Sure, but by looking at what would happen elsewhere, the senate may also change hands, serious impeachment would be back on the menu if he manages to win somehow.
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
Now I’m thinking his October Surprise will be to make peace with China, (I think there’s a chance they’re both using this conflict to look tough, fully knowing it’s for show!), all the farmers and tech reliant will cheer. The world markets and the dollar will jump and people will be relieved.
All this AFTER fanning the flames in Democratic cities till he can call in Nat. guard to restore order.
Maybe he’ll even announce he’s closing the child internment camps, then, of course fail to do so. Also he’ll announce he’s got the vaccine and you’re all surely saved! But, of course, it will turn out, he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
It takes a 2/3 vote of the Senate (i.e. 67 Senators) to remove a President in an impeachment trial. Democrats at best could get to 52 or 53 seats if everything broke their way. More likely is a 1-seat advantage or a 50-50 tie with the VP breaking the deadlock.
He probably won’t need an October Surprise if you believe this article:
That’s a fantastic article. Which is why I quoted extensively from it in the “How Can Trump Stay On” thread:
A major concern is that all the training most television and radio (and many print) journalists have undergone teaches them that their job is to Reassure the Public that This New Thing Isn’t All That Different From the Normal Thing. Don’t worry, be happpy!
You hear this all the time, particularly from TV anchors. After a guest details some very alarming fact about the upcoming election, the anchor will provide a Comforting Wrap-Up* that assures viewers that it’s really not all that big a deal; we’re on top of this!
And of course we probably are NOT On Top of This.
It’s certainly too late to retrain them. They believe quite sincerely that even if Trump remains after January 21, things will go on As Normal.
They won’t.
Many in the media therefore are working for Trump, whether they are aware of it or not. The view that ‘it will all work out’ is deeply dangerous to our democratic republic.
All we can do is call out this unwarranted Pollyanna Sleepy-Time attitude where we see it. It will help, too, to keep available clear looks at reality such as that excellent new article in The Atlantic.
(my bolding in quote)
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*I HATE the Comforting Wrap-up. If only there were a button to push on remote controls, so that a banana-cream pie would immediately be thrown in the face of every anchor who offers a Comforting Wrap-up…
Then the Trump team needs to make it a million-to-one shot – as the late Sir Pterry could tell you, those ALWAYS pay off! But you have to take a lot of trouble to get the odds there! Donald, try calling all women “sperm catchers” and use the n-word a lot!
Two possbilities I can think of for an October Surprise:
- Revelations about ‘Crossfire Hurricane’. Discovery in the Michael Flynn trial is exposing all kinds of malfeasance by the FBI andthe Meuller investigation. If the Durham report comes out in October (it probably won’t but…) it may come with indictments of some high level officials like Andrew McCabe.
- This one is a wildcard, but we could see a major peace deal with Saudi Arabia joining Bahrain, Serbia, Kosovo and Oman in recognizing Israel and normalizing relations.
What a coincidence that both of these would benefit Trump! What are the chances, coming from you?
Oh, sorry. I wasn’t aware that only one side’s ‘October Surprise’ counts.
You know, those clowns have been trying to indict McCabe for forever, but speculation is they haven’t been able to get a grand jury to “true bill” it.
And the idea that the investigation was unjustified is bullshit. The bar for starting a preliminary investigation is pretty damn low. The mere presence of Page and Papadopoulos on Trump’s foreign policy team would’ve been enough. Flynn’s publicly published Op-Ed supporting Turkey would’ve been enough on its own to trigger a FARA investigation.
Frankly, given Trump’s multiple associations with known felons - both at home and abroad-, it would’ve been derelict for our intelligence agencies not to keep an eye on his campaign.
All Durham is doing is combing through all the records of a very extensive and complicated investigation looking for procedural errors and investigative shortcuts. They’ve found a few but probably no more than they would’ve found if they gave that level of after the fact scrutiny to any major case. It’s bullshit designed to intimidate.
Trump doesn’t get investigated more than any other President because his enemies are out to get him. He gets investigated more for the same reason that the Joker gets investigated more than Commissioner Gordon.
Just some gentle ribbing at, let’s say, your inclination to only see what might go wrong for Biden.
A surprise (and not a pleasant one for Trump) I’d like to see in October is an arrest of one or more of his children on Tax Evasion charges in state court. With bond denied for flight risk of course. Yeah, I know it isn’t going to happen, but a man can dream, right? And yes, I also realize that even the least savvy individuals would realize it would be politically motivated, but really, why not, it’s not like it isn’t likely legitimate, which is more than we can say of some of the Trump DOJ investigations.
NPR said that ICE is planning big immigration raids. This is a self-destructive October surprise, because it could so easily piss off (I almost said “alienate”) Latino voters, who are showing an (astonishing) small bump for Trump.
Three-pronged:
Mar-A-Lago getting converted into Proud Boys HQ, as the eventual underwear-on-the-outside edict gets under way.
Then the Flying Monkeys are dispatched.
Wow. Dumbasses.
That would be a travesty of a sham of a circus inside a dumpster fire inside a train wreck (to quite Fielding Jake Mellish Tappert).
Moderating: No personal insults, please. No warning.
The pre-October surprise I feared previously was that some senior staff member would sit Trump down and explain to him that the entire White House and Republican Party is solidly behind him (even those crackpots at Lincoln Project who are just doing this stuff for the money). But that is not enough these days. We are ALL behind you, but to stay in power and finish your great plan we are going to need to ‘trick’ some of the left to vote with us. You are gonna have to give them something, and act respectful to the moderate ones until after the election. Then once you are reelected we can throw them under the bus and go back to business as usual. In other words con Trump into trying to con the moderates by buddying up to us.
I believe there are a LOT of Republican moderates who know Trump is bad – but want to vote for him anyway if he would just be a little more - - - reasonable (/sane/human/presidential/humble/etc.) They are looking for an excuse to vote for Trump and if he would court them rather than the hard core supporters on the far right, he could win this election.
Fortunately for all sane people, the debate on Tuesday night proved that he CAN’T be anything other than an extremist, a hate monger, bully, cheat, completely soulless, and of course the usual litany of racist-sexist-corrupt and so on that is too well established to be questioned. As with all things Trump, his own hubris and horribly out of place sense of “normalcy” will be his undoing.
I do not want to tempt fate but at this point it seems to be too late to correct this remarkably stupid strategy with only weeks to the last of these election days. Of course a reversal now would be very transparent and seen for the manipulation it would be, but mostly he is just constitutionally (sorry, bad choice of words). By his very makeup Trump is unable to do the smart thing, he would rather be tough than be smart.
I think he could come up with a reason to bomb Iran or some other place.