend a Major Crime has been uncovered and arrest a bunch of people who’ve criticized Trump? Are violent-acts-at-early-polling-places, committed by Trump’s white-supremacist fans, going to depress the vote? Will Trump send every American $10,000? (I could use it, I’ll confess. But I still won’t vote for Trump.)
And on the ‘November 3rd or just afterwards’ front: Are agreements with GOP governors and state legislatures going to guarantee that ONLY Trump electors are seated, no matter how the vote goes? Are Trump’s goons going to follow his instructions and shoot up polling places in likely-Democratic precincts? Trump has thousands of lawyers ready to dispute Democratic votes: will this be accepted by the mass of Americans?
The suspense is bad. The only thing likely to be worse is the reality.
I’m looking forward to the next hot mess on the 15th, which will be a town hall. Trump does very poorly in this format, and I could see him attacking voter-questioners directly and forcefully and very unwisely.
Thanks and just when I thought I was going to be able to sleep through the night again soon.
I suspect the Republicans are as sick and tired of Trump as we are and now he is of limited use after three (3 -dammit!) Supreme Court Nominees in his first term. Outside of Barr, I think the establishment will dump him in a minute if he tries to steal the election. I still have concerns he might actually be genuinely elected and THAT makes me more sick to my stomach. I live in heavily traditional Republican territory and they are just looking for any reason at all to justify a Trump vote.
The efforts to cheat are baked in and we can fight those, but if he actually wins at the polls?? Unacceptable!!
I’m frankly surprised that Trump hasn’t sent out another stimulus check. But it may be yet another sign that the Republicans think they’ve got this under control regardless of actual votes cast.
Which is pretty horrifying (no matter how much it gladdens the heart of Vlad Putin).
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I don’t think this is the case. The GOP establishment has thrown in their lot with the “cause” of white supremacy, even if half of white people reject it as disgusting authoritarian fascist bullshit.
But the Republicans aren’t going to try to take a chance that Mike Pence (or equivalent) can energize that base the way Donald can. They own him, and he owns them.
And too many of them have been compromised by Trump, and therefore will be vulnerable to legal consequences if he’s displaced. They will protect his Presidency-for-Life fervently and passionately. Self-preservation is a powerful force.
I think Barr and others in the executive branch most certainly fall in that category. But I think the legislature and judicial are eager to say “Thanks for your help, your services are no longer required”. I used to think that Trump had pictures of McConnell naked with a tethered goat, but I have shifted to believe Mitch has been calling the shots for a while and is able to outsmart Trump into thinking the opposite is true. I am sure they will use him as much as they can - Republicans still rely upon Reagan as a rallying call.
Don’t get me wrong, every one of your scenarios causes me to lose sleep. I am most concerned about multiple panels of electors, but I believe the best defense is the offensive move of Biden winning decisively at the polls.
Sure a close race may nudge someone to try something questionable. But I still believe if there is a good sound trouncing – a landslide or near landslide should end questionable tactics. If the Trump campaign has to contest multiple states I believe it will all be over. The danger is if it ends up like the 2000 race where it all came down to one state deciding the EC and it is a close race. I want Biden to win all the blue states, light blue states, almost purple states, purple states, and a few pink states. That is why I am concerned Trump may charm a few moderates in the last moments to make things close.
Ideally, for Trump to steal the election, he will have to overturn Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania – three or four of which Biden wins by double digits. Maybe Georgia and Iowa too.
I don’t think there are a substantial number of undecideds remaining to pursue. I believe Donald is now fully committed to disqualifying every opposing vote by nefarious legal means.
The vote suppressing is ramping up in North Carolina as we sit here in front of our devices.
I think his handling of COVID has already trashed that play - the complete mishandling seems to have scared the crap out of traditionally right-leaning senior citizens. I also don’t think that anyone who can stand to vote Republican for pretty much anything (definitely all national elections) in 2020 can reasonably be called a ‘moderate’ unless you contort the word so badly it’s practically meaningless.
What would be the word to describe …
Trump is actually an asymptomatic carrier, he has infected both Ms Hicks and Joe Biden,
Joe gets terribly sick, and ends up in hospital, but although still in hospital on election day is on the road to recovery …
OR …Maybe he doesn’t and his running mate becomes the presidential candidate…
Or …Kamala Harris “steps in” for the remaining debates?
I think if Trump is in intensive care on Election Day, hanging onto his life by a thread , at that tipping point where he’s either going to pull through or go to his final reward…well, that would be one hell of an October Surprise.
Unfortunately, that one might work against Biden for two reasons.
One, the suburban women might decide they can pretend they’re voting for Mike Pence, who will probably manage to “accidentally” unplug the ventilator.
Two, it would preclude some even better potential October Surprises — it’s hard to have a schizophrenic break and take Joe Biden hostage when you’re hooked to a ventilator.
Given that the thread is called “What is Trump’s October Suprise”, it seemed a little bizarre to get criticized for not offering an example of Joe Biden’s October surprise, which would actually be a thread hijack.