I’d go with the heavier but in shape guy–to a point. There’s really not enough info to go on. Below a certain point, being at a lower weight can hurt your athletic performance. I was very thin in junior high school (5’1" and about 85 pounds) and was one of the slowest people on the cross country team because I didn’t have much muscle strength. My mother was always concerned that if I developed a serious illness, that I’d have “nothing to fall back on”.
if you are obese you ARE out of shape period. thus the question itself is wrong. i am strongly inclined to think that the skinny person will live longer. after all, according to surgeon general obesity has about caught up with smoking as a cause of death in USA, and i have never heard of people dying because they can’t bench press enough lbs 
and NO doing an hour of cardio or even 3 hours of cardio a day will not ensure that you are not obese, you can still be 500 lbs.